Well after several months of round robin play within the eight groups, the final 16 have been determined. As in most years, there are no real surprises on who made it and who didn’t. Always an upset match or two along the way but the big clubs from the top 5 leagues just have too much talent and depth. And with the Covid-19 pandemic, depth has never been more critical.
Back in October, the preview article provided a breakdown of each group and the favorites to advance. Here’s a quick recap of those projections.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Group A – Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid. Check.
Group B – Real Madrid and any of the other three. Ok a bit of a cop out here but Check.
Group C – Manchester City and Porto. Check.
Group D – Liverpool and Atalanta. Check.
Group E – Chelsea and Sevilla. Check.
Group F – Dortmund and any. Another bit of a cop out but Check.
Group G – Barcelona and Juventus. Well duh.
Group H – PSG and RB Leipzig. This was the one slight upset I predicted. The concern raised was that Manchester United’s defense may not be enough. Although Man U was favored by the oddsmakers, I didn’t see it. This is one of the cases where I hated to be right. Going into the final two matches, the Reds only needed to secure a single point to advance. But they dropped their last two matches 3-1 to PSG and 3-2 to Leipzig.
The draw for the Round of 16 was held on December 14 with the the following format. Winners of each Group were placed in Pot A and the runners=up were placed in Pot B. Balls representing each team were placed in bowls. The rules state that in this round no team can draw an opponent from the Group play nor from the same domestic league. A ball was then drawn from bowl of Pot B teams. They are then listed as the home team for match one. Balls are then removed from the bowl of Pot A teams per the above criteria. For example, the first team drawn from the runners-up pot was Borussia Monchengladbach. So the balls representing Real Madrid (in the same group) and Bayern Munich and Dortmund (German Bundesliga) were removed. Then a draw from the pot of eligible matches was made and in this case they drew Manchester City. The process was then repeated until all 8 ties were completed. Its worthy to note that the Group winners are set to have the return leg at their home venue. This is most always the preferable setup and especially so this year. With the second legs to be held in March, the odds are much improved that fans will actually be in attendance and they would be a huge boost for the home side. If you are interested in watching the actual draw here’s the link.
The header picture shows the results of the draw. The first leg of this round will be held on Tuesday/Wednesday February 16,17, 23, and 24. The return legs will be held on Tuesday/Wednesday March 9, 10, 16, and 17. With that preface out of the way lets take a look at the matchups and what we can expect.
Borussia Monchendgladbach vs Manchester City
Monchen currently sits 7th in the Bundesliga and has been scoring at a decent clip. However, they have also been allowing goals at a decent clip. City is sitting in 8th in the Premier League and has struggled to score goals this season. But their defense has been stingy. This matchup will be closer than one would have expected in previous seasons. Monchen is catching City at a bit of a downturn. But with an attack of Sergio Aguero, Raheem Sterling, and Gabriel Jesus its hard to imagine that they won’t find the back of the net enough to push through. The key for Monchen will be to see if their midfield can keep the ball away from City’s playmaker, Kevin DeBruyne. Additionally, Man C only allowed one goal in the Group Stage while scoring at a better clip than in the EPL.
SS Lazio vs Bayern Munich
Bayern has scored 10 more goals in the Bundesliga than anybody else. Bayern scored more goals in the Group Stage than anybody else. Bayern had the best goal differential in the Group Stage. Lazio advanced out of the group with a strong defense. And sitting down in 9th in the Serie A it appears that they are putting all their eggs in this years UCL campaign as its highly doubtful they qualify for next season. The problem for them is that they drew an offensive juggernaut. Just can’t see the Lazio defense keeping Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Mueller off the score sheet. And then they have to find a way past keeper Manuel Neuer. Just not going to happen. It would be a major upset for Lazio to knock of Bayern.
US Player to watch: Chris Richards could see some time in the back four for Bayern.
Atletico Madrid Vs Chelsea
One of the tougher matches in the draw. Nobody likes to play Atletico, especially on the road. They are talented and experienced. They sit atop the Spanish La Liga and have only allowed 4 goals in their first 11 league matches. In group play they only allowed 8 goals in their 6 matches but 5 of those came from Bayern. The problem Atletico has it they they have struggled to score in UCL this season, having only tallied 7 times in group play. They have, however, been much better in league play scoring almost 2 goals/match. On the other side of the pitch will be Chelsea. They are having a bit of the opposite type of season from Atletico. They have been only so so in the EPL sitting down in 8th. Some days they look like world beaters and other days not so much. But in UCL they have been terrific easily winning their group and only allowing 2 goals in their 6 matches. The question here is which Chelsea team shows up? The key is going to be the first match held in Atletico. Chelsea must keep it close. A loss is ok but if its by multiple goals they are in trouble. They will score at home in the return leg but how many will they need is the question. If Frank Lampard can get consistent play in the attack then his side will have a chance. And switching to Mendy in goal seems to have provided more stability in the back. Going to need some magic up top from Oliver Giroud and Timo Werner. Werner was brought in during the summer transfer window to be their go to goal scorer. But 4 goals in 13 matches is not quite the level they need. Flip a coin here. I am going with Chelsea just because.
US Player to Watch – Christian Pulisic. I actually think the is the key to them advancing. A healthy Pulisic just makes Chelsea so much better. But his health always seems to be in question.
RB Leipzig vs Liverpool
After calling for their slight upset advancement out of the Group Stage, I’d like to see them move on. But unfortunately they drew Liverpool. That team that won the EPL in easy fashion last season. That team that are leading the EPL again this season. And yes that same team that last won the UCL way back in 2019. The good news for Leipzig is that they can score goals and Liverpool are not at their best defensively right now. And Leipzig showed a ton of metal needing to win both of their last two matches to advance out of the group. The Red Bull are stout on defense and have only allowed 9 goals in their first 13 league matches, in the Bundesliga which is a high scoring league. But they will need all the defense they can get against Liverpool who by far and away are the top scoring team in the EPL. Red Bull simply has to compress the middle of the field and keep Mo Salah from getting his shots off. Because when he does he finds the net; he currently leads the EPL. Liverpool will score. The questions become will the Red Bull back line keeper keep it close enough. And can their the attack led by Poulsen and Olmo generate enough offense to overcome. As much as I’d like to see Leipzig advance, and they certainly have a chance, Liverpool will move through.
US Players to Watch – Tyler Adams in the Liepzig midfield. And it was only 4 months ago when Tyler scored this goal to push them to the semi-finals last UCL season.
FC Porto vs Juventus
Good news for Porto fans is that they open at home in Portugal. Porto sits 3rd in their domestic league while Juventus sits only 4th in the Serie A. But unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news if you are pulling for Porto. Now the bad news. Juventus is one of only two unbeaten teams in the Serie A. Juventus won their group and only allowed 4 goals of which 2 were to that nobody side called Barcelona. Juventus has found a punishing midfielder in Weston McKennie who has a goal or assist in their last three league matches. Oh, and its means Cristiano Ronaldo gets to play in Portugal. Sorry Porto. You are a nice solid club, but you go home after this round.
US Players to Watch: Weston McKennie
Barcelona vs Paris Saint Germian
Ouch. The draw of the this round. Although this is not your historical Barcelona team sitting clear down in 5th in La Liga. However, this is Barcelona and they did score 16 goals in the Group Stage tying for second most. The big news in this one is the injury to PSG forward Neymar. Too soon to know how long he will be out for, although initial reports are that it isn’t as bad as feared. Whatever that means. If he is able to return to fitness its probably the difference. Without Neymar its a slight nod toward Barcelona. In any case this is just a tough draw for both sides.
US Players to Watch: Sergino Dest has solidified his spot in the Barca starting XI at right back. Konrad de la Fuente is also on their first team roster but doubtful he sees much time.
Here’s a look at Dest’s goal back in November making him the first American to ever score a goal for Barcelone.
Sevilla vs Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund currently sits 4th in the Bundesliga but all is not well having recently suffered a 5-1 defeat by recently promoted Stuttgart 5-1. At home! Which promoted club ownership to remove Lucien Farve as their manager. Sevilla actually played well in the Group Stage doing what they do. Don’t score much but allow even less. That is the formula they will need against the talent loaded German side. In the end the combination play of Gio Reyna and Axel Witsel in the midfield and the scoring of Erling Haaland is what will make the difference and Dortmund advances.
US Players to Watch: Gio Reyna is to Dortmund like Pulisic is to Chelsea. They are just better with him on the field. You watch Gio’s play and its hard to remember that he is still only 18!
In their drubbing by Stuttgart, Gio scored the lone Dortmund goal and it made the Bundesliga top 5 for the week. Take a look.
Atalanta vs Real Madrid
This is a tough one to handicap. Real Madrid struggled in the Group Stage and it even looked like they may not advance. Winning two of their last three matches, all three being 2-0 scores. Atalanta is just weird. They got trounced at home by Liverpool 5-0, then turned around and beat them at Anfied 2-0. There is no logic to this but then it is 2020. In their respective leagues Atalanta sits in 8th while Real sits in 3rd. For Atalanta they will need some really fine finishing from their South American attackers, Columbian Luis Muriel and Argentinian Alejandro Gomez. But in the end Real has just enough better attack with Karim Benzema up top and Luka Modric in the midfield to move on.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.