The Terps Are Going To Dance; Now What?

With yesterday’s 73-55 win over Michigan State; the University of Maryland Terrapins are a safe projection to be an at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament.

(Yes, they would be sweating things out if they were to lose their last two regular season games @Northwestern, and home vs. Penn State, and followed that up with a first round loss in the Big Ten Tournament; but that seems highly unlikely at this point.)

The win over the Spartans was Maryland’s 5th consecutive victory, and brings the Terps to .500 overall in the Big Ten. Obviously this is important, as the Big Ten is the strongest conference in the Country, with Michigan in-contention for the top overall seed in the NCAAT, and three other teams (Ohio State, Iowa, and Illinois) also in contention for number 1 or number 2 seeds.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

When Maryland dropped an 89-67 decision to Iowa on January 7th, the Terps fell to 1-5 in Conference play. The difficulty at that time wasn’t seeing flashes of talent, and multiple pieces; it was believing that the Terps were going to find a way to overcome the limitations (particularly lack of a post-presence) of the roster.

Who gets credit for Maryland going 8-4 in the 12 games since?

Certainly the players get credit, and we will get to them shortly.
And yes, Maryland’s schedule was largely front-loaded, and has lessened up a bit here down the stretch.

Overall though, credit has to go to Coach Turgeon.
When it looked like this year was going completely off the tracks, he found a way to get the players to continue to buy in.

Turgeon has preached team defense during the duration of his time as Head Coach at Maryland, and he’s typically had quality defensive teams. Many of this former teams had the benefit of a rim protector. This team did not. The current starting five (Ayala, Wiggins, Morsell, Hart, Scott) is a team of guards and wings. He has them switching continuously, hands up, feet moving, and collectively operating as one. What I really like is that Turgeon has this group rebounding effectively.

I’m starting with credit to Turgeon, because fingers are regularly pointed at him when things go sideways. That includes from me earlier this year. I’ve made no secret that I’ve never cared for how Turgeon’s teams play stylistically. But my biggest complaint earlier this year was the idea that I feel that the mark of a good coach is adjusting to the talent on hand, and didn’t think he was getting the most out of what is here. Well, he’s shut me up, because he’s doing just that at this point. I wanted to see more pressing and trapping. I would have worked to extend the bench with Smart, Dockery, and Graham; Turgeon’s decision to shorten the rotation has worked.

So now what?

In the immediate, as we mentioned above, Maryland has two remaining games here in the regular season vs. Northwestern and Penn State. Take care of business vs. those teams and Maryland will end the year at 11-9. Wisconsin is 10-8, with games at Purdue, and at Iowa remaining. Rutgers is 9-9, with games at Nebraska, and at Minnesota remaining. The Terps split their games with Wisconsin, and Rutgers. In some order, Maryland / Wisconsin / Rutgers are going to be the 6,7, and 8 seeds in the Big Ten Tournament. If Maryland can finish with the 6th seed, they would face the winner of the 11/14 game (likely Minnesota) in a 2nd round game Thursday, March 11th. If MD finishes at the 7th or 8th seed, they would probably have a 2nd round game vs. either Indiana or Michigan State.

Ultimately you play who you have to play, and you worry about your performance more than the opponent. It’s a loaded conference. There are quality teams everywhere. Maryland’s playing their best ball of the year. It would be fun to see them play into the weekend in Indianapolis.

As of this morning, Maryland is 26th overall in the KenPom ratings (29th in Adjusted Offense, 27th in Adjusted Defense). The Terps are 29th in the NET ratings, and have 5 Quad 1 wins. If Maryland beats Northwestern, Penn State, and wins 1 game in the BTT; the Terps are probably looking at a 8 or 9 seed in the NCAAT.

Beyond the immediate, is Coach Turgeon’s contract. Turgeon is currently signed through the ’22-’23 season.

Maryland’s finances were improving pre-COVID, but the Athletic Department still wasn’t exactly flush with cash before the pandemic. Given the pandemic, you can guess that Athletic Director Damon Evans hasn’t had a lot of interest in making a change at Head Coach (and Turgeon’s staff), and bringing in a new Coaching staff unless absolutely necessary. Had MD completely bottomed out this year, and the pitch-forks were out for Turgeon; maybe Evans would have found the dollars somewhere. With MD getting back to the Dance, the more likely outcome is that MD extends Turgeon’s deal another couple of years.

Some will say they still want to see a change, and that this year 10 of Turgeon’s tenure and there should have been more accomplished. But this is the 7th year in the Big Ten, and MD will end this year having been a NCAAT team for the 6th time (including last year). In 4 of those 7 Big Ten seasons, MD has finished Top 3 in Conference play. What’s been lacking has been post-season (BTT, and NCAAT) success. What last year’s team would have accomplished in the post-season would have gone a long way (either way) in-terms of evaluating Turgeon overall. COVID robbed us of that opportunity. I won’t be surprised at all to hear that Turgeon’s current contract is being extended through the ’24-’25 season.

Looking to next year, Maryland will welcome in the well regarded Ike Cornish, and Julian Reese. James Graham will benefit from this time with the program, and be that much more ready to perform next Fall.

Morsell can return if he chooses, and that would be a huge benefit to Maryland.

Wiggins has NBA skills, but a long way to climb up NBA boards to make that leap. If he wants to be paid, he certainly get a contract somewhere in the World. I think his clearest path to the NBA is coming back to College Park for his Senior year, and dominating. Even if that would have him a year older this time next year.

Will Smart, Dockery, Marial, and Revaz return; or will they be looking to leave? With players retaining their eligibility, the transfer market figures to be wild. Maryland has the potential to be very good next year. You have to think Turgeon will be looking for an experienced big.

Quick Takes:

1) I really like Galin Smith for what he is. He’s an undersized big, that doesn’t have a ton of flashy skills, but he battles. He’s willing to do the little things which helps teams win.

2) Wiggins is very talented, and it’s been great seeing the lightbulb go on for him down the stretch. As we talk about who gets credit for MD turning things around this year, certainly have to talk about his improved consistency.

3) Ayala is fun to watch. He plays with some swag. He’s got that old-school YMCA game, but you can tell when’s he’s feeling it as he goes for the heat check. When he’s able to turn the corner, and get to basket, Maryland’s offense is vastly improved. He took 13 foul shots yesterday vs. Michigan State, knocked down each of him, and his FT% skyrocketed. Him regularly getting to the line here on out would be huge.

4) In this five game winning streak, Scott is averaging 8.4 rebounds a game. Can’t be understated how important that is.

5) Hart has scored in double figures the last two games. Before that, his last double figures scoring game in league play was against Iowa January 7th. Him scoring a bit, really helps opens things up. Quality Sophomore year for the Philly product. Big jump from last year. He can defend. He can knock down some shots. And when he started handling the ball, and Ayala was able to get some time off the ball, the offense improved.

6) After the 28 combined points in the back-to-back games vs. Nebraska, Hamilton has scored just 8 points combined vs. Rutgers and Michigan State. Maryland needs multiple things from Hamilton, starting with some scoring off the bench. He can shoot, and he has some good athleticism. At 6’8, 234 lbs, I’d like to see him be a bit more physical. Rebound, and attack the rim.

7) The Terps have a 7.5 man rotation right now including Mona. Smart, Dockery, Graham… can one of those three earn some minutes?

8) This MD team has emerged as a gutty, effort based, defensive focused team. The embodiment of the team is Baltimore’s Morsell. He’s clearly the emotional leader, and he takes up the challenge of defending the best opposing weapons. One of the Big Ten Network announcers has said, “Morsell wouldn’t be a guy that would make All-Big Ten teams, but if you were starting an actual team, he would be someone I’d have to have.” I think that’s a great description of the Senior. Not everyone’s career ends with a banner and confetti. I think Morsell has shown great leadership this year.