Three Weeks In: Where the NBA Season Stands

Three weeks into the season, Luka Doncic is scoring at a pace no one but Wilt Chamberlain has matched. San Antonio has won eight straight. Oklahoma City has lost three starters to long-term injuries and is 8-2 anyway. The defending champion Knicks are 5-4. Philadelphia has the East’s best record while barely outscoring opponents, and Memphis, a lottery team on paper, opened 6-0.

We entered the season with Oklahoma City and San Antonio as the two best teams in the league, and that part has held. Nearly everything beneath them has moved. Here is where things stand, and where we think they are headed.

Records and ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) are as of the evening of Nov. 9. Other advanced numbers are from NBA.com through Nov. 7. Philadelphia (9-2) and Boston (8-2) meet Tuesday night in Philadelphia, the first game for Jaylen Brown and Paul George against their old teams.

Power Rankings

These are a neutral-floor judgment. Title odds fold in health and the path through each conference. “Pre.” is each team’s rank in our preseason preview.

#	Team	Record	Pre.	Title %	The case
1	San Antonio Spurs	8-2	2	24%	Eight straight wins, first in BPI, and outscoring opponents by 10.3 points a game. Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level, and the Harper lineup is working.
2	Oklahoma City Thunder	8-2	1	20%	Four straight wins without Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren, and added wing Nique Clifford in the season’s first trade. Still the best defense in BPI. The title odds depend on who is healthy by April.
3	Boston Celtics	8-2	9	7%	Outscoring opponents by 10.7 points a game, the East’s best margin, and third in BPI. Tatum is averaging 27.9 points and 8.0 assists, and Paul George has been a revelation. The East’s most complete team so far.
4	Detroit Pistons	6-3	6	6%	The league’s best defense, now with 38% 3-point shooting, but two straight losses. Jalen Duren has barely played, and the second-creator question remains.
5	Los Angeles Lakers	9-2	11	5%	Five straight wins, including Sunday in Detroit. Doncic is averaging 40.1 points, and the defense has been average, not bad. Still a one-man offense: 99.1 points per 100 possessions when he sits.
6	Houston Rockets	7-3	7	6%	One of the league’s best offenses with VanVleet back, but back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Phoenix.
7	Philadelphia 76ers	9-2	4	7%	The East’s best record, but outscoring opponents by only 3.1 points a game after a 7-0 start in close games. Maxey has been the star. Expect the close-game luck to even out.
8	New York Knicks	5-4	3	7%	Three straight wins, including at Cleveland in the conference finals rematch. The half-court offense and Mikal Bridges are the problems; the title case hasn’t gone anywhere.
9	Minnesota Timberwolves	8-3	12	3%	Four straight wins, the league’s best point differential (+11.1) and a top-three defense, but Anthony Edwards is out at least two months. This ranking reflects the next two months.
10	Cleveland Cavaliers	5-5	5	3%	Two blown 15-point leads, Peyton Watson still fitting in, and the two-big lineups struggling. The talent is still top-five in the East.
11	Toronto Raptors	5-4	10	3%	Leading the league in forced turnovers without Kawhi Leonard. They move up when he’s back.
12	Denver Nuggets	5-3	8	3%	Murray is scorching, but the offense is middle of the pack and the defense allows the league’s second-best shots. Jokic’s health is the question.
13	Golden State Warriors	7-3	20	1%	Seven straight wins after an 0-3 start. Curry is averaging 31.3 points, and Yaxel Lendeborg looks like a top-30 player.
14	Portland Trail Blazers	6-3	17	1%	Better with one of Morant or Lillard than both. With Morant out a month, the rotation has sorted itself out.
15	Atlanta Hawks	7-4	15	<1%	Four straight wins, the league’s best shot quality and two wins over Washington. The paint defense keeps them here.
16	Memphis Grizzlies	6-3	23	<1%	The surprise of the West, though they’ve lost three straight, BPI has them 20th, and their 41.6% 3-point shooting won’t last.

These sum to roughly 96%. Out of the top 16 since the preseason: Indiana, Miami and Orlando, all injured or struggling.

Nos. 17-30: 17. Dallas, 18. Miami, 19. Orlando, 20. Indiana, 21. Phoenix, 22. Washington, 23. New Orleans, 24. Charlotte, 25. Utah, 26. LA Clippers, 27. Chicago, 28. Brooklyn, 29. Milwaukee, 30. Sacramento.

The Injury Wave

The biggest story of the first three weeks isn’t a team. It’s the injury report.

• Oklahoma City: Jalen Williams (ankle and fibula), Cason Wallace (labrum) and Chet Holmgren (knee) are out long-term. Alex Caruso has a sprained ankle. That’s four All-Defensive players out at once.
• Minnesota: Anthony Edwards is out at least two months after a knee procedure, a day after scoring 47 in Cleveland.
• Utah: Jaren Jackson Jr. tore his MCL, and Lauri Markkanen sprained his shooting wrist.
• Portland: Ja Morant is out at least a month with a hamstring injury.
• Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton is out at least two weeks with a hamstring injury, and Ivica Zubac has been out. The Pacers played one game with only six available players.
• Toronto: Kawhi Leonard has missed time with left knee swelling.
• Orlando: Paolo Banchero (ankle) and Jalen Suggs (knee) are out.
• Detroit: Jalen Duren played 38 minutes before a hamstring injury.

The Thunder show how much this changes the picture. In the first three games without Williams, Wallace and Holmgren, they allowed 122.1 points per 100 possessions, one of their worst stretches in three years. They led the league in points off turnovers in each of the last three seasons; over a four-game stretch they averaged 11.8, third-worst in the league. Then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 43 with a go-ahead 3 in Cleveland, and they haven’t lost since. They are 8-2 and still first in BPI’s defensive rating.

The worry is the load on Gilgeous-Alexander. His true shooting percentage of 55.2% would be the lowest of his career, with career lows in paint shooting and free throw rate. Oklahoma City can survive November this way. Whether it can win in May depends on how many of those four come back, and how well.

Oklahoma City has already started patching the roster. On Monday it made the season’s first trade, getting wing Nique Clifford from Sacramento for two second-round picks. Clifford was the 24th pick in 2025, a selection the Kings traded into from the Thunder on draft night. He averaged just under 13 points, five rebounds and four assists over the final two months of last season, then played only 50 minutes in Sacramento’s first eight games this season. CBS gave the Thunder an A-minus: a 6-foot-8 wing with several years of cheap control, bought with picks they won’t miss. It’s the same kind of move that brought them Jared McCain last February.

The MVP Race

Luka Doncic has made this his race for now. He’s averaging 40.1 points, scored 53 against Portland, and has seven straight games of 35 or more. Only Chamberlain has averaged 40 through the first nine games of a season. Doncic is taking 13.7 3s a game and making 41.9%. The Lakers have outscored opponents by 140 points with him on the floor and been outscored by 63 without him. Giannis Antetokounmpo wondered aloud whether Doncic was the best scorer ever.

Victor Wembanyama opened 1-for-13 against the Thunder and has been dominant since: 29.1 points a game and career highs of 52 points and 24 rebounds in a one-point win over Dallas. He leads the league in alley-oops at 3.8 a game, more than twice anyone else, and the Spurs are first in BPI. In the preseason GM survey, 77% picked him for MVP.

Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an injured team on his least efficient shooting. Jayson Tatum is back at an All-NBA level. Stephen Curry, at 38, is averaging 31.3 points and is 40-for-40 from the line. Tyrese Maxey leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring. Nikola Jokic has started slowly; CBS has tied his 3-point decline to a wrist injury late last season.

Our projection: 1. Doncic, 2. Wembanyama, 3. Gilgeous-Alexander, 4. Tatum, 5. Maxey. Doncic’s numbers will come down, and Wembanyama has the better team case. If the Spurs finish first and Doncic misses time, this flips.

The Rookie Race

The draft’s top picks haven’t led the race. Golden State’s Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick and a 24-year-old rookie, scored 26, 26, 31 and 37 points in a four-game stretch. “Changes everything,” Steve Kerr said.

Cameron Boozer has a triple-double for a winning Memphis team. Caleb Wilson had 30 points and 14 rebounds against Washington. Darius Acuff Jr. is taking 23.6 shots a game in Sacramento and has gotten more efficient. AJ Dybantsa missed four games with an ankle injury and has been productive since. Darryn Peterson, the No. 2 pick, has had a hard start on a 1-9 Utah team.

Our projection: 1. Lendeborg, 2. Boozer, 3. Wilson, 4. Dybantsa, 5. Acuff. We picked Peterson in the preseason. He’s sixth today.

The East

Philadelphia (9-2) has the East’s best record, and scouts credit Tyrese Maxey. “It’s Maxey,” one East executive said. “He’s making them go.” LeBron James and Nick Nurse have built a working relationship that executives have noticed, and Anfernee Simons has given the bench scoring. But through Nov. 7 the Sixers were 7-0 in games within five points in the last five minutes, with a net rating of only +2.5 and an offense in the bottom 10. Even at 9-2, they’ve outscored opponents by only 3.1 points a game. Teams that win close games at that rate usually stop. Maxey is also playing nearly 38 minutes a night, second in the league. And with Ariel Hukporti out for the season, Philadelphia is $1.8 million under its hard cap and can’t easily add the backup big scouts say it needs. Tuesday’s game against Boston is the first real test of how the Sixers match up with the East’s other top team.

Boston (8-2) beat Milwaukee by 20 on Sunday and had a +10.3 net rating through Nov. 7. Jayson Tatum is averaging 27.9 points and 8.0 assists, though he’s making only 31.3% of his 3s, and Derrick White is at 32.7%.

The surprise has been Paul George, the return in the Jaylen Brown trade. At 36, he’s averaging 20.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists and a career-high 2.3 steals, fourth in the league. He’s making a career-high 42.5% of his 3s on a team-high 8.1 attempts, and 46% on 5.6 catch-and-shoot attempts a game; among players taking at least five of those, only Stephen Curry has been better. Brown has never shot 40% from 3 in a season. “He’s very hard on himself,” Joe Mazzulla said. “Holds himself to a very high standard.”

George has changed Boston’s defense, too. He’s third in the league in deflections, and the Celtics’ opponent turnover rate of 17.4% ranks sixth; in Mazzulla’s first four seasons, it never topped 13.1%. Add one of the league’s biggest jumps in free throw rate and a paint defense anchored by Mitchell Robinson and Neemias Queta, and Boston has looked like the East’s most complete team.

Detroit (6-3) has the league’s best defense without much help from Jalen Duren, though it has lost two straight, to Philadelphia and the Lakers. The surprise is the shooting: Cade Cunningham is making a career-high 37% of his 3s, the team is at 38.1%, and Duncan Robinson is second on the team at 17.9 points.

New York (5-4) won at Cleveland on Saturday, the first meeting since last year’s conference finals sweep. The backup center spot, the big offseason question, has been fine: Andre Drummond ranks fourth in the league in offensive rebounding percentage, and the Knicks lead the league in second-chance points. The problem is the half-court offense, 29th in scoring before an offensive rebound. Mikal Bridges is at career lows in scoring and efficiency, and Jalen Brunson has shot poorly after offseason wrist surgery. The Karl-Anthony Towns contract talks remain paused.

Cleveland (5-5) has blown two 15-point leads. The Cavs have been outscored badly with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley on the floor together (-15.0 per 100 possessions) while their one-big lineups have been excellent, and Mobley is 17-for-27 from 3. Peyton Watson hasn’t fit yet.

Toronto (5-4) is forcing a league-leading 20.9 turnovers a game without Leonard, and Scottie Barnes is averaging 24.4 points. Atlanta (7-4) leads the league in shot quality but has struggled in the paint.

At the bottom of the playoff picture, Miami (4-6) has a bottom-four defense, gives up the most 3s in the league, and players have said publicly they don’t trust each other on the floor. Indiana (3-7) has had its projected starting five together for one game. Orlando (2-7) is without its two best players.

Our East projection: 1. Boston, 2. Detroit, 3. Philadelphia, 4. New York, 5. Cleveland, 6. Toronto. Play-in: Atlanta, Miami, Orlando, Indiana.

The West

San Antonio (8-2) started 0-2 and hasn’t lost since. Mitch Johnson started Dylan Harper next to De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle and stuck with it. Castle has moved off the ball, taking 6.3 catch-and-shoot 3s a game, up from 2.9 last season, and the Spurs lead the league with 84% of their 3s coming off the catch.

The Lakers (9-2) lead the league in offense, with an effective field goal percentage of 60.0% that would be the best in NBA history. The defense has been average, and Doncic has been active defensively, but the offense collapses when he sits.

Houston (7-3) was No. 1 in both ESPN’s and NBA.com’s rankings last week, then lost to Minnesota and Phoenix. Fred VanVleet has steadied the offense, and Kevin Durant, at 38, has the best shot quality of his 14 tracked seasons.

Minnesota (8-3) has kept winning without Edwards, including a win over Houston, behind one of the league’s best defenses. The next two months will test it.

Memphis (6-3) started 6-0. All 20 previous teams to do that since 2004 made the playoffs. Then the Grizzlies lost three straight, to New Orleans in overtime, Indiana and Oklahoma City, and BPI ranks them only 20th. Their 3-point shooting won’t hold, but the four starters around Ty Jerome are all on rookie contracts, and the front office holds nine tradable first-round picks. “For where they are in their arc, they’re pretty freakin’ good,” a West coach said.

Portland (6-3) has been +25.2 per 100 possessions with only one of Morant and Damian Lillard on the floor, compared with +5.2 with both. Scoot Henderson has started in Morant’s place, and Jrue Holiday has thrived as a sixth man.

Golden State (7-3) turned an 0-3 start into a seven-game winning streak behind Curry and Lendeborg. Denver (5-3) has Jamal Murray averaging 27.3 points and making more than half his 3s, but its offense fell from first last season to the middle of the league. Dallas (6-4) has Cooper Flagg averaging 25.2 points; only LeBron James, Doncic, Durant and Zion Williamson have averaged that many at 20 or younger.

At the bottom, Utah (1-9) has lost eight straight since losing Jackson and has gone 4-for-21 on clutch shots from Peterson and Keyonte George. Phoenix (3-5) has the league’s worst defense and can’t rebound. The Clippers (2-7) are likely sellers, with Brook Lopez, Kris Dunn, Rui Hachimura, Max Strus and Derrick Jones Jr. all candidates to move.

Our West projection: 1. San Antonio, 2. Oklahoma City, 3. L.A. Lakers, 4. Houston, 5. Minnesota, 6. Denver. Play-in: Golden State, Portland, Memphis, Dallas.

Projected Records

Our projected final records, with each team’s preseason FanDuel win total for reference.

East	Now	Pre. line	Proj.
Boston	8-2	51.5	58-24
Detroit	6-3	47.5	55-27
Philadelphia	9-2	49.5	52-30
New York	5-4	51.5	51-31
Cleveland	5-5	48.5	49-33
Toronto	5-4	46.5	48-34
Atlanta	7-4	43.5	46-36
Miami	4-6	44.5	40-42
Orlando	2-7	43.5	38-44
Indiana	3-7	44.5	37-45
Washington	4-6	34.5	32-50
Charlotte	3-7	37.5	30-52
Brooklyn	2-8	24.5	25-57
Chicago	1-8	29.5	24-58
Milwaukee	1-9	25.5	22-60

West	Now	Pre. line	Proj.
San Antonio	8-2	60.5	61-21
Oklahoma City	8-2	61.5	57-25
L.A. Lakers	9-2	45.5	52-30
Houston	7-3	48.5	52-30
Minnesota	8-3	46.5	48-34
Denver	5-3	48.5	48-34
Golden State	7-3	36.5	45-37
Portland	6-3	41.5	45-37
Memphis	6-3	30.5	41-41
Dallas	6-4	33.5	39-43
Phoenix	3-5	38.5	32-50
New Orleans	4-6	28.5	31-51
Utah	1-9	37.5	28-54
LA Clippers	2-7	27.5	25-57
Sacramento	1-9	20.5	19-63

The biggest moves from the preseason market: Golden State (+8.5), Memphis (+10.5), the Lakers (+6.5) and Detroit (+7.5) up; Utah (-9.5), Indiana (-7.5) and Charlotte (-7.5) down. Oklahoma City falls four and a half wins below its line because of the injuries, but still finishes second in the West.

The Wizards

Washington was 4-3 a week ago and is 4-6 now, after losing twice to Trae Young’s old team in Atlanta and once in Oklahoma City. NBA.com noted four of the Wizards’ first six games came against Milwaukee, Chicago and a shorthanded Charlotte, so the start may have been flattering. Through 10 games, Washington is scoring 108.1 points per 100 possessions and allowing 113.0, a -4.8 net rating.

The players who matter most have delivered. Anthony Davis is averaging 23.4 points and 9.3 rebounds on 50% shooting, though he has missed two of the 10 games. Kyshawn George has been the second-best player: 18.5 points and 5.2 assists, shooting 49% from the field and 37% from 3. AJ Dybantsa missed the first four games with an ankle injury and is averaging 16.0 points and 5.8 rebounds in six games. He’s getting to the rim and the line, with 4.8 free throw attempts a game, but making only 27.8% of his 3s.

Young’s pass-first approach has carried over from the preseason. He’s averaging 8.9 assists on 12.8 shots a game; his career average is 18.3 shots. The shooting hasn’t followed: 39.8% from the field and 28.6% from 3, with 3.4 turnovers a game. Alex Sarr is making 67.4% of his 2-pointers but only 20.7% of his 3s.

The bigger problem is the whole team’s shooting. The Wizards are making 30.2% of their 3s on 31.5 attempts a game. Add the rebounding, where Washington ranks last in offensive rebounding and near the bottom in defensive rebounding and forced turnovers, and the Wizards have been outshot by at least 10 attempts in four of their first six games. Off the bench, Deandre Ayton is shooting 69% in 15 minutes, and rookie Tre Johnson is scoring 9.6 points on 37% shooting.

Our projection: 32-50, 11th in the East and just outside the play-in, a 15-win improvement on last season. The ceiling is higher if the 3-point shooting gets to league average. The floor depends on Davis staying healthy.

The NBA Cup: Halfway Through Group Play

The fourth NBA Cup is about halfway through group play. Each conference has three five-team groups, and each team plays four group games. The three group winners in each conference advance, along with one wild card: the second-place team with the best group record. The quarterfinals are Dec. 4-5, and new this year, the semifinals on Dec. 8-9 are played at the higher seed’s arena instead of a neutral site. Each player on the winning team gets $514,971.

Point differential is the second tiebreaker, after head-to-head, so margin matters. Overtime points don’t count toward it.

Group	Leader	Record	Point diff.	Also unbeaten
East A	Detroit	1-0	+16	Orlando (1-0)
East B	Cleveland	1-0	+24	Miami (1-0)
East C	Boston	2-0	+53	Atlanta (1-0)
West A	Dallas	2-0	+17	Denver (1-0)
West B	Minnesota	2-0	+32	Oklahoma City (1-0)
West C	Golden State	1-0	+17	San Antonio (1-0)

Standings through Nov. 7, per NBA.com.

The defending champions are in trouble. The Knicks won last year’s Cup, beating the Spurs. This year they lost their opener at Philadelphia by five and sit last in East B, with Cleveland and Miami both 1-0. With Indiana, Cleveland and Miami left, New York likely needs to win out.

Boston is in the best position in the East. The Celtics are 2-0 and have outscored opponents by 53 points. They finish at Washington and at home against Atlanta, the only other unbeaten team in the group.

West B may come down to the last game. Minnesota (+32) and Oklahoma City (+31) both have big margins and meet in the group finale. Memphis is 0-1 after a 31-point loss to the Thunder.

Philadelphia’s wild-card case took a hit. The Sixers are 1-1 with a -19 differential after losing in Cleveland by 24.

The Wizards have a chance. Washington is 1-1 with a +9 differential after beating Charlotte and losing in Atlanta. That one win matches the franchise’s total from the first three Cups combined (1-11). The Wizards finish at Chicago and at home against Boston. A win over the Bulls and a split elsewhere in the group would put them in the wild-card conversation.

Games to circle: Cleveland at Miami and Miami at Philadelphia (East B), Golden State at San Antonio (West C), Boston at Washington (East C), and Minnesota at Oklahoma City (West B).

Our Cup Projections

Group	Our pick to win	Why
East A	Detroit	Leads at +16, and Orlando is without Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs.
East B	Cleveland	Leads at +24 and plays Miami’s bottom-four defense next.
East C	Boston	2-0 at +53. A win over Atlanta in the finale locks it.
West A	Dallas	Already 2-0, with Cooper Flagg playing his best basketball. Denver at home is the danger.
West B	Oklahoma City	Hosts Minnesota in the finale, and Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards.
West C	San Antonio	Hosts Golden State in the group’s biggest game.

Wild cards: Atlanta in the East, which should finish 3-1 with games at Chicago and home against Charlotte left. Minnesota in the West, whose +32 differential gives it the edge over any 3-1 runner-up.

Quarterfinals: Boston over Atlanta and Detroit over Cleveland in the East. Oklahoma City over Minnesota and San Antonio over Dallas in the West.

Semifinals: Boston over Detroit. San Antonio over Oklahoma City, with the Thunder still short three starters in December.

Final: San Antonio over Boston. The Spurs lost last year’s final to the Knicks; this time Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level and the Spurs are the healthiest contender in the West.

Four Changes the NBA Should Make

1. Play each group’s final games at the same time. On the last group night, teams already know exactly what margin they need, so blowouts get extended and wild cards get decided by who plays last. Soccer fixed this decades ago by starting final group games together. The NBA should tip each group’s last games simultaneously.

2. Cap point differential per game. Margin is the second tiebreaker, which rewards running up the score on bad teams and penalizes overtime games, where the margin counts as zero. Capping each game’s margin at about 15 points would still reward winning big without turning the last five minutes of a blowout into a tiebreaker race.

3. Give the winner something that matters in April. Players like the prize money, but the Cup still means little for the season. A modest competitive reward, such as winning the first regular-season tiebreaker or a guaranteed play-in spot, would make the knockout games feel like they count.

4. Count the final in the record books. Quarterfinals and semifinals count as regular-season games, but the championship game’s stats don’t count anywhere. If the league wants the Cup taken seriously, the stats from its biggest game should count toward career and season records.

Is the NBA Really a Young Man’s Game?

The Ringer’s Kirk Goldsberry argued last week that the league is getting younger because the modern game has become too fast and too punishing for older players. The trend is real. Several of his supporting claims don’t hold up.

His own numbers cut the other way. Players 30 and older were 17.5% of the league last season but played 19.8% of the minutes. Veterans who stay in the league get more minutes per player than younger ones, not fewer.

The roster has changed, too. Every team now carries three two-way players, nearly all of them young, and most players now enter the league at 19 instead of 22. A league that starts its players three years younger will look younger even if nobody ages faster.

Stars aren’t playing more. They’re playing less, and faster. We looked at minutes per game for the top 25 scorers in four seasons:

Season	Avg. minutes	Averaging 38+	Under 34
1997-98	37.9	13	2
2007-08	37.7	11	1
2015-16	34.7	1	7
2025-26	33.9	1	13

The drop came after 2008, as rotations deepened and load management took hold. Minutes are down about 11%. Pace is up by roughly the same amount, from 90.3 possessions per game in 1997-98 to 99.5 this season, so the average star plays about the same number of possessions a game as in 1998. What changed is how hard those possessions are: more sprints, more cuts, more stops and starts.

The worst injuries aren’t sparing young players. Players suffer Achilles tears, on average, in their age-28 season. This season’s injury list includes Jalen Williams, Holmgren, Edwards and Jackson, all in their mid-20s. Meanwhile, Durant (38), James (41), Curry (38) and George (36) are all playing well for winning teams.

Our take: It’s a young man’s league by headcount, not by who teams trust when it matters. The game didn’t get too fast for veterans. Depth got good enough, and the second apron got expensive enough, that teams replace them. The fix for injuries probably isn’t fewer minutes; teams have already cut those. It’s managing how intense the minutes are, treating calf strains as warning signs, and paying for depth. The 2006 roster expansion was followed by a 39% drop in games lost to injury.

Quick Hits

• Sacramento is all in on Acuff. Darius Acuff Jr. has the second-highest usage rate for a rookie in NBA history, and the Kings traded Nique Clifford in part because there were no perimeter minutes left for him. CBS gave Sacramento a D for the deal. Acuff is taking 23.6 shots a game to Domantas Sabonis’ 8.6, but Sacramento sources insist the two get along. A Sabonis trade still makes sense for both sides.
• Expect more trades after Dec. 15. About 29% of the league can’t be traded until then because of contracts signed over the summer.
• The bottom is crowded. Seven teams have one or two wins. Under the new lottery rules, the worst records aren’t worth chasing, so watch who tries to climb into the 4-10 range by March.
• Memphis has the assets to add a star. The Grizzlies hold nine tradable first-round picks and project to have major cap space next summer.
• The West owns the East so far. The West was 10-2 in interconference games through the first two weeks.
• Doncic is chasing records. At his current pace he would break Curry’s single-season record of 402 3s and Kobe Bryant’s non-Chamberlain record of 10 50-point games.

Where It’s Headed

Three weeks in, the season’s shape is clearer than its standings. The Spurs and Thunder are the two best teams again, and the Thunder got there with three starters in street clothes. The Sixers are 9-2 on close-game luck. The Lakers are 9-2 on one historic scorer. Boston, which changed less than people think, may be the East’s most complete team.

We entered the season picking Oklahoma City over New York in the Finals. With the Thunder’s injuries and the Knicks’ slow start, our projection today is San Antonio over Boston. The Spurs are healthy, deep, and have the player most likely to be the best on the floor in June. If Oklahoma City is whole by the spring, that changes again.