The day Orioles fans dreaded finally came yesterday. Monday, the Baltimore Orioles traded Trey Mancini to the Houston Astros for two A-ball pitchers, Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott.
After getting assigned this piece, I spent a good amount of time on Twitter to see what the general reaction was. As it turned out, that was wasted time because the reaction was predictable. It doesn’t matter what the Orioles do, they’ll get killed for it just the same. Some of it was Orioles fans yelling about trading Mancini, some of it was analysts yelling that the Orioles gave up on a promising season. Most of it was just yelling.
The first gripe makes sense, but the second less so. Before Monday’s games, FanGraphs gave the Orioles a 2.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. After yesterday’s win, that climbed to about five percent. That’s not nothing, but it’s a lot closer to nothing than to something. But ask yourself this: how much of your money would you bet on a game in which you had a five percent shot at winning? If you’re honest, not much. Probably nothing.
The Mancini trade is Mike Elias agreeing with you.
It would sure be nice if the Orioles kept Mancini. It would’ve been nice if they had traded for Frankie Montas and Juan Soto or JD Martinez or whatever as well, but whether you agree with it or not, that’s not the Orioles philosophy right now. You know that. We’ve been living it since Elias took over. One year, maybe next year, maybe the year after, the Orioles might make some go-for-it moves, but this year isn’t it. Elias is smart enough not to be fooled by a few decent months.
Trading the face of the franchise, a man who survived cancer and returned to the team, hurts. It means something to fans to watch a player succeed in that kind of environment. It means something to watch a homegrown player grow into a team leader. That’s the kind of thing that, to be crass about it, sells t-shirts. And then there’s the less crass value. There’s the nebulous value a player like Mancini brings to a clubhouse. Just because value is hard to pin down numerically doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, it just means we’re not good enough to put a numerical value on it. Mancini, by all accounts, was one of those guys you wanted in your clubhouse.
It hurts for the fanbase too. Having someone to root for on the team gives fandom meaning. It’s provides a connection to the team, a doorway to caring about the club, and learning about the other players and learning to root for them as well. That’s important. There’s also the fact that Mancini was a good ambassador to baseball and to the Orioles. He was the guy on the ticket (if they used actual tickets anymore), on the program, the guy your O’s fan kids wanted most to pull from a pack of baseball cards.
So none of what I’m about to say is meant to discount any of that. It’s perfectly acceptable to be upset about this trade, to wish it hadn’t happened, to disagree with it, or to understand it and just wish it hadn’t happened.
This was absolutely the right thing for the Orioles to do. Given his age and abilities as a player, there was no reason for the Orioles to spend money on keeping Mancini around next season or beyond. That means he wasn’t likely to stay with the club beyond this season. Once you’ve accepted that as a fact, the next step is obvious. You have to trade him. You have to get something for him now while he can return value to the club. Not doing that is GM malpractice.
So yes, it sucks. From a fan’s standpoint this hurts. But it really had to be done.
Well, actually there was one scenario in which it did not have to be done. That scenario was if other teams didn’t value Mancini. If nobody was willing to give up much of value for him, then there was no reason for the Orioles front office to take the hit by dealing him. I was skeptical Elias would be able to get a lot for his defensively limited corner outfielder/first baseman who is hitting about 15 percent above league average this season.
Elias, though, did get something. He got two somethings and both seem quite promising. If there is a complaint about the Orioles minor league system, it’s pitching depth. That’s not to say they don’t have any, just that even the best minor league systems in baseball can’t have enough. So it’s notable that the Orioles got two promising starting pitchers to bolster that depth.
The big get is Seth Johnson, Tampa’s second best pitching prospect according to FanGraphs. Johnson is a relatively recent convert to pitching, but he’s been making great progress. He’s got a good, heavy fastball, an above average slider, and a changeup that’s a work in progress. He was absolutely dominating in High-A as a 23-year-old but blew out his arm and will require Tommy John surgery. That’s one of two rubs with Johnson. The other is he’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, which means the Orioles are going to have to use a 40 man roster spot to protect him, which they’ll do considering they just traded Trey Mancini for him. That’s going to eat up a 40 man spot while Johnson spends the next nine-to-12 months recovering from surgery. Not great, but necessary.
The second pitcher is Chayce McDermott. He comes over from the Houston organization (it was a three team trade). He’s also a fastball/slider guy who needs to improve his changeup. He gets a lot of swings and misses and racks up the strikeouts, but his bugaboo is walks and just generally pitching command. That’s can be a tough nut to crack, but it’s a rewarding nut if you can crack it. Clearly Elias & Co. have seen something or just believe that they can figure this guy out. If they can do it, they get a big, powerful lefty pitcher on their major league roster.
For more info on these guys and where they fit into the Orioles farm system, I recommend following BSL’s prospect guys at On The Verge. They’ll certainly discuss Johnson and McDermott in more detail.
Right now this isn’t a happy time. Yes, both pitchers have promising careers ahead of them, and that they’re both in the Orioles system is a win for the organization. But losing Mancini hurts. It hurts in the clubhouse, it hurts in the stands, and on the other end of radios and TVs across Birdland. And that won’t go away easily. Clearly though, as we know by now, for Elias and the rest of the Orioles front office, that’s just the cost of doing business.
Orioles Analyst
Matthew Kory is a Orioles / MLB Analyst for BSL. He has covered baseball professionally for The Athletic, Vice Sports, Sports On Earth, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. He lives in Portland, Oregon with his wife, two boys, and his cats, Mini Squeaks and The President. Co-Host of The Warehouse.