The O’s still have their series ending game vs DC to attend to today; but excuse me as a fan of thinking about Boston’s arrival tomorrow.
The Red Sox head into their game today at Atlanta, at 46-28 and leading the American League East.
They are 21-18 on the road, and a commanding 20-8 against their division foes.
That includes a 4 game sweep of the Birds in Boston in mid-April.
During that series, Adam Eaton, and Mark Hendrickson were still in the rotation, Mora was on the DL, Zaun was starting, and Freel and Pie were sharing left-field.
The O’s are a better team than they were during that series, and they need to show it this week.
Let us start with the basics of why the O’s are better positioned to compete in this series:
1) Instead of facing Eaton, and Hendrickson, Boston will face Berken, and Bergesen.
2) With Mora off the DL, Wigginton is an available bat off the bench.
3) Obviously the O’s have a more potent line-up with Wieters, and Reimold than they did with Zaun and Freel / Pie.
4) Zaun off the bench is an improvement over Moeller.
5) The O’s are a much better team at-home.
Baltimore has won 4 of their last 5 series, but that was against the NL East.
You want to feel good about yourself, you need to win 2 of 3 against the best your own division has to offer.
The scheduled pitching match-ups are:
6/28: Lester vs Berken
6/29: Smoltz vs Hill
6/30: Beckett vs Bergesen
Lester has worked his ERA from 6.07 on May 26th to 4.68 now, with 6 consecutive starts of 5 innings or more and 3 er’s or less.
In that April series vs Baltimore, Lester went 7 innings, without allowing a run, and striking out 9.
Overall, in his 92.1 innings for the year, Lester has allowed 95 hits, 13 homers, 30 walks, with 106 k’s.
Smoltz will be making his 2nd start of the year, after losing this past week to DC. Smoltz was able to provide 5 innings, and 92 pitches. He allowed 7 hits, and 5 er.
You need to get to him early, before he has a chance to settle in.
Beckett has always been more successful in odd-years, and 2009 is proving to not be an exception.
Beckett is 9-3, with a 3.48 era. In 98.1 innings, Beckett has allowed 89 hits, 32 walks, with 94 k’s.
He is holding hitters to a .644 OPS, and has a G/F ratio of 0.93.
Beckett has won 7 of his last 8 decisions, and has not been scored on in the last 16 innings.
These are important starts for each of the Oriole pitchers.
In Berken’s last two outings, he has allowed 6 er in 11.2 innings. He does not have to match Lester pitch for pitch, but he needs to give you 6 innings and keep you in the game.
Boston’s approach will be to take a lot of pitches, and make Berken work. Berken has shown the ability as a professional to throw strikes. He needs to do that tomorrow. You can not nibble against Boston and succeed.
Rich Hill is going to face similar issues on Tuesday. The Red Sox are always extremely patient, and they are going to make Hill show he can get ahead.
As a Boston native, you know this start will be a big-deal for Hill. I would like Hill to come out and use his fast-ball and change-up, and have the Red Sox hitters wondering when he will break out the curve.
This is the type of game that can either keep Hill in the rotation, or force the O’s to look elsewhere.
Hill has 34 k’s, and 37 hits allowed in 37.1 innings of work. Those are indications of the stuff he has. The number Boston will be looking at though is the 24 walks. We will see if Hill can respond to the challenge and throw strikes.
Bergesen’s start will be attempting to win his 5 consecutive decision, and earn his 4th win in June. He has faced NY, Tampa, and Toronto – but this will be his first start vs Boston.
There will be pressure on him regardless, but could be more depending on how the first two games of the series go. Seeing how he responds to the challenge, is what makes this series and 2009 overall interesting.
The secrets of Boston’s success are not hard to understand. The batters take a lot of pitches, and make starters work. As they get the starters out of the game, they feast on middle-relief type pitching.
Their own starters are able to typically provide quality starts and turn it over to their outstanding bullpen with a lead.
If Papelpon takes the ball with the lead in the 9th, the game is over.
The Red Sox are a very good team, but they are not a scary team.
Youkilis and Bay are having outstanding seasons. Lowell, and Drew are still productive even as they age.
Varitek is only batting 228, but his OPS is .801 compared to .672 in 2008.
With Lowrie on the DL, the Sox are still forced to start Julio Lugo at SS. To his credit, Lugo is getting on-base at a decent clip.
Ellsbury has 31 steals, and a 300 batting average; but he is also turning 26 and has a sub .750 OPS. Between his speed and his defense, you can live with that – but there should be no more talk about him being on-par with Adam Jones.
Red Sox fans have been preoccupied by the struggles of Ortiz, but I find the defending AL MVP Pedroia to be the more interesting story.
His on-base % is basically equal to last year, but his slugging is way down. (.385 vs .493 last year).
You do have to be impressed with his 35 walks, and 22 k’s. You know he is going to put the ball in play.
Getting back to Ortiz, he has raised his avg from .186 to start the month to .220 now. He has also hit 7 of his 8 homers during the month.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.