A month ago we discussed the upcoming matches for the UCL Round of 16 and what to expect. The focus was to see if there were any changes (players, managers, forms, or other circumstances) that would suggest that the original outcomes predicted back in December when the pairings were announced may change. Indeed some of the original projections from December were flopped.
But now we have even more information. The first leg matches have been completed and the locations for the second legs have been finalized. So its a perfect time to play politician and flip flop again. But first let me set the stage for the second leg reviews. Historically, the approach in soccer has been to take a draw on the road and win at home. Its pretty good logic, especially when you look at the loaded schedules UCL teams face. Between domestic leagues, domestic cups, and UCL a lot of matches get cramped into short windows. Then on top of that many of these same players get called into duty for their respective national teams. Playing these matches and getting the needed end results becomes a chess match and the club managers spend countless hours figuring out the best way to maximize the use of their rosters. Simply put no player can play 90 minutes in all these matches save perhaps the goalkeepers.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Then you still have to factor in the pandemic and the travel restrictions placed on certain countries. More on that in the matchup discussions.
And if all that’s not enough there are still the competition rules to factor in. Clearly just win and you don’t have to worry about things like tiebreakers. But the reality is that tiebreakers often do matter. After all we are talking about just two matches between the opponents. All it takes is for one minor slip up and the tiebreakers come into play. If you have been reading any of my stuff over the last several years you know by now that one of the key things I harp on is scoring on the road. The reason is simple. Away goals are the second tiebreaker (first being total goals scored). Here’s a simple look at how important away goals are:
Scenario 1 – Team A goes on the road and loses to Team B 1-0. Then in the second leg Team A at home wins 1-0. Goal differential is 0 for both. Away goals is 0 for both. So what that means is that the second leg must go to two 15 minute extra time periods. If there is no winner yet then they go to penalty kicks.
Scenario 1 – Team A goes on the road and loses to Team B 2-1. In the return leg Team A wins 1-0. Goal differential is 0 for both. But in this scenario Team A leads in away goals 1-0. Team A advances.
Enough of the preamble lets get into the matchups.
Juventus vs Porto
Porto actually won at home 2-1 which was a bit of a surprise. Porto scored in the 2nd minute and extended the lead in the 46th minute. At one point it could have easily been 3-0 but they failed to convert that chance. But a 2-0 win would have been huge. But they eventually conceded that all important away goal in the 82nd minute to close out a 2-1 win. Now clearly that was a big win. Now they need but a draw in Turin to advance. But Juve will be playing at home and advancing would mean that Cristiano Ronaldo can tie Iker Casillas UCL record of 177 appearances. Ronaldo will be very motivated. Both teams come in on the same run of form at 3-1-1. The thing to watch for will be the shape and tactic Porto takes. If they come out to bunker and deny Juve chances they only works if they run a clean sheet. I don’t see that happening. But if they play tight defense and manage to score a counter then its big trouble for Juventus.
December Prediction – Juventus
February Prediction – Juventus
Prediction Now – Juventus
Dortmund vs Sevilla
If away goals are important, then away wins are extra important. Dortmund went on the road and scored a huge 3-2 victory. This means that not only does Sevilla have to win they must do so by scoring numerous goals. The path to advancing looks like this. Any Dortmund win or draw and they advance. Sevilla wins 1-0 or 2-1 and Dortmund still advances! If Sevilla wins 3-2 then its extra time. So for Sevilla to advance directly they must win 2-0, 3-1, or win by 1 but score at least 4. Make sense?
Form wise Dortmund comes in going 3-1-1 and the one loss was to Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich last Saturday. A match they actually held a 2-0 lead in. Sevilla comes in on a 3-0-2 run. The way to advance for Sevilla is to keep Erling Haaland from scoring. Well he netted 2 in the first leg so I wouldn’t bet much on this. Dortmund has been playing much better of late especially compared to how they were playing right up until the first leg at Sevilla.
December Prediction – Dortmund
February Prediction – Flipped to Sevilla
Prediction Now – Flopped back to Dortmund
Liverpool vs RB Leipzig
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Liverpool has lost 5 of their last 6 EPL games including losing Saturday at home to Fulham, at team that may well get relegated. And once again they failed to score. Leipzig on the other hand have won 8 of their last 9 matches and sit solidly in second in the Bundesliga (a mere 2 points behind Bayern Munich). Liverpool has fallen clear down to 8th in the EPL (remember that the top 4 finishers qualify for next seasons UCL). One can point out the injuries Liverpool has been dealing with and that wouldn’t be wrong. But they have been outscored 12-4 in their last 7 matches. Not getting it done would be putting it mildly. The good news for Liverpool is that they did win the first leg on the “road” 2-0. That may be just too big a gap for Leipzig to overcome. Liverpool ended up getting a huge benefit in that their away game was played in Budapest yet they do get to host their home game.
December Prediction – Liverpool
February Prediction – Flipped to RB Leipzig (although caveated that having to travel for their ‘home’ game was a blow to their chances
Prediction Now – Flopping back to Liverpool. 2-0 “road” win is probably too big a lead.
Paris Saint Germian vs Barcelona
The original story line was Messi vs Neymar with the concern being the injury status of Neymar. And in the first leg that was half the storyline as Messi scored in the 27th minute. But then French superwonder Kylian Mbappe took over. Mbappe scored a hat trick leading PSG to a 4-1 drubbing at Barcelona. Barcelona comes in on a 4-0-1 run while PSG has gone 4-1-1. Both sides are playing well. The problem for Barca is that playing well won’t be enough. They have to do something that has only been accomplished four times in UCL history (to comeback from a 3 or more goal deficit). Barca held a 3-0 lead over Liverpool in the semi-finals 2 years ago. Liverpool came back to win at Anfield 4-0 to advance. Liverpool ended up winning it all that season. But during the 2016-2017 Round of 16 Barcelona was paired with PSG. In the first leg in Paris, PSG thumped Barca 4-0 and PSG fans thought advancing was in the bag. Not so fast said Barca fans. In the return leg Barca crushed PSG 6-1 to move on. So there is some history there. But they also did it at home not on the road.
December Prediction – Toss up with a slight not to Barcelona if Neymar didn’t play
February Prediction – Same but if PSG could earn a draw then they are favored
Prediction Now -Flip to PSG. Just can’t see another miracle comeback for Barcelona. Not with the way Mbappe is playing.
Manchester City vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Manchester City lost yesterday to cross town rivals Manchester United 2-0. Up till then then had been on a run of 21 straight wins.
Monchengladbach has not won a match since clear back on January 22.
Manchester City won the first leg in Budapest (“home’ match for Monchengladbach) 2-0.
Thats all you need to know
Prediction in December – Man City
Prediction in February – Man City
Prediction Now – Man City
Real Madrid vs Atalanta
Real won the first leg away 1-0. Getting a win and an away goal means that Atlanta is in a tough spot. However, they are only down a goal but they are going to need to hold Real to zero or maybe one goal in the second leg. Real has gone 3-2-0 in their last 5 while Atalanta has gone 4-0-1 so both teams are in good form. Injuries continue to plague Real with Sergio Ramos, Eden Hazard, and several others out. However, there is hope that Hazard at least will return for second leg next week. Atalanta is down a goal but they are one of the better scoring clubs in the Serie A. Still its difficult to overcome when the home side can play for a draw. In the end I just can’t see Atalanta keeping a clean sheet in Madrid.
Projection in December – Real Madrid
Projection in February – Real Madrid
Projection Now – Real Madrid
Chelsea vs Atletico
What a turnaround for the Blues. Bringing in Thomas Truchel as their manager has paid in spades. They are 7-3-0 in their last 10 matches and have clean sheets in 8! The interesting and sad part for fans of the USMNT is that Christian Pulisic has not started under Truchel. But its hard to argue with the club’s success with him on the bench. Atletico. Atletico has been on a bit of a slide of late having gone 2-1-2. Not terrible but not the form you look for heading into a UCL match. And they lost the first leg at “home’ 1-0. Another club that can rightly claim unfairness. Had to travel for their “home” leg buy Chelsea does get to stay home for the return leg. Mason Mount seems to have upped his play under Tuchel. In fact the entire side has. Going to be a tough match for Atletico.
Prediction in December – Chelsea
Prediction in February – Flipped to Atletico but hopeful Truchel could turn Chelsea around.
Prediction Now – Flopping back to Chelsea. Truchel has them running superbly.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio
Bayern leads the Bundesliga and has a goal differential of almost 1.5 goals/match.
Bayern is in form having gone 3-1-1 while Lazio is out of sorts having a 1-0-4 stretch.
Bayern won the first leg 4-1 and at playing at home.
Say good night Lazio.
Prediction in December – Bayern and it would be a huge upset if Lazio won.
Prediction in February – Ditto
Prediction Now – Ditto.
The matches return with half going tomorrow and Wednesday and the other half next week and will be streamed on CBS All Access.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.