The draw for the best soccer around has been completed and Group Stage play for the UCL 2022-2023 seasons starts with Match Day 1 being held September 6th and 7th. Then play continues for 2 months with the final Group State matches being on November 1st and 2nd. Besides being the best soccer you can see there is a huge extra reason to watch this fall and that is the upcoming World Cup in Qatar in November. Ok we all know that but what does one have to do with the other. Well in most years not much if any at all. But this yea with the WC being held in the middle of the European domestic leagues the UCL is going to play a large role and here’s why.

  1. Regardless of what domestic league a player is playing in the competition level of UCL is a step higher. Playing 6 super tough matches is going to be tremendous preparation for those players who are headed to Qatar. This is especially important for players on clubs with really deep rosters. Using Chelsea as an example. Christian Pulisic is considered the “best” if not at least one of the best players on the USMNT. For whatever reason the Chelsea manager, Thomas Tuchel, doesn’t see him as a starter. In Chelsea’s 4 EPL matches thus far Pulisic has not started once and has only gotten 72 total minutes off the bench. That is not the kind of minutes you want to see a key player heading to the WC. Now when UCL starts, even with the deep roster they have, one would expect to see Pulisic getting more minutes. The daily grind of EPL combined with UCL plus the two Cup competitions in England means that more players are going to get more minutes.
  2. And the second reason may be even more important. Since this WC is being held in the middle of the European seasons there is no long training camps with a number of friendlies plus a couple of friendlies right prior to the WC. In this case there is ONE training window left and that is at the end of next month with most teams playing two friendlies. The UCL matches will provide an excellent opportunity for players fighting for a roster spot to show what they can do. Critically important for those fringe players who play on clubs in the smaller European leagues. Again as an example we’ll use two USMNT candidates in Talik Tillman and James Sands. Both of these young players have been in previous USMNT camps and played in friendlies. The question surrounding them has been do they have enough experience and have they played against tough enough competition to show they are ready for the level of play at the WC. In these 2 guys cases very valid questions. They both play for Rangers FC in the Scottish Premiership. While the Ranges are a highly regarded club the Scottish league is ok but certainly not the level of the big leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and League 1). With the Rangers making this years UCL will give these guys multiple matches to show what they can handle against some top flight competition. Improves their chances of not only making the final USMNT WC roster but also being better prepared technically.

This season marks the second year since UEFA abolished the goals away rule of determining winners. How big an impact was that last year? Well not much and that is a good thing. As has been the trend the last number of years more goals were scored during the second legs of ties than in the first legs. Not unexpected as in most cases these teams are not very familiar with each other (especially in the Group Stage) so they tend to play a bit more cautious the first time out. However, the annual review of the Competition Technical committee is that the play, in general, during the first legs tended to be more open than in the past since the home team was not as worried about given up the dreaded away goal. Too early to tell long term the affect this change will have but I think its a good one and here to stay.

With that backdrop lets look at the 8 groups and what fans can expect to see over the next several months.

Group A

Ajax -First the Dutch club lost their manager, Erik ten Hag to Manchester United, then they lost six key players during the summer transfer window. The have signed seven new players including Nigerian CB Calvin Bassey. Somehow Ajax always manages to show up with some young new players nobody has heard of and finds a way to make it work. Not sure that’s in the cards this season.

Glasgow Rangers – The Rangers are back in UCL for the first time in 12 years and they had to get in through the playoff system. They built a lot of confidence during those matches and may be the toughest team from Pot 4. While not at the level of the big clubs they will present some problems especially if teams look past them. Of note they have two USMNT team players to keep and eye on. CB James Sands and Forward Malik Tillman. Both of these guys are fighting for Qatar roster spots so will be giving it all they have.

Liverpool – Clearly the class team in the Group. But this is also not the same Liverpool of the past several years having yet to win a match in the early part of the EPL. The loss of Sadio Mane has taken them a step back and it may take a few weeks for them to find their stride. Pay close attention to their first match. Away at Napoli will be a tough test. Now that said, Liverpool did come out of their shell in their last EPL match tying a league record with a 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth.

Napoli – Off to a terrific start in Serie A, they are back in UCL after a 3 year hiatus. Scoring 9 and only allowing 2 goals in their first 3 matches is a really good showing and confidence builder. As noted for Liverpool, pay close attention to their home match next week. Critical if they want a good start.

Prediction – Liverpool wins the group with Napoli taking second. But Rangers will surprise some people. This is shaping up to be one of the most competitive groups.

Group B

Atletico Madrid – Atletico has finished 2nd in their group the last 4 seasons and should advance once again. In fact this may be the year they actually win their group. And this appears to be a typical Atletico team. Don’t put a bunch of balls into the net but keep most of their opponents shots out of theirs too.

Bayer Leverkusen – What to make of this club? They started the Bundesliga with 3 straight losses before finally garnering a 3-0 win over Mainz. They will be helped with the signing of Chelsea winger Callum Hudson-Odoi.

Club Brugge – First the good news. This marks Blue-Blacks are making their 5th straight appearance in the group stage having placed 3rd for three of those. Now the bad news. Last year they finished in last and I think they are destined to do so again this year.

Porto – The Portugal league champions tend to fly a bit under the radar, as do most teams in that league. Not at the same overall levels of the big 5 European leagues. But still winning the league means they do have talent and will be in the mix for this group.

Prediction – Interesting group in that 3 teams could actually win the group. Only Brugge seems destined to finish last. This one is really a toss up but I’ll go with Atletico and Leverkusen advancing. Hint – don’t bet on this.

Group CThe Group of Death

Barcelona – Oh my what a mess this club is in. Still a ton of talent but their manager, Xavi, can’t seem to keep his mouth shut. Throwing players under the bus seems to be a bad strategy to motivate a team. As an example, he has declared that RB and USMNT start Sergino Dest doesn’t fit into his plans and he doesn’t expect to play him all season and is open for transfer offers. Well of course now the subsequent transfer offers seem to be low balls and Xavi says no. Well what did he expect to get for a player you have publicly said isn’t in your plans? Idiot! But they still have a lot of talent at Camp Nou. Not the least if world class goal scorer Robert Lewandowski.

Bayern Munich – Well the bad news is they lost Lewandowski to Barcelona. The good news is they got Mane from Liverpool. While not quite a wash, Bayern is still an offensive machine. Don’t believe me? Check out the Bundesliga table. Bayern sits atop once again and scored 16 times in their first 4 matches.

Inter Milan – The Serie A champions just got better this summer bringing in a big target striker in Romelu Lukaku. And they are currently tied atop this years table.

Viktoria PIzen – Oh to be these poor guys from the Czech Republic. While a respectable side they are the team most expected to earn a big fat 0 points in the group stage. Such is the luck of the draw and in this case it sucks to be a PIzen fan.

Prediction – Too funny but for the second year in a row Barca isn’t going to advance. Bayern and Milan take 1 and 2.

Group D – The Weakest Group

Eintracht Frankfurt – Their first time in the top European competition in 62 years by virtue of winning the Europa League. That’s the good news as they have faltered thus far in the Bundesliga sitting mid table after allowing 11 goals in their first 4 matches. They need to fix their defense quickly to have a shot at advancing out of the group.

Olympique Marseille – They haven’t reached a knockout match in the UCL since 2012. They have some talent and got a pretty lucky draw so perhaps they have a shot this time around?

Sporting CP – Sporting surprised many last season advancing out of the group stage by ousting a tough German side in Borussia Dortmund. Can they pull off another unexpected advancement this year? Perhaps since they got a good draw.

Tottenham – As I watched the draw for the group stage last week I could hear the cheers of Spurs fans 6,000 miles away. Yes you still have to play the games but they couldn’t have gotten a better draw. Manager Antonio Conte has the Spurs playing tactically sound soccer and their are in terrific fitness. Don’ bet against them advancing unless you just like to throw money away. Clearly the class of the group.

Prediction – Tottenham wins the group. Its a toss up between the other three who takes second in this weak (which also means competitive) group. I like the German club.

Group E

Chelsea – The biggest question for the Blues for the last few years is which team will show up. And that seems to be the tag line again this season. A couple of solid performances and a WTH was that 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Leeds. The best news for Chelsea fans is that they tend to rise to the occasion at least in UCL having advanced in 19 of 20 trips. Don’t look for this year to be an exception. Although not all is wonderful in Chelsea as a number of players , including USMNT winger Christian Pulisic, are unhappy with their lack of playing time or refusal for their ownership to transfer them. Manager, Thomas Tuchel seems to be getting even more agitated than usual and has already gotten a red card in the short EPL season.

Dinamo Zagreb – The Croatian side is a fixture in the UCL. They make the league more often than not. But also more often than not they go home after the group stage having not finished in the top 2 23 times since 1998. Ouch.

Milan – The other strong club in this group having won the Serie A for the first time in 12 years. The big money club from Italy should fare well in this group. They have not lost a match in the early Serie A season and are sitting second. Right where I expect them to finish in this group.

Salzburg – The strongest Austrian club the last several years reached the knockout stage last year and they are a good team again this year. The problem is they aren’t as deep as the two big money clubs sitting above them and they lost one of their driving engines, USMNT midfielder Brenden Aaronson who was sold to Leeds. As a side note if you haven’t watched Aaronson’s play with Leeds you need to.

Prediction – The two money clubs finish at the top in order of their club value. Chelsea then Milan. But Salzburg could make a bit of noise if one of them falters.

Group F

Celtic – The Hoops (what kind of a nickname is that for a soccer club?) are back in UCL after a 5 year layoff. They actually won the European title clear back in 1967. But Hoops fans won’t see much of that magic this year. They have only won 2 of their last 18 group stage matches and haven’t made the knockouts in 10 years. Expect that streak to continue.

RB Leipzig – Red Bull have only played so so in the current Bundesliga but they have been strong defensively allowing just a touch over a goal/match. If they find their scoring form they should be able to secure enough points against Celtic and Shakhtar to advance.

Real Madrid – Lets just get to the bottom line right up front. They are winning the group. They won the whole thing last year and return last seasons top goal scorer in Karim Benzema who seems to be getting better not older. They are too strong and too deep for the rest of the clubs in this group.

Shakhtar Donetsk – A really fun side to watch they are probably not going to make much noise this season. The Ukrainian side has lost most of the foreign players due to the Russian invasion and that has just weakened them too much.

Prediction – Real wins and Leipzig takes second.

Group G

Copenhagen – The Lions have only finished in the top 2 once back in 2010. Don’t expect that to change this time around. In fact going in I think their fans would be ecstatic with a 3rd place finish. They will struggle to score many points in this group.

Dortmund – One of the top German clubs is an enigma of sorts. Every once in awhile they have a match that just leaves fans shaking their heads. After starting the season with two solid wins their entered their 3rd match looking good. And then they looked outstanding for 89 minutes leading Werder Bremen 2-0 at home. Then in some unexplainable disaster they managed to lose 3-2. Then they redeemed themselves a bit with a 1-0 road win over the #2 team Union Berlin. Group stage allows for a stumble now and then. But only one. Dortmund needs to find a way to minimize their stumbles.

Manchester City – One writer put it best when he said “every year Man City is the UCL favorite and every year they don’t win.” Well they are the favorites again this year. Sure they lost Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling. That’s a lot of offensive power. Well no big deal just sign Erling Haaland in place. Some fans were concerned that it would take Haaland some time to acclimate to the tougher grind of the EPL. Wrong. In his first 4 matches he has scored 6 goals good for 1st in the EPL. He’s just one of if not the best goal scoreres in the world right now.

Sevilla – If the start of the La Liga is any indication, then Sevilla needs to pull their collective heads out and quickly. In their first 3 matches they earned but a single point and have not looked particularly good either. But they have a lot of talent and should be in the mix to advance.

Prediction – The Citizens advance and Dortmund and Sevilla are in a dogfight for second. Give the nod to the German side.

Group H

Benfica – They have had a terrific start to their season in Portugal having won all 3 of their matches by a combined 8-0. And those matches sandwiched their two playoff matches with Dynamo Kiev which they won on aggregate 5-0. You know what they say about defense and championships. Don’t see that happening in this case but they have certainly given their fans some reasons to be excited. The problem is the two big guns they have to go against.

Juventus – The story for the storied Italian club the last number of UCL seasons has been to advance only to get ousted in the first knockout round. So far in the early part of the Serie A Juve looks really good defensively having only allowed 1 goal. If that continues in UCL play they have a solid chance to advance. One player to key on is USMNT midfielder Weston McKennie. When he gets going it seems to spark the entire Juve side. But he is also prone to stretches where you aren’t even sure he is on the field. But they have bolstered their chances a bunch brining in Paul Pogba and Angel Di Maria.

Maccabi Haifa – The Israel top flight champions are back in UCL for the fist time since 2009. Don’t expect them to stick around. They are a decent side but they just don’t have the horses to run with the rest of the teams in this group. They are another side that may well not earn a single point in group play.

Paris Saint Germain – When you have an attacking trio of Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, and Lionel Messi its just very difficult for opposing managers to come up with a game plan to shut them down. Just too many ways to come at you. They have qualified for UCL 11 straight seasons and have advanced in each of those years. Don’t bet against them this time either.

Prediction – PSG and Juve battle it out for the two spots. Benfica goes home in 3rd albeit one of the better 3rd place teams and Haifa just goes home.

So there’s a quick look at what to expect and it all starts next week! As in the last several years CBS holds the US broadcast rights and most matches will be shown on their streaming service Paramount+.

Steve Birrer
Steve Birrer

Soccer Analyst

Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.

X