Thoughts on some of the O’s Top Young Players / Prospects

Rowell – Rowell has had 922 Professional at-bats… the goal should be 250 at-bats at Frederick through June 2009, 200 at-bats at Bowie through August 2009, 150 at-bats next Winter in the Dominican… 250 at-bats at Bowie through June 2010… Major League Debut July 2010, a few months before his 22nd bday. By my plan, Rowell would receive another 850 Minor League / Professional at-bats before his Major League call-up… which would be double his current level of professional experience…I would like to see the O’s organization fully make-up with Brooks… having Brooks spend sometime working with Rowell on his foot-work during ST, and several times during the year.

Arrieta – Figures to start in AA… 1/2 a season there, he will be in-line for a ML promotion… was a college pitcher, do not have to use kid gloves with him. Described by many as the most advanced pitcher on the US Olympic team. 113 innings, 120 k’s, 80 hits, 51 walks at Single A Frederick… fastball command an issue.

Tillman – Just spent all of 2008 in AA, and had success… 11-4, 3.18 ERA, 135.2 IP, 115 hits, 154 k’s, 64 walks… Will turn just 21 April 15th, I am sure they want to see him go to either AAA, or back to AA and show an ability to stretch out, give a few more IP… better fast-ball command, limit his walks… he should be an option by the All-Star break..

Matusz – Should start at Bowie, though I am sure he will start at Frederick… Keith Law said when he was drafted that it would a mistake to start him at the lower levels of the minors, because Matusz’s ability to work backwards, and use his off-speed stuff will overwhelm young minor leaguers… with that in mind, I hope he at least advances to Bowie by late May. I would like to see him get 2 or 3 September starts in Baltimore, and have a legit chance to make the rotation in ST 2010… basically following the track that D.Price took with Tampa in 2008.

Olson – Has started 26 games in 2008, was competitive in 13….. Former supplemental 1st rounder, smart kid that was a mechanical engineering major… dominated in AA, and AAA… he should be reviewing tape of the games he was successful in this year… and has to learn to trust his stuff, and throw his fastball over… If healthy, I would like him to take the ball for every start at least through the 1st-half of 2009…. He has pitched scared, he needs to know the organization believes in him, and he does not have to constantly look over his shoulder….

Hernandez – 2008 AA 10-4 2.68 ERA 141IP 112 hits 166 k’s 71 walks 10 homers Big power arm that racks up K’s, and limits hits… a lot to like… The walks are a huge concern, and clearly what he will be looking to improve on in AAA to start 2009…. He has a chance, to be one of the first logical call-ups if someone in the rotation goes down in 2009… and I would not mind seeing that… ultimately though, I see him in relief… I want our bullpen comprised of nearly all former starters… and would like to see him in that roll after 75 innings or so at Norfolk.

Bergesen – 2008 AA 3.22 ERA 148 IP 143 Hits 53 Earned Runs 11 Homers 27 Walks 72 K’s
The chances of any Minor League prospect breaking through and finding Major League success is fairly slim… and made slimmer if you do not have the stuff to get a K per IP… but a Double A pitcher at Bergesen’s age, that has pitched basically 150IP, and allowed less than a hit per IP, with only 27 walks…. is a prospect.. I would not object to him getting a chance to make the rotation out of ST… but I see him going to Norfolk, getting 50-75 innings, and being the 1st callup… unless he is able to get an out pitch, I see him having trouble as a starter in the bigs… like Hernandez, I would like to see him in the O’s bullpen for the 2nd-half…

Liz – Has started 17 games in 2008, was competitive in 9… dominated AA, and was successful in AAA… As of now, I would like him to start the year in the rotation… ultimately, I think his future is in the pen becaue I have doubts he can repeat his mechancis… if he winds up in the pen, he will be positioned as a late inning guy, that can come in and blow people away for an inning or two.

Wieters – Longoria came up April 12th this year… I expect Wieters to arrive in Baltimore by April 15th and be the regular starting catcher…. and immediately the most talented player on the roster, including Markakis. Markakis is very talented in his own right, and obviously more experienced… but Wieters has the higher overall cieling.

Reimold – Not including the AA post-season, his Double A Career: 690 at-bats, 290 avg, 44 doubles, 3 triples, 35 homers, 116 rbi, 116 runs, 78 walks, 129 k’s1XBH per 8.41 at-bats

The O’s should commit to Reimold playing full-time in Baltimore during 2009. Reimold and Scott can split LF and DH, with Huff at 1st.

Snyder – Had a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League… that coupled with him leading the Hawaiian Winter League in hitting last year, and posting a 848 OPS, with 48xbh’s in Frederick this year.. has allowed Snyder to reemerge as a prospect, and open a lot of eyes.

The former 1st round pick is supposed to have slow-feet, but sure hands… With him moving to Bowie in 2009, and Mora’s contract up at seasons end… you wonder if he will be moved to 3rd to start the year?

If Mora regresses from his 2008 season to more normal career levels, you can make a case for Snyder to join the O’s August 1st as the everyday 3rd baseman, if that position switch has occurred.

Probably stays at 1st though…. with 500 AA at-bats next year, it will be much more clear what you have in Snyder… but with production (800+ OPS) he has a great opportunity to land a spot in the O’s everyday lineup in 2010.

Montanez – Should directly take over the roll Payton has had as the 4th OF, with starts in LF, and CF… and put him in the mix at DH as well

Patton – Even if he had not had the labrum surgery, there would have been a great argument he was not ready for the Majors to start 2008…. After missing all of 2008, I would like to see him go to AAA and log 100 innings or so… not very worried about results… just want to see him regularly take the ball… and by year end 2009, and going into 2010 have him as a potential rotation option…A 21 year-old that has a season where they go from AA to the Majors, is a pretty good prospect… Baseball America thought so as well, as he was in their Top 100 lists.. I think a guy that did not rely on his velocity, is a good candidate to rebound from his injury….but even though he had ascended to the Majors in 2007, I take some issue with the idea that he would have been fully ready for a starting job to start 2008 if he had been healthy.. I am not risk adverse, or hesitant to give kids a chance… but if you look at his AA numbers in particular… he was missing some bats, as evidenced by his hits per IP, but his K rate was just ok, and the walks were a bit of a concern… I think he can help us going forward… maybe even by the end of 2009….. But I think it would be a lot to ask this kid to be part of our staff this April…

 

2007 AA Age 21 6-6 2.99 ERA 102.1 IP 96 hits 68 k’s 33 walks 10 homers

AAA 4-2 4.59 ERA 49 IP 44 hits 25 k’s 11 walks 5 homers

MLB 0-2 3.55 ERA 12.2 IP 10 hits 8 k’s 4 walks 3 homers

Berken – Should go to AAA, and put in at least 100 innings… should be in the mix for a spot start at the ML level if needed, and another possible 2nd half 2009 candidate for the ML bullpen as somebody that can stretch and give multiple innings…

Erbe – 2007 A ball 10-12 4.30 ERA 150.2 IP 120 hits 151 k’s 50 walks 21 homers

Quality arm, still quite young… figures to start 2009 in AA…. Have to love the hits and k per IP… I think he is somewhat frail, and I am not sure he holds up as a starter… might be a future closer type…. With the arms ahead of him, he can spend basically all of 2009 in Bowie, getting another 150innings under his belt… by the end of the year, he might be in line for a promotion… more likely, he will follow a similar path to what we saw out of Hernandez, and Bergesen in 2008. I would not be opposed to the O’s using Erbe as trade-bait for a SS prospect.