The USMNT is back in action with a solid chance to win its first trophy under manager, Mauricio Pochettino. And perhaps more importantly another training window for him to look at the first team as he builds the roster and tactics for World Cup 2026. There are very few windows left so each one is critical to set the stage for the WC. Getting to host the tournament at the same time as fielding what could be the strongest Nats team ever is a big deal.
The tournament actually started last September with most nations comprising CONCACAF playing a series of league matches to earn their way into the quarterfinals with the seeded teams (US, Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica). The quarterfinals were held back in November with the US matched up against Jamaica. While oh paper the US is substantially better than the Reggae Boyz, they have always given the US a difficult time. They always seem to have some incredible team speed and they did this last time around. But the good guys prevailed winning the away leg 1-0 and the home match 4-2 and the end result was really never in doubt. Canada drew the easiest opponent in Suriname and had no trouble with them ousting them 4-0 in aggregate. Panama and Costa Rica was probably the closest matchup and in the end the Panamanians won 3-2 in aggregate. In the last quarterfinal Mexico struggled mightily on the road at Honduras losing 2-0 but turned it around out home 4-0 to advance. The end result being the US and Panama play each other while Canada and Mexico face off and it all starts on March 20.
Frankly this draw couldn’t be better. The US faces a Panama team they should be able to handle, the key word being should. We all thought the same thing last summer at COPA America 2024 which didn’t turn out so well. But the US can right that ship and I doubt you see Tim Weah make such a stupid move to get a red card this time around. Secondly, its sets up a great final against Canada or Mexico. And certainly the advertisers and ticket sales people are happy with this!
So lets preview the two semi-finals.
US – Panama
The US is clearly the favorite as they should be especially playing in California. Panama will provide a test and they do have some quality players most notably Anibal Godoy (San Diego FC) and Jose Cordoba ( teammate of Josh Sargent at Norwich City). Lets look at the US potential lineup and what we might see. Poch has already said the team will play a 4-3-3/4-3-2-1 formation. So don’t expect any surprises in that regards. How ever, we may see some shift in tactics based upon who actually is on the field. As always the US has once again got hit with some injury issues. But those missing players open up spots for other players to make their case that they should be included in the WC roster. Also its key to note that the final will be played on Sunday. This is an extremely short turnaround time so some roster rotation is almost expected. The question will be do we see some rotation against Panama saving some legs for the final? Or will Poch go for the game sitting in front of him and then see whose still good to go for the final? Tough call. Certainly the final would be the tougher match but you have to get there first.
Goalkeepers
As per tournament rules, 3 keepers were called in and all of those guys have seen time with the team. Expect Matt Turner to continue as the #1 but he’s not playing and Zach Steffen is starting in Colorado and looked terrific in his last match. Don’t expect to see Patrick Schulte this time around.
Defenders
What is a really strong unit is just not close to its peak. Sergino Dest has been out for a year and has just returned to his club side and was not included on the US roster. Then at the last minute Antonee Robinson, perhaps the best LB in the Premier League, was pulled out. His club team, Fulham, decided he needed to sit this one out due to the extensive minutes he’s been playing. While I get their perspective I hate it. Fulham has overloaded him to keep them in competitions they are playing but that comes with a price and in this case its to the USMNT. Missing Dest or Robinson sucks. But to miss both of them is flat awful. So there are a bunch of ways we could see the team lineup. The most simple changes would be for Max Arfsten to replace Robinson at LB and Joe Scally to stay at RB. But this is also an opportunity to see Marlon Fossey on the outside. Or even to see Tim Weah or Weston McKennie at an outsdie back position. I don’t expect to see this but it would also open up a midfield spot to get Gio Reyna on the field without having to take another starter out.
Expect to see Chris Richards and Mark Mckenzie at CB. Could see Tim Ream back there as well especially if Poch doesn’t think McKenzie or Richards are good for 180 minutes in 3 days.
Midfield
The good news is that Tyler Adams is back at the dmid position. The bad news is that the guy behind him, Johnny Cardoso, was pulled out for an injury. Not sure Tyler is good for 180 minutes quite yet? Assuming that Adams is in the middle and McKennie isn’t at an outside back he’ll be in the midfield. So that leaves one spot between Gio Reyna, Yunas Musah, Tanner Tessman, or even Diego Luna. Since this will be the first match where Poch has had Adams out there it will be interesting to see how he manages the rest of the midfield. More options for sure.
Wingers
First the easy one. Captain America will start at one wing or the other. Christian Pulisic has been having perhaps the best year of his career at AC Milan. He will be on the field. Now there is some off chance that Poch may try and rest him for Sunday and only put him in for the second half if we need a goal. I don’t think he’ll go that direction but its a possibility. Now here’s where it gets interesting. Tim Weah could start and he is probably our most dangerous winger down the edge. Gio Reyna, has the most line breaking skill but he’s hardly playing to Dortmund. Not likely to start I’d think. Then Musah who Poch really likes on the wing. He’s been great box to box for the US but has struggled to really show much in the final attack. Much of what we see here will depend on how Poch wants to run the midfeld.
Striker
The US depth chart has 3 guys that are clearly ahead of everybody else. Folarin Balogun, RIcardo Pepi, and Josh Sargent. Well the bad news is that the first two are out with injuries meaning its the Josh Sargent show. Now the good news is that he’s having a terrific season at Norwich City in the English Championship and is in the best form of his career. So he’s going to start up top. If we need an extra attacker then expect the first guy in to be Patrick Agyemang.
Prediction – No excuses. A fourth consecutive trophy is on the line and we need to atone for last summers disaster in COPA. Good guys win 2-0.
Canada – Mexico
The Canadian National Team has really improved over the last handful of years. They have no weak spots on their roster and have several true stars in Johnathan David and Alfonso Davies. As these two go so does the team and manager Jesse Marsch has this team believing in themselves and playing well. Interesting thing about this match is that neither Canada or Mexico have ever won Nations League. The US has won all 3 of the previous versions. Marsh believes his team is ready to show its quality on a higher level and can win this thing.
Mexico. Hmm what to say. For years the top team in the region can hardly even say they are close to the top right now. Many of their great players from the last 20 years have aged out and their youth programs weren’t producing up and comers at the pace they were accustomed to. But they have several things going for them in this tournament. First, Manager Javier Aguirre has seemed to turn this team around. They still can be beat but they appear to have shaken off their unexplained lapses. They have been playing much better soccer and they are a deep roster. 10 of their 23 players are European bases with the rest from Liga MX. Oddsmakers have this as nearly a toss up with Mexico favored only slightly. In the end here’s what may be the deal breaker. This match is going to be a near sell out and it will be essentially a home game for Mexico. The fans will get on the referee early and often. If that impacts the refs willingness to blow the whistle then it will devolve into a rugby match and Mexico is more capable of winning under those scenarios. But if the ref doesn’t let that happen its going to be a well played and tight soccer match.
Prediction – Mexico in essentially a home game wins 2-1.
The US just needs to win and get to the final because it will be an epic matchup whether its the Tri Color or the Reds/Canucks depending on which nickname you prefer.
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.