After 8 months of some terrific soccer, the Champions League Final is almost here. Originally slated for St. Petersburg, Russia, it was moved to Paris, France after Russia invaded the Ukraine. The final is being held this Saturday and will be shown in the US on ABC. The pregame will start at 2 EDT with kickoff slated for 3 EDT. And soccer fans are in for a treat. Universally accepted as the best soccer on the planet this final features two of the top clubs in the world.
Liverpool (EPL) and Real Madrid (La Liga) are no strangers to each other having met 8 times previously. Real has been the better side in those matches but by the slimmest of margins having won 4, tied 1, and lost 3 while outscoring Liverpool 10-8 in the aggregate. While Real may have a slight edge in their history the oddsmakers are giving a slight edge in this one to Liverpool. So lets look at the two clubs and who they might fare come Saturday.
Liverpool FC
Liverpool is coming in hot on the playing field and with some extra motivation to win this. The finished the EPL season going 28-8-2 and didn’t win the title finishing a mere point behind EPL Champions Manchester City. Plus the Reds lost the UCL Final to Real back in 2018 so will be looking for some payback.
Why Liverpool wins:
They have been playing terrific soccer down the stretch in the EPL having won 4 matches with one draw in their last 5 including winning the FA Cup. During this run they have outscored their opponents 8-4 and have not given up multiple goals since April 10th (2-2 draw with Man C). During the FA Cup final they played Chelsea to a 0-0 draw over 120 minutes and had to best the Blues in kicks from the spot. So they have been in a pressure cooker of late and that always helps prepare a team for a big match like this one.
Here’s how its expected that Liverpool will lineup on Saturday in a standard 4-3-3.
The will be no surprise how they will play Saturday. The will come out and press, press, and press. Since manager, Jurgen Klopp, took over he has instilled his gerhenpressing tactic and the Reds have taken to it like a duck to water. There are two keys that are paramount to his super press. Players with high work rates and a deep bench. Liverpool has both. When you have names like Thiago Alcantara, Roberto Firmino, and Diogo Jota on the bench you know you are facing a deep side. There are several keys to the match that want you to put your money on Liverpool.
- Luis Diaz has been a demon down the left flank for Liverpool of late. In the FA Cup final he gave Chelsea fits and caused a lot of problems for the back line. The only downside was his “aimer” was a bit off in the match. He easily could have scored a brace in the first half alone. If he finds his finishing touch its bad news for Real.
- There were lots of rumors floating around that Mo Salah wanted to leave at the end of this season even though he was under contract through next year. He recently announced he has no plans to leave. He said his focus was to “win another UCL trophy.” A motivated Salah is tough to deal with defensively.
- Their toughness down the stretch of the EPL and the FA Cup final.
Real Madrid CF
Real has some extra motivation in this final. Manager, Carlo Ancelotti, will become the first to manage in 5 European Cup Finals and has a shot at becoming the first two win 4 titles. Karim Benzema, Luka Modric, Dani Carvajal, Isco, and Marcello all have a chance to earn their 5th titles tying Cristiano Ronaldo’s record. Benzema needs a goal to tie for 3rd in all time UCL goals and needs 2 goals to equal Ronaldo’s single season record of 17.
Why Real Madrid wins:
Real comes in on not quite as strong a run as Liverpool. But, and its a big but. The had clinched the La Liga title several weeks ago so had an opportunity to rest some players and give some younger players some extra minutes. What remains to be seen is if that rest was beneficial or if they come out a bit disjointed? Still having gone 2-2-1 while outscoring their opponents 10-3 is hardly worrisome. Ancelotti has said that his side will also come out in a 4-3-3 but its fluid and can look more like a 4-4-2 at times.
This match is going to be about execution. Liverpool will press and Real knows that. Real will absorb pressure and look to counter quickly to try and get behind the Liverpool outside backs then find Benzema in the middle. And Liverpool knows that’s what Real will try to do. No secrets. No new formations or tactics. Its two world class sides facing each other to see who can impose their will on the other. Here are the keys to Real Madrid winning:
- Goalkeeper Thibaut Cortois must be sharp and be totally in synch with his back line. Those 5 players will have to play very quickly against the Liverpool press and recognize when they don’t have a clear passing option to just play a 50-50 ball downfield. Much better to give up possession far down the field than to try and maintain it deep in your own end and give up a bad turnover.
- The Real midfield trio of Kroos, Modric, and Caseniro will need to form tight triangles for each other to allow them to move the ball forward quickly. Modric, especially will need to recognize when the over the top ball down the wings is open. That will be the way they get behind the Liverpool defense and setup for Benzema’s runs into the box.
- Benzemas runs into the box. The question is not if he can finish. He has been flat deadly lately. If he gets any kind of openings inside the 18 its bad news for Liverpool.
So there you have a quick look at what should be a terrific soccer match. Ok its a cliche but this is must watch soccer if you are a fan at all.
Out on the limb projection:
I so want to say Real as they just seem to keep pulling rabbits out of the hat but Liverpool is just playing so well right now.
Liverpool 2 – Real Madrid 1
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.