It’s always a little difficult to critique an organization that I regard as highly as the Ravens. There’s a nagging bit of doubt in the back of my head that wonders what they see that I don’t. And it’s in that spirit that I launch … a critique against Greg Roman’s early season running back time share.
Ty’Son Williams has 101 offensive snaps — exactly 50% of the total offensive snaps for the season. Latavius Murray has 67. Devonta Freeman has 19. While I mean no disrespect to Murray and Freeman — two longtime great backs who rightfully should factor on passing downs — any kind of explosive play potential for this running back group runs through Williams.
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In his 27 rushing attempts, Williams has forced six missed tackles per Sports Info Solutions. That ties him with Myles Gaskin for the highest missed tackle rate of any player with six or more missed tackles this season. Freeman hasn’t had a full-season rate like that since 2017. Murray has never had a missed tackle rate like that. Now, has Williams taken advantage of his opportunities on every carry possible? Probably not. There are a few runs here or there where a different gap should have been chosen. His one fumble could have been extremely costly had Devin Duvernay not made a heads up play.
Williams is currently second in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per attempt, an NFL Next Gen Stats bit that measures how efficient a player is in comparison to their box counts. Williams has faced eight or more men in the box on 40.74% of his runs and is still reeling off big gains.
So after this week’s five-carry effort that was a little baffling, I was curious what Greg Roman would say about it. We got this:
Now, I can understand that Williams shouldn’t be carrying it 80% of the time unless he fully earns that — and that means he can be even better than the statistics show — but I’m surprised at the level of commitment away from what appears on paper to be found money. Latavius and Freeman have no burst left at this point in their respective careers, that’s why they were free agents. LeVeon Bell? Same deal. NFL running backs have a small window in which they are at their peak. Unless you are built like Derrick Henry and literally run over people, the model is that you find good young players and use them as much as you can.
And that makes me curious what all I’m missing: Is this a motivational ploy for a player the Ravens aren’t entirely sure about? Is there context that hasn’t been relayed to the media about things that Williams isn’t doing well?
Lamar Jackson can make any running back into someone who can get good numbers via his ability to draw attention. But I would argue that it’s important to capitalize on those situations when you get them, and Williams is the only player in this backfield that showcases that kind of top-end talent right now. Particularly when you factor in years of control and investment, it’s weird that they’ve been spending so much time with Murray and Freeman rotating in for run downs.
Roman’s got a much better read on the situation than I do, I’m sure. But five carries despite the eye test looking pretty good and the numbers looking spectacular makes me wonder what exactly he’s seeing that I’m not, and if what he’s seeing is a short-term thing that needs to be corrected, or if it’s a long-term thing that threatens the upside of the entire Ravens offense. Because, as unfair as it is that J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are out, all the upside rests with Williams right now.
Ravens Analyst
Rivers McCown is a writer and editor who has written for ESPN.com, Bleacher Report, USA Today, and Deadspin, among other places. He’s edited for Football Outsiders, Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue.