Between the college highlights and Summer League, it feels safe to say that the 2021 NBA Draft class might be one of the most exciting prospects to watch in recent memory.
There was the matchup between top picks Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green. The eruption of guys like Cam Thomas and Jalen Johnson. Even the rise of Trey Murphy III, Mile McBride and reigning National Player of the Year Luka Garza. With all this talent across the board, this class has set the bar pretty high heading into the upcoming season.
With that, there are a few guys that have the capability to play above expectations and maybe even achieve historical feats in their very first NBA season. Here are a few bold predictions involving three 2021 NBA rookies who could be set to have breakout rookie seasons.
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1. Houston Rockets Guard Jalen Green Will Average 20+ PPG This Season
Whether you look at his film from the G-League or his short stint in the Summer League, Jalen Green more than proved that he will be an elite scoring option at the next level. The No. 2 overall pick steps into the NBA with comparisons to All-Star guard Zach LaVine and even early iterations of the late-great Kobe Bryant.
Although this high praise may seem a bit far-fetched, Green displays attributes as a primary scoring option that do indeed indicate a pathway to becoming an elite offensive threat similar to LaVine and Bryant.
Standing at 6-foot-6, 180 pounds, Green’s combination of wiry body control and above average athleticism allows him to finish with explosion and finesse around the rim. But his athleticism is only one facet of his game as he is a confident ball handler that can score at all three levels and is more than capable of creating offensive looks for himself.
As the groundbreaker for the G-League Ignite program, Green averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists while shooting 46.1% from the field and 36.5% from three. He also notably capped off his G-League season with 30 points, seven assists and five rebounds in the Ignite’s only playoff game.
Green played on a team with guys like NBA veteran guard Jarrett Jack, Brandon Ashley and fellow rookie Jonathan Kuminga who are not floor spacers. So considering the circumstances, Green actually overachieved considering the lack of offensive firepower around him and room to operate.
On a team with guys like Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr., he will now be on a team where he operates around other guys who are legit offensive threats at all three levels. Green may have made scoring look easy in the G-League but joining a Houston team that will be looking to get in shootouts all season is an even more perfect landing spot for him to maximize offensive capabilities.
If Green averages 20+ points per game this season, he will join a decorated list that includes the likes of Larry Bird, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and most recently Luka Doncic. Definitely a solid company to be a part of and definitely puts him ahead of schedule in route to becoming the next Kobe Bryant.
2. Sacramento Kings Guard Davion Mitchell Will Make the All-Defensive team
Otherwise known as “Off Night,” Davion Mitchell has already begun to make early rumblings as a potential All-Defensive team candidate before even playing an official game. The No. 7 pick enters this Sacramento Kings squad looking to infuse the franchise with both a winning mentality and a defensive identity.
In terms of the winning mentality, all Mitchell has done over the last year is win. While averaging 14 points, 2.7 rebound, 5.5 assists and 1.9 steals a game, Mitchell was named 1st-team All-Big 12 and Big-12 All-Defense. He won Big 12 and NABC Defensive Player of the Year.
He helped the Baylor Bears ruin Jalen Suggs and the Gonzaga Bulldogs’ undefeated season to become NCAA National Champions. Then capped things off by leading the Sacramento Kings to a Summer League championship victory over second-year guard Payton Pritchard and the Boston Celtics.
He even became the Co-MVP of the Summer League alongside Brooklyn Nets rookie Cam Thomas while averaging 10.8 points and 5.8 assists on 42.3% shooting from the field and 47.1% from three. The guy has played well above the stigma rooting against the 22-year-old rookie and is debunking the doubters who believed that as a 6-foot guard his defense in the Big 12 conference would not translate to the NBA.
Mitchell has gone viral for his hounding defense on Charlotte Hornets lottery pick James Bouknight and Payton Pritchard who were both viewed as high-volume scorers coming out of college. This is exactly the kind of defensive presence the Kings need and although Mitchell is not a towering figure like Rudy Gobert or Myles Turner, some would argue that perimeter defense is just as valuable in today’s NBA.
Mitchell has the capability of becoming the modern-day Gary Payton or Tony Allen but with a way better three-point shot. In reality this could turn out to be hyperbole if the Kings head coach Luke Walton cannot figure out how to run a three-guard lineup of De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, and Mitchell. But if he knows what is good for him, Walton will make it work and focus on maximizing the talent he has in the backcourt.
Only three players have made an All-Defensive team their rookie year: Spurs big men Tim Duncan and David Robinson as well as Manute Bol. Not only is this elite company on any list, but this would also make Mitchell the only guard to achieve such a feat. Seems safe to say that Sacramento’s 28th ranked scoring defense and dead last defense rating will both be getting a much-needed boost in the standings with Mitchell at the helm.
3. Brooklyn Nets Guard Cam Thomas Will Finish Top-5 in Total Points Scored Amongst Rookies
As arguably the second-best high-volume scorer in the 2021 draft behind Jalen Green, Cameron Thomas continues to show the world that he can light up the scoreboard like only few guys can.
It started this past season at LSU where he led the Southeastern Conference (SEC) in points per game (23.0), total points scored (668) and free throw attempts (220). With that, he also finished 4th in scoring, 3th in total points and 1st in free throw attempts amongst the entire NCAA. If there is one thing this guy can do, it is scoring the basketball.
Then just when you thought college may not have told the whole story, he put on a show at Summer League. While being named Co-MVP with Davion Mitchell, Thomas led the Summer League in scoring, averaging 27 points a game on 42.3% shooting from the field and 36% from three.
With that kind of offensive skill set, my bold claim may not seem so bold. But with the uphill battle he has in front of him, some would argue that the likelihood of Thomas being a top-5 scorer amongst rookies is a reach.
Thomas will be going from being the first option at LSU with the ultimate to being the fifth scoring option at best. Between Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Joe Harris and even recently signed point guard Patty Mills, Thomas will have to fight for playing time.
But one big thing to factor in is that with the health questions surrounding the Brooklyn Big 3, there will be a handful of opportunities for Thomas to shine while the team rests their superstars.
Taking into consideration that the Big 3 will miss at least 10-12 games for rest alone, Thomas will have chances to take center stage and he is in no way shy under the spotlight. The guy dropped 30 points against the Michigan Wolverines in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Then in Summer League, hit a sudden death three to beat the Washington Wizards in double-overtime.
He may not end the season with a crazy overall stat line Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley may end up doing. But Thomas has the capability to fill up the stat sheet in a way that will keep him right in the thick of things in terms of total points scored by season’s end.
This much anticipated 2021 NBA draft class is filled with intriguing talent from top to bottom. These three guys are just a few of the many bright spots from this class as they represent the next crop of highlight reel athletes, defensive studs, and stat sheet stuffers.
If Summer League gave us any indication of what to expect from this rookie class, this year’s draft could hit the ground running early and go down as a top-5 class in the last 25 years. Surely high praise for a group of guys who have not seen live NBA action yet, but this class has more than enough talented players to live up to the hype.
BSL Analyst
Hi there! My name is Jalon Dixon, but most people just call me Jay. As an aspiring, young sports writer and podcaster, I enjoy discussing sports (mainly basketball and football) and sharing my knowledge with others. Growing up right in the middle of Towson University, Morgan State, Goucher College and others, I have gotten the chance to learn so much about a handful of the different athletic teams that thrive here in Baltimore. I want to be the voice of local fans and teams that may not get the same spotlight as others, but still play a big part in our everyday lives. My motto is “Always Embrace Conversation,” so if you ever want to give me feedback on a piece or even just have a friendly sports debate, feel free to email me! Hope you enjoy my work and maybe even learn something along the way.