Things To Watch With The Orioles In April

In April, the Baltimore Orioles are scheduled to play 26 games. Here are some thoughts on what to look at during this initial month of play.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

1) Who gets off to a hot start? Who buries themselves early? My mentality with players and teams and maybe life in-general is not to get too high or too low. Things average out. Players find their means. Last year’s 60 game season allowed for aberrations. For the most part, full 162 game seasons are different. In an individual year, you might have a guy hit his absolute peak (or conversely a guy could just have an ‘off’ year), but typically guys find their averages. Think Adam Jones. Between Jones’ 2nd full year with the Orioles (’09) and his last (’18), Adam had an OPS between .732 and .839 each season – and typically (as you’d expect) was right around his career average of .771. If you go and look at his individual seasons, you’ll see Months where he absolutely destroyed everything in-sight. But those seasons would be off-set with Months where he couldn’t hit anything. As his track record grew, you just became comfortable going into years and penciling him down for his normal season. When Cedric Mullins struggled mightily over 22 games and 64 ab’s in ’19, it was magnified because he didn’t have a ML track record. There wasn’t that larger confidence that he would find himself. You could look at his MiL career numbers, and realize he was better than he was showing – but how much better? Ultimately it was just 64 ab’s. Had he started off ’19 hot, and then had a poor 64 ab’s later in the year, it wouldn’t have garnered as much attention.

2) The Orioles have 76 games (47% of their schedule) vs. their AL East foes (New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto) this year. In April, they have 13 games vs. the East, including their first 9. We know the O’s aren’t going to be contenders this year; but how competitive can they be vs. their division mates? In ’19, the O’s were 24-52 vs. the East (.315 winning percentage). In ’20, the O’s were 14-26 vs. the East (.350 winning percentage).

3) DJ Stewart is not on the Opening Day roster, as he was placed on the 10 day IL with a hamstring. Orioles Manager Brandon Hyde said Stewart was roughly at 90% on March 26th, and there seems to be confidence he will be able to join the O’s when his 10 day IL stint is up. When he joins the roster, who goes? How does playing time change?

4) Who is going to be the 2nd baseman early on? Valakia? Urias? Ruiz? If it’s Ruiz, we’ll have to remember that not including the last days of Spring Training, he has two professional appearances at 2nd. There are intricacies of playing any position, and certainly that’s true at 2nd. How long until he’s able to largely react, and not be completely in his head about where he needs to be, and what his responsibilities are on any respective play?

5) The Orioles are starting off with 14 pitchers, including 9 relievers. Of those 9 relievers, both Rule 5 picks – Mac Sceroler, and Tyler Wells – made the Opening Day roster. I don’t think that is going to be sustainable with their lack of options. If the O’s like them well enough, they should approach their former organizations and see if a deal is there to be made.

6) Shawn Armstrong comes off the paternity list in 3 days. That should make for an immediate change to the current staff.

7) As we said above, we don’t want to get too high or too low with guys; but you would certainly prefer to see guys get off to quality starts vs. starting slow. How do Kremer and Zimmermann look their first few outings? Does Hays’ monster Grapefruit League campaign carry over? Mullins has abandoned switch-hitting, how does he look vs. lefties?

8) Santander dealt with a mild oblique issue in the final days of camp. It had to have been mild, because he was still getting in swings and other work. Still, will Hyde be comfortable using Santander in the field early on?

9) If Santander is in the field, and Hays and Mullins are patrolling LF and CF; then Mountcastle will be at DH. Does Hyde rotate these four a bit, or does he largely go with the best defensive OF? And again, when Stewart arrives, how is that handled? When in the lineup, does Santander continue to destroy RHP as he did last year?

10) Mancini appears ready to go. Does he pick up where he left off in ’19? If he has a fast-start, do rumors of him being a trade candidate immediately intensify? Do we hear talk of an extension in the works?

11) How does Hyde handle higher-leverage situations with his pen? Does it rotate? Does he lean on Scott and Tate? How do those two perform in late and tight game scenarios?

12) Does Harvey end April in the rotation? He pitched well in Spring Training, and earned his spot. He still throws hard. He doesn’t have to be ’15 Harvey. He does need to be the Harvey we saw in ’18 with the Reds. If he’s that version of himself, he can help. If he’s the disaster he was in ’19, and ’20 with the Angels and Royals; this will be a short-stay in the rotation and probably the roster as a whole.

13) Franco and Galvis are not long-term answers, but both should be solid enough at 3rd and SS this year. Curious to see how they look together defensively.

14) Does Mountcastle get off to a quality start, and increase the Rookie of the Year chatter?

15) I think the Orioles will be a better team later in the season, as more talent ascends. How many games do the O’s win this Month?