To be the man, you have to beat the man

To be the man, you have to beat the man.

The King of the Hill in the AFC North (and currently the NFL) remains the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We all know that Pittsburgh beat Baltimore three times last-season, have the Ravens closed the gap?

Starting Quarterback: Flacco vs. Roethlisberger

Fans of the Purple & Black clearly lack love for Roethlisberger, but you have to respect what he has accomplished in his career. Prior to the playoffs, many Steeler fans were complaining about the vast drop in his play in 2008 to 2007. I think with a guy like Roethlisberger, you can essientially remove the stats from the arguement – he has established who he is. He might not be in the exclusive club of the true-elite QB’s, but he is in that next tier. The 27-year old is hard to bring down, and makes plays out of nothing. If there is a positive from the Ravens perspective, it is that after 5 full-seasons in the league, it should be fair to say his ceiling has been reached.

You still have to take Roethlisberger over Flacco, but that gap is going to continue to close. Flacco gets to build off of his experience last year, and have a full off-season to process what he saw. A full off-season of mini-camps, and the training camp as the starter. There is no reason to believe he will not be improved this year. Even last year, Flacco had a slightly higher QB rating vs. Roethlisberger. The reason you would still have to give Pittsburgh the edge, is that Roethlisberger has shown he can make plays on the biggest stages when needed.

Edge – Pittsburgh

Running Back: McGahee, Rice, McClain, Peerman vs. Parker, Mendenhall, Moore, Davis

In the AFC Championship Game, McGahee was excellent in blitz pickup, and ran hard. He has followed that up with an offseason geared towards reestablishing his name. He only had 170 carries last-year, so he should be fresh. With a strong offensive-line in front of him, and defenses having to respect Flacco’s ability to strike down the field; the running game should continue to face less 8 man fronts. I am interested to see more of McGahee, and see if has a return in the burst he has seemed to lack the previous two seasons. Regardless of where McGahee is, Rice is going to eat into his time. In fact, there is a great chance of Rice ending camp as the starter. Rice was a workhorse at Rutgers, but I am not sure if the Raven coaching staff is ever going to let him consisently get over 20+ carries a game as a pro. Even if Rice never gets that level of carries, he will continue to be a weapon catching the ball out of backfield. McClain seems to be the forgotten man in discussions about the Ravens running game. He was shut-down against the Titans, and Steelers in the playoffs, but he was playing with one leg. Neal’s departure means McClain will get more time as the lead-blocker, but at the goal-line, I know who I want to carry the rock. Peerman had the big 40 yard-dash time at the combine, and reminds me of Rice with those same squat-legs, and burst. He also has the ability to catch out of the back-field. Going to be hard for him to see the field, but I think he adds good depth.

I am guessing Pittsburgh will not use Parker as the starter. He has always been slight, and his game is built on speed. I think they will want to use him off the bench against defenses that are tired-out, looking for the home-run. With the Ravens ability to rotate bodies on the D-line, he should remain a non-factor against Baltimore. If Parker is coming off the bench, the Steelers will likely start 2008 1st-round pick Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall’s rookie season was ended in Week 4 when Ray Lewis seperated his shoulder. Even though he did not play much at all last year, his blitz pick-up should be better with a full season in the league. At 225 lbs, he is a bigger back, that will have the ability to pound the ball between the tackles. I see a lot of Mendenhall for the first three Quarters of games, that turns the ball over to Parker in the 4th. Moore helped Pittsburgh out in a big way last year when Parker and Mendenhall were out, with 40 receptions.

Edge – Baltimore

Wide Receiver: Mason, Clayton, Williams vs. Ward, Holmes, Sweed

Mason and Ward are basically a wash. Ward is a better pass-blocker, and I think Mason is probably a better pure receiver. Holmes and Clayton is an interesting match-up. Holmes was huge in the AFC Championship Game, and the Super Bowl. If he were to sustain that level, he is probably better than Clayton. Overall, I think they are pretty similar. Holmes is going into his 4th season, Clayton is going into his 5th. Holmes has a 16.6 yard per catch average for his career, Clayton averaged 17 yards per reception last year. Sweed was a 2nd round pick, and a rookie last year that did little. At 6’4, 220 lbs Sweed is the Steeler version of Williams. Whomever produces more as that 3rd WR, probably gives their team the overall edge.

Edge – Even

Tight-end: Heap, Smith, Drew vs Miller, Spaeth

If the Ravens are going to improve in 2009, I am convinced part of that improvement will have to come from their TE’s. A lot of people have written off Heap, my believe is that he was tied to the offensive-line in 2008 to help with the pass-blocking. Combine that with Flacco being unwilling (not-allowed?) to throw over the middle of the field for more than 1/2 of last year, and it is not surprising that Heap’s production suffered. Further to that, you had Dan Wilcox recently state to the press that the TE’s were asked to do things in Cam Cameron’s scheme that took away from their previous success. I believe after another off-season of evaluation, that adjustments will be made. Adding Oher at RT, will allow Heap to get off the line. The addition of LJ Smith opposite of him, will have teams having to make adjustments to a 2 TE set.

Heath Miller missed a couple of games for the first-time in his career last year. He never has produced monster-numbers, but I think he has some of the best hands of any TE in the league. When Roethlisberger is scrambling and looking to make something out of nothing, it always seems like Miller is there to make a play. I think the Ravens having Smith in reserve, give the Ravens a clear edge in overall depth.

Edge – Baltimore

Offensive Line: Gaither, Grubbs, Birk, Chester, Oher vs. Starks, Kemoeatu, Hartwig, Stapleton, Colon

The Steelers recently signed Starks, and Kemoeatu to 4 , and 5 year deals respectively. Steeler coaches think that Colon is as good a RT as there is in the league. Clearly Pittsburgh feels good about their line. Still, you have to wonder how good they are, considering they allowed 46 sacks in 2008.

For the Ravens, Gaither played 2008 with essientially 1 arm, and limited practice time; and was still a force everyweek. If he stays healthy, it could be a ProBowl season. Him combining with Grubbs on the left-side is basically unfair to the opposition. Birk is replacing Jason Brown at Center, and most people are calling that an upgrade. I think his experience will help, but I am a bit apprehensive about his age. Further to that, if Chester is starting at RG over Yanda, I do not know who the backup Center would be. With Terry going down to injury today, I was encouraged to hear that Yanda would get a look as the reserve Tackle. This likely means that Chester will retain his RG position. I think the offense greatly improved when he entered the line-up last year, as his athleticism on pulling plays made a difference. All eyes in camp right now are trained towards 1st round pick Michael Oher at RT. The transition to RT is going to be an adjustment for Oher. He will have to relearn his foot-work, and continue to improve his pass-blocking. Physically, he is clearly ready, and will be an upgrade over the Anderson/Terry combo from last-year.

Edge: Baltimore

Defensive Line: Ngata, Gregg, Pryce (Bannan, Edwards, McKinney) vs. Smith, Hampton, Keisel, Hood, Hoke, Eason

Like the TE position, if the 2009 Ravens are going to improve over last year, they have to be better across their D-line. The D-line played well last year, but the injuries to Gregg, and Edwards killed the depth. Their return makes the group extremely deep. This is the year that Ngata fully emerges on the National stage, as the best DT in the game. I wish I was as optimistic about Pryce. I am very concerned about how much he has left. I think the Ravens would be smart to limit his plays per game, and really concentrate on just receiving a pass-rush in obvious passing situations.

Between their depth, and their scheme, you know that Pittsburgh will have a productive D-line once again in 2009. This year, they add the fresh legs of 2009 1st round draft pick Ziggy Hood. Hampton, and Keisel are in the last-years of their contracts, which will have them extra hungry, as they play for their next pay-day.

I am very optimistic on the Ravens potential on the D-line, but Gregg, and Edwards have to prove their health when the lights come on, and Pryce has to show he can still produce.

Edge: Pittsburgh

Line Backers: Suggs, Gooden, Lewis, Johnson, (Kruger, McClain, Barnes) vs. Woodley, Harrison, Farrior, Timmons

Like most of Baltimore, I was a fan of the ‘Mad Backer’ Bart Scott. Unlike the National media, I do not believe we are going to see a drop in play from Scott to Gooden. Gooden’s fresh legs, will increase the athleticism of the LB’s, and again make the Ravens sideline-to-sideline pursuit top-notch. What you have to watch for, is how well Gooden stays at home in his position, or does he get caught with over-pursuit? I saw Ray Lewis at camp yesterday, and was amazed at how much weight he has lost. You read about 20-25 lbs, but it just sounds like a number until you see the physical difference. Last year, Lewis talked about the need of carrying the extra weight, to help make tackles, and deal with the offensive-line. I imagine he has decided that he needs to have a bit more speed in 2009, and feels strong about the defensive-line depth. That d-line depth should have the LB’s free to make plays. I get the feeling that the stars are aligning for Suggs to put together a complete season of excellent pass-rush. He has greatly improved as an OLB during the past couple of seasons, especially being able to drop back into coverage. I think this is the year he consistently brings down QB’s. On many teams, Johnson would be looked at as one of their premier defensive players; on the Ravens, he is often an afterthought. For Suggs to have the year I believe he is capable of, there has to be pressure coming from the other-side. Barnes has all the physical tools, but he has to produce in Year 3. If Barnes is not productive, I would expect Kruger to get the opportunity. Kruger will be spending most of this year learning to operate as that hybrid OLB/DE.

Even forgetting the Steel Curtain of the ’70’s, the Steelers have maintained a top-flight defense for the past 15+ years based on the strength of their LB’s. Timmons, and Woodley were 1st, and 2nd round picks in 2007, that have greatly added to their 3-4 defense. Farrior is not Ray, but he is a 2-time Pro Bowler, including in 2008. Harrison has a history of strange quotes, but he is also the defending NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

I will not pretend to be versed in the LB depth of the Steelers, but I am quite confident that they have a number of players in their depth that they are comfortable with. You have to credit them for continually finding players that match their scheme.

Edge: Even

Secondary: Foxworth, Washington, Reed, Landry, Rolle, Webb, Zybikowski, Nakamura, Carr, Walker vs. Taylor, Townsend, Polamalu, Clark, Lewis, Burnett, Gay, Mundy

The Ravens head into 2009, having to feel exceptionally good about their Secondary depth, even with the loss of Leonhard. With Foxworth signed, and the return of Washington; Baltimore has excellent speed, and coverage abilities with their starting corners. Both are slight though, and will have limitiations in what they can provide towards stopping the run. With Rolle, Webb, and Walker available as reserve DB’s, the Ravens will be able to match-up against teams that want to spread the field. All reports on Landry are that is ready to go, but you really will not know until they play some games. Assuming he is all the way back to health, you have a physical player that needs to be a bit better in coverage. Teams are not going to intentionally challenge Reed, so the other Safety has to make plays. Leonhard changed a number of games last-year by constantly being around the ball. Zybikowski and Nakamura earned a lot of positive comments from Raven coaches last-year, and are entering their 2nd year in the league. If Landry has any issues, I think the coaches will be comfortable going to either one of them. Watching Reed on a week to week basis, is a real treat. He is just an amazing play-maker, that does not get enough credit for being a true student of the game.

If anyone is in the conversation with Reed as the best Safety in football, it is Polamalu. I think Reed is the better play-maker, but with Reed’s nerve damage, Polamalu is currently the more physical player. One thing you have to remember about The Steelers secondary, is that they are usually helped by a tremendous pass-rush. Taylor, does not have great cover-skills, but is a bigger corner that usually gets the toughest match-up. Clark was an undrafted FA, that has been in the league since 2002. Like Landry, he has to make plays opposite of a great Safety. Townsend has been the league for 10 years, and age is catching-up with him. Pittsburgh grabbed two DB’s in the first 5 rounds of the NFL draft for increased depth.

Edge: Baltimore

Special Teams: Hauschka/Gano, Koch, Carr, Figures vs. Reed, Sepulveda, Moore

As long as the Ravens go with either Hauschka or Gano, they will be handing the FG duties over to someone that has never done the job on a regular basis in the NFL. Obviously Gano is a true rookie, and Hauschka had time with the team last-year, but was never the number 1 option. Both have stong-legs, and might be able to hit from further distances vs Stover, but we will see how accurate they are with the game on the line. Of the two, I would go with Gano. Hauschka spent 3 years at a D3 school, before ending up at NCST. Gano had all of his college career at Florida State. Being in that evironment seems like better preparation for the pressures of the job to me. I also like that Gano was a good punter in College, and could back-up Koch. I am not convinced either one is going to be the kicker. If they struggle in camp, the team could still turn to Stover, or another FA kicker with experience. If you are going to give a current edge, you have to give it to Pittsburgh for having an experienced kicker in Reed. The best part about not carrying Stover, would be that the Ravens would not need to carry a kickoff specialist. Koch had an oustanding 2008, but is probably a wash with Sepulveda, if Sepulveda is fully-recovered from his ACL injury. Figures has world-class speed, but does not look comfortable in-traffic. Carr should be a big boost to the Ravens return-game. I am unaware of any upgrades the Steelers have made to their return game, but last year it was Moore. Solid enough, but would hurt to lose your 3rd-string RB to a return injury.

Edge: Even

Head Coach: Harbaugh vs. Tomlin

Harbaugh completed his first-year in the league, leading the Ravens to an 11-5 Regular-Season record, and 2 post-season wins. Tomlin capped off his second-year in the league with his second AFC North Title, and the Lombardi Trophy. Both are younger guys (Harbaugh 46, Tomlin 37), that have mirrored styles. They want to play physically, and mentally tough football. Both retained coaches from the prior coaching-staffs upon taking the job. With the success they have already had, both are secure in their positions for the forseeable future. I am interested to see how both Coaches respond, when they go through some adversity. When things do not go right, do they change their approach with the press? Do they lose parts of the locker-room? Having established theirselves, will we see additional aspects of their personalities emerge? I think this is basically even, but they matched-up 3 times last year, and Tomlin won all 3.

Edge: Pittsburgh

These were two very evenly matched teams in 2008, and they will be again in 2009. Even though I have been predicting a 10-6 season for the Ravens, I like how they directly compare with the Champs. Ultimately, if you want to be the best, you will have to take the title from them. I do think Baltimore has closed the gap, but until you prove it on the field, Pittsburgh is still the team you have to go through in the AFC North.