Thoughts On Gunnar Henderson’s Slow Start

One of the biggest disappointments of this young Orioles season has been the slow start of Gunnar Henderson. Through the first 17 games, the 21-year-old infielder is batting .167 with just three extra base hits and two RBIs. I’ll be the first to admit that I had high expectations for Henderson coming into the season and his struggles have been frustrating to watch. However, both common sense and advanced analytics indicate that it’s nowhere near time to hit the panic button on MLB’s recently graduated No. 1 overall prospect.  

The most talked about part of Henderson’s game has been his inability to limit strikeouts. He currently has a K% in the fifth percentile, and in the eighth percentile for Whiff% among MLB hitters, having struck out in 22 of his 63 plate appearances.  

While these numbers seem like cause for concern, a look into Henderson’s past indicates that he should figure it out sooner or later. In his first full season in the Orioles farm system, he struck out in 29.3% of his plate appearances with Aberdeen, 30.1% of his plate appearances with Delmarva, and a whopping 58.8% of his plate appearances with Bowie (though there were only 17). He followed that up by striking out in just 23% of his plate appearances in 2022 between time with Bowie and Norfolk, showing an ability to develop and adapt to better pitching.  

When he was called up to the Orioles at the end of the season, that percentage rose slightly to 25.8% but remained low thanks to the lack of data surrounding his weaknesses. With 34 games of MLB film available on him, 2023 was always going to pose a more difficult challenge for Henderson but if his minor league performance is any indication of what he is capable of, there’s no reason to think he can’t overcome it.  

Furthermore, throughout his struggles to make contact, Henderson has continued to show a patient approach at the plate. His 14 walks are tied for fifth in the league and place him in the 99th percentile in BB%, while his low chase rate puts him in the 83rd percentile for taking pitches outside the zone.  

Given these statistics, as well as the fact that fellow rookies Jordan Walker, Corbin Carroll, and Anthony Volpe are all also in the bottom half of the league in both K% and Whiff%, it’s far more likely that Henderson’s strikeout woes are a symptom of his age and lack of experience rather than a sign of any long term problems.  

It’s also important to note that the results haven’t all been bad when Henderson swings the bat.  

Entering play last night, he ranked in the 83rd percentile for average exit velocity and his .304 batting average on balls in play is right around league average, suggesting that even a slight decrease in K% could see his other stats improve significantly.  

He hasn’t had a problem adjusting to higher velocities as evidenced by his .348 batting average against fastballs, and the fact that 41.7% of his balls in play have gone up the middle indicates that he has had no trouble timing up major league pitchers. 

Henderson has also shown an ability to adjust from one at-bat to the next, doubling his batting average from .222 the first time he faces a starting pitcher to .444 the second time he faces them. 

All of these stats are indicative of future success, reaffirming my belief that Henderson’s struggles are a product of a lack of comfortability in the MLB. 

His discomfort should fade on its own over time, but the process could be accelerated if Henderson was not put in a new defensive role almost every night. This season, he has split his time between two of the most difficult positions on the field, with nine starts at third base and three starts at shortstop, as well as two at designated hitter. There’s no question that switching positions has put a strain on his defensive ability, but the statistics suggest that it has also caused problems for him at the plate. 

In 12 plate appearances as a shortstop, Henderson has yet to record a hit while in his 41 plate appearances as a third baseman, he is reaching base at nearly at .366 mark. Furthermore, in 10 plate appearances as a designated hitter, he has recorded two hits and two walks. A possible indication that when he is not worried about his defense, he is putting together better at-bats? Too early to tell, but something to watch.

I am not suggesting that Henderson should be relegated to the role of designated hitter in the long run, but giving him a consistent role on defense could help to alleviate some of the pressure he has been feeling. Whether it’s keeping him stationed at third base or giving him more opportunities as a DH as he works through this slump, the coaching staff needs to make his comfortability a priority given how important his development is to the long-term success of the Orioles. 

Regardless of what is behind Henderson’s slow start, getting him back on track could bring Baltimore’s ability to score runs to a whole new level. Prior to the series against Washington, Henderson had appeared in eight wins and seven losses, slashing .269/.424/.469 in the former and .053/.308/.053 in the latter (numbers prior to last night where he went 0 for 3 with a walk). While it may seem obvious that a player’s batting line would look better in wins, the discrepancy between these totals illustrates how important the young infielder is to the team’s success. 

There will come a time this season when Ryan Mountcastle goes a week without hitting a longball and Jorge Mateo and Austin Hays revert back to their 2022 form at the plate. If Henderson still isn’t hitting at that point, it could cause trouble for the Orioles offense.  

For now, however, relax and let the young man develop. He’s the third youngest player in the league at 21 years and 9 months old, he is walking at one of the highest rates in baseball, and he’s hitting the ball harder than most guys on the roster. Gunnar Henderson will figure it out.