Tuesday, November 20th was the deadline for all 30 MLB organizations to set their 40-Man Rosters in advance of December’s Rule 5 Draft. The O’s only added one minor leaguer to the roster, protecting RHP Dillon Tate from selection in the Major League Phase. This leaves a handful of high-minors prospects available for other organizations to select. These three prospects strike me as the most likely to be plucked away from the organization in this year’s Rule 5:
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Luis Gonzalez | LH-RP | Age: 26 | 2018 Level(s): Bowie (AA), Norfolk (AAA)
POTENTIAL FOR RULE 5 SELECTION: MODERATE
Gonzalez is a tall lefty with enough velocity to make him a prospect, touching the mid-90s with his fastball. He was one of the O’s representatives in the Futures Game this July. Gonzalez put up dominant numbers in 45.2 innings for Bowie this year, striking out more than a batter per inning and holding opposing lefties to a .591 OPS-against. At 26-years-old, he’s a finished product with ample high-minors time. That—plus his firm fastball from the left-hand side—could cause another club to take a flyer on Gonzalez in the Rule 5 as a hard-throwing LOOGY option.
Martin Cervenka | C | Age: 26 | 2018 Level(s): Bowie (AA)
POTENTIAL FOR RULE 5 SELECTION: MODERATE
Cervenka is coming off a breakout 2018 with Bowie, mashing a career-high 15 homeruns and putting himself on the prospect radar. Coincidentally, the Orioles selected Cervenka in the Minor League Phase of last year’s Rule 5 Draft from the Giants, who he had signed with as a Minor League Free Agent earlier in the off-season of 2017. Cervenka’s ceiling as a passable backup catcher with enough pop to spot-start could make him an intriguing second-string or third-string catching option in this year’s Rule 5.
Jay Flaa | RH-RP | Age: 26 | 2018 Level(s): Bowie (AA)
POTENTIAL FOR RULE 5 SELECTION: LOW
Flaa has climbed slowly through Baltimore’s system since being selected in 2016’s sixth-round. He posted a pristine 2.77 ERA for Bowie in 2018, pitching to career highs in average-against and WHIP, striking out more than a batter per inning. Flaa’s stuff is fringy-average, relying on sequencing and strikes more than any one carry pitch that can miss bats. His high-minors track record could entice a team to take a flyer on him as a mopup guy or long reliever.
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Later this week we will look at players the O’s could target in the Rule 5.
A native of Washington, D.C., Adam will be periodically contributing scouting pieces on Orioles prospects for Baltimore Sports and Life. Currently, he’s the Assistant Director of Professional Evaluation at 2080 Baseball. Previously, Adam worked in the Baseball Operations departments of the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers after serving as a Senior Prospect Writer for Baseball Prospectus. You can follow him on Twitter: @2080adam. Adam can be reached at amcinturff@2080baseball.com for all podcast and media requests.