Tonight starts a critical 5 days for the US MNT. With a home game tonight against Honduras and an away match on Tuesday at Panama, the team is in desperate need of some points. The team is currently tied for last place in the CONCACAF Hexagonal. As seen, we are looking up at everybody else.
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| Home Team | Away Team | Total | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club | G | W | D | L | W | D | L | W | D | L | Gf | Ga | +/- | Pts | |
| 1 | Costa Rica | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Mexico | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Panama | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Honduras | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Trinidad | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
| 6 | United States | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 |
The bad news is that not only have they not earned a single point in their first two matches, they also are a woeful -5 in goal differential, a key tiebreaker. Now to be sure, this is not a good place to be but the sky isn’t falling. At least not yet. The first two matches were two of the three toughest they play in this qualifying round. Sure losing to Mexico at home stung and the road loss to Costa Rica was unacceptable by any measure. But the remaining games are easier. So just what does the MNT need to accomplish in these next two matches? Of course, there are lost of scenarios that can play out but here’s how I look at it.
Certainly the optimal outcome would be six points but road wins are a premium so most would be very happy to garner four points which should start with a W tonight. Two points would be tough to swallow but would still keep them alive. A single draw or worse, two losses, while not mathematically eliminating them would pretty much be the death blow. Even given the current injury situation, I think three points is likely and four very doable.
What does the team need? In a nutshell they need to see the lead in photo play out. While he may not be in top form yet after returning from his heart issue, Clint Dempsey is still a feared striker in the region. Deuce steps up when the stage is big and tonight is big. Way big.
So lets look at the roster and see what the lineup might look like tonight.
Goalkeeper
Its going to be Tim Howard in the nets. Yes hes is just coming off an injury and has not played many matches in the last 6 months. But he still is the best keeper we have ever produced and still is a quality keeper.
Defense
With the injury to DeAndre Yedlin and the suspension to Timmy Chandler, the back line is quite uncertain. Arena’s original plan was to move Fabian Johnson to the position he normally plays in the German Bundesliga, left midfield. However, these injuries made that somewhat uncertain. Then it took a turn for the worse when Johnson suffered a hamstring injury in his last match and had to with draw. Still there are lots of options from which to chose.
Experience wise we have DeMarcus Beasely, John Brooks, Matt Besler, Geoff Cameron, and Omar Gonzalex with a combined 76 World Cup Qualifying (WCQ) matches between them. Along with Graham Zusi who has 15 WCQ matches but has only recently been moved to right back from his long time midfield position.
Then there is a crop of youngsters in MIcheal Orozco, Walker Zimmerman, Jorge Villafana, and Tim Ream. Each offers a different skill set but experience is not one of them as they combine for only 8 WCQ matches.
On one hand the situation calls for going with your experienced players. This is as close to a must win situation as it can get. The other side of the coin says that we are playing at home against a team we have historically dominated. Honduras is likely to bunker and look to counter attack. So energy and speed will be needed. And what a better time to get some real good experience for players likely to be needed at WC 2018. Based upon recent play I’d like to see a backline of Villafana, Brooks, Zimmerman, and Cameron.
Midfield
Currently an area of strength for the team. There are several young players really stepping up their play and they may see time in these next two matches. While I think his better days are clearly behind him, I still think we see Michael Bradley start at the defensive midfield slot. His experience and leadership are solely need tonight. The other lock to start is Christian Pulisic. He can play box to box and wide and inside. Look for him to combine with Jozy Altidore and Clint Dempsey tonight. The other two (or three) midfield starts are going to fall to Darlington Ngabe, Sacha Klejstan, Kellyn Acosta, Alejandro Bedoya, Sebastian Lletget, or Dax McCarty. I think I would go with Ngabe and Klejstan. Dont be suprised if Arena starts Bedoya. Tuesday against Panama will see Jermaine Jones back from suspension and depending on how things go tonight and his fitness he is likely to start that physically t
ough road match.
Oh how I wish we had Johnson at wide left and Pulisic wide right.
Forwards
The good news is that Deuce is back. And that has become even more important in that Bobby Wood was ruled out after suffering an injury in his last match. And now it appears that Jordan Morris is also out? That leaves the team with only three strikers in Dempsey, Altidore, and Chris Wondolowski. So the question becomes what to do tonight. Start Dempsey and Altidore leaving only Wondo to come off the bench? Or start Altidore as a lone target striker and use the depth and strength at midfield to build the attack. The advantage to this approach is that you get to start more of the players that are currently in great form (I’d put Acosta in this group) and it leaves you a great attacking substitute in Dempsey. It also enables Dempsey to come in agaisnt tired legs. The downside is that Altidore has not always had his best game as a lone forward. Tough decision here to be sure.
I have really tried to figure out the best starting XI for tonight given the situation and our injuries and think I would take the risk.Go young and fast. Risky to be sure but we are at home and I think its time to start to transition the team to the future. And these younger players have to get some experience some time. The counter argument is that the time to do that is this summer’s Gold Cup. And that isn’t wrong. I am concerned that it may be too late. So here is my lineup for Honduras.
Here’s what I expect Arena to go with.
And certainly Arena has the advantage of having seen the players work the last several months and in camp this week. However, historically one of the main criticisms of him was that he hung onto some of the mainstays too long. I hope that’s not the case tonight.
At the end of the match, though, we should win this win no matter the lineup or formation. The players are motivated. Its at home. And its all about #GetThree!!!!
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.