Back in December we previewed the upcoming Round of 16 matches. The draw results and what to expect this round. Play resumes next week so its prudent to take another look and see if things have changed. Given that its been two months and lots has happened perhaps the predicted results might change? So what impacts are we potentially talking about?
- Players – transfers in or out or injuries. Its important to recognize the transfer rules in place. Up until a few years ago if a player had played in UCL that season and was subsequently transferred they were not eligible to play in UCL the rest of the season for their new team. That rule was done away with which has precluded some of the blockbuster winter transfers we used to see.
- Form – few teams play at their peak all season. There are stretches where they are world beaters and at times stretches were they may look more like a beater used car.
- Managers – changes in managers, player changes dictating tactical changes
One potentially key factor for these next two weeks is that several pandemic related restrictions have been put in place on teams from England. So unfortunately Borussia Moenchengladbach, RB Leipzig, and Atletico Madrid will all have to travel to neutral sites to play next week. Even though they may not have had fans at their home site they still wouldn’t have had to travel.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Barcelona – Paris Saint Germain
The toughest draw of this round. Two giant clubs typically sitting atop their respective domestic leagues. Interestingly enough, both currently sit in 3rd in their respective leagues. And both teams come in on a great stretch of form. In their last 6 matches both of these sides have gone 5-0-1. And neither team made any significant changes during the transfer window. Well thats not exactly right. PSG fired manger Thomas Tuchel right before Christmas and so far fans have to be pleased with the results under Mauricio Pochettino. Back in December the question was if Neymar would be back and in form in time for the Round of 16. Well its the good news bad news. He did make it back and was playing well until he got injured again (see lead in photo…ouch) in PSGs French Cup win and will miss the first leg at a minimum.
Prediction in December – Toss up with a slight nod to Barca if Neymar wasn’t back.
Prediction now – Same story line. If PSG can earn a draw at Camp Nou on Tuesday then they become favored.
RB Leipzig – Liverpool
How the mighty have fallen! Back in December Liverpool was atop the EPL and playing terrific soccer. Then the wheels fell off. They went through a several week stretch where they winless in 5 matches and were held scoreless 4 times. Then they seemed to come out of their funk and had back to back 3-1 wins. But now they have lost 3 straight by a combined 8-2. Simply put their defense is a mess. They brought in Ozan Kabak and Ben Davies on transfers to bolster their defense. They have yet to provide any bolstering. In today’s match against Leicester, Kabak was flat awful. To make matters worse, Liverpool goalkeeper Allison has had a really, really bad week. On the flip side, Leipzig is sitting solidly in 2nd in the Bundesliga and their defense continues to shine leading the league in goals allowed. Coming in on a run going 5-0-1 things are looking good. Perhaps USMNT defensive midfielder Tyler Adams has some more UCL magic like he did last season?
Prediction in December – Liverpool to advance although Leipzig’s defense could make it interesting.
Prediction now – Going to flip on this one and go with Leipzig. Too bad that the game has been moved to Budapest. Not playing at home in Germany is a bit of an advantage for Liverpool.
Porto – Juventus
Juventus sits in 3rd in the Serie A while Porto sits 2nd in the Portugal domestic league. Both teams are 2nd in their respective leagues in goal differential. Porto comes in having gone 2-3-0 while Juve has been on a 4-1-0 run. Last summer Juve brought in USMNT midfielder Weston McKennie to provide a more physical presence in the middle of the field. Many questioned if he would fit that need. Well that question has been answered in spades and he’s know a mainstay in their starting 11. Neither team made any transfer moves of note this last window. The key stat here is that Cristiano Ronaldo may be 36 years old but he’s still a scoring machine having tallied 16 goals in 18 matches.
Prediction in December – Juventus moves on.
Prediction now – No reason to change.
Borussia Dortmund – Sevilla
The bad news is that Dortmund has slid a bit further down the Bundesliga table sitting in 6th. They still are second in the league in scoring but they are middle of the pack in goals allowed. The big yellow machine has struggled recently and are on a 2-1-3 run of late and they needed a late goal today to get the draw with Hoffenheim. The biggest change from December for them may be the loss of Axel Witsel who tore his achilles tendon last month. The midfield pairing that of Witsel and Gio Reyna was key to their success and Reyna has struggled of late. Sevilla meanwhile has continued to show a very stingy defense only allowing 16 goals in their 21 La Liga matches to date and they come in on a 5-0-1 run.
Prediction in December – Dortmund would ride the scoring of Erling Haaland to advance.
Prediction now – Another flip. This looks to be advantage Sevilla.
Atletico – Chelsea
Another one of the matches that has to be moved, this one to Bucharest. This actually gives a bit of a boost to Chelsea since Atletico is so strong at home. This is also another really tough draw for both sides. But Atletico still sits atop the La Liga and have only lost once in 21 matches. In those 21 matches they have scored 44 times tied with Barcelona for the lead while allowing a paltry 13 goals. Three fewer than the next best club, Sevilla. They say defense wins championships. But Atletico is also looking to up the ante in the attack bringing in Moussa Dembele on loan from Lyon for the rest of the season. Chelsea was having all sorts of problems and fired manager Frank Lampard last month and brought in German, Thomas Tuchel. The guy fired by PSG. How have the Blues done under Tuchel? 4-1-0 and a chance to move up to 4th in the EPL on Monday. The biggest change is that he is working on moving USMNT winger/forward Christian Pulisic to a False 9 giving him more freedom to run the team out of the attacking midfield. The jury is out if they actually go that way.
Prediction in December – Chelsea “just because.”
Prediction now – Sevilla’s defense may be too stout for Chelsea to break down so flipping to Sevilla (still pulling for Chelsea).
Lazio – Bayern Munich
Lazio brought in CB Mateo Musacchio to provide some additional depth in the back line. Depth they need having allowed 27 goals in their 21 Serie A matches. They have been strong of late being on a 4-0-1 run. But they are going to have to play over their collective heads given their opponent. Bayern is pretty much beating everybody this season and leads the Bundesliga but 4 points with a game in hand. All while having a +32 goal differential in only 20 matches. Outscoring your opponents by an average of a goal and a half means you win…..a lot. All they have done in this calendar year is a measly 6-0-1 with their lone loss being to fellow Round of 16 club Monchengladach.
Prediction in December – “It would be a major upset for Lazio to knock off Bayern.”
Prediction now – Ditto
Atalanta – Real Madrid
Atalanta continues to be an odd team. Down in 7th in the Serie A but in the final for the Italian Cup. Unlike the league is known for they play more offense than defense 2nd in the league in goals scored. But a pedestrian 7th in goals allowed. Real Madrid have moved up to 2nd in La Liga with a good balance between offense and defense and have gone 3-0-2 in their last 5 matches compared to the 2-2-1 of Atalanta. Atalanta brought in RB Joakim Maehle from Genk (Belgian first division) which may provide some depth but he hasn’t played much since his transfer last month. The biggest news for Real is the loss of captain Sergio Ramos and Eden Hazard to injuries. Not good news for Real fans.
Prediction in December – A tough matchup but Karim Benzema and Luka Modric are enough for Real to move on.
Prediction now – Real should still prevail but they can’t afford any more injuries.
Borussia Monchengladbach – Manchester City
Monchengladbach has stayed right where they were in December. Sitting at 7th place in the Bundesliga. Still playing the same way. Scoring plenty but allowing more goals than you’d like to see. What that means is that probably won’t see them in UCL next season. Guess what else it means? You won’t see them in the quarter-finals this season. The one thing they had going for the was to have the first leg at home. Well that went away with the new restrictions so they have to travel anyway. Way back in December Man City was sitting down in 8th in the EPL and having trouble scoring goals. But as noted back then “with an attack of Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, and Gabriel Jesus its hard to imagine that they won’t find the back of the net enough to push through.” Fast forward to today. The Citizens have bolted to the top of the EPL and have a +29 goal differential. Ten better than the second best team. The Citizens have not lost since their 2-0 defeat to Tottenham back on November 21st. Since then, counting today, they are on a 20-3-0 stretch (all competitions).
Prediction in December – Manchester City has enough to push through.
Prediction now – Man City and not close.
Matches return starting next Tuesday so tune in. CBS All Access will have the coverage here in the States.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.