The CONCACAF Nations League Quarterfinals are here and they are so important for fans of soccer in this region. Especially for fans of the US, Canada, and Mexico. While Nations League is always important as the premier tournament for the region there is extra value this time around. First off, since the three aforementioned countries are hosting the 2026 World Cup they are automatically qualified. While that is certainly a good thing its not without its negative side. With no qualifying matches, competitive matches for these countries will be few and far between in the run up to the WC. Any more most every FIFA window is pretty full with WC qualifying, UEFA and CONMEBOL Cup qualifying and tournaments, and established friendly commitments. So this means we need to get the most out of every competitive match.
But this time around there is even extra benefit to CNL! The winners of the 4 home-and-home quarterfinals will earn auto invites to COPA America 2024. There will be 2 additional invites that can be earned through follow on matches but just winning now ensures a berth. And its extra special for the USMNT as COPA America 2024 will be held in the US. Nothing like a major tournament on home soil as a dry run for WC 2026!
Lets take a quick look at the three ties then a more in depth look at the USMNT.
Mexico vs Honduras
While the current edition of El Tri may not be as strong as in years past they are still ranked #1 in the region by CONCACAF (although FIFA has the ranked 12th one spot behind the US). The last several months have been a mixed bag for them. Back in July they won the Gold Cup with a somewhat lackluster 1-0 win over Panama but still they took home the trophy. Then in the September FIFA window they had two friendlies that both ended in draws (2-2 with Australia and 3-3 with Uzbekistan). Not their best look. But then last month they had a strong window tying Germany 2-2 and beating Ghana 2-0. So certainly an upward look last time around. The Honduras side (FIFA #78) is always a tough out on their home turf. Estadio Chelato Ucles is a tough place to play for visitors. Given that the first leg is held in Honduras expect them to go all out for the W. They realistically need to win heading to the second leg in Azteca Stadium where a draw would be a superb result for them. The problem for Honduras is they just haven’t been that good of late. In the last window they went to Cuba and had a woeful 0-0 draw. They did make up for that in the return leg winning at home 4-0.
Prediction – Mexico advances
Costa Rica vs Panama
Probably the most interesting matchup of these quarterfinals. These two sides are well known to each other both from international play and domestic league competitions where their players see each other often. They are closely ranked as well with Panama coming in ranked 44th and Costa Rica at 46th. With the first match in Costa Rica I think the advantage actually goes to Panama. They are the better defensive side and will likely play a low defensive block looking to counter with their wings if and when the opportunities present themselves. They will be happy with a scoreless draw heading home. But the real factor favoring Panama is the current form of these two. Panama has not lost since the Gold Cup final. In the last window they handily beat Guatemala 3-0 but had a bit of a oops match barely beating lowly Curacao 2-1. CR will surely be looking at the film from that one to see what weaknesses they may be able to exploit. Costa Rica on the other hand did not play any matches in the last window so they have not been together since September where they beat Saudi Arabia 3-1 but then had a major disappointment losing at home 4-1 to the UAE.
Prediction – Really a close call but look for Panama for move on.
Jamaica vs Canada
The boys to our north currently ranked 45th taking on the ReggaeBoyz at 55th. Normally history would suggest that Canada would move on as they have a strong record against Jamaica. However, soccer doesn’t always work that way especially this time around. Both teams have been in decent form but Canada has only played one competitive match since last summer’s Gold Cup, a 4-1 loss to Japan. The result of that isn’t the issue but the fact that they haven’t played together of late is not a good thing. Jamaica on the other hand has played 4 matches since the Gold Cup and have gone 3-1-0. Now granted those matches were against Haiti (twice), Grenada, and Honduras certainly no really tough teams, But as they say you can only beat the teams on your schedule. While Canada are the favorites to advance this one could be an upset special. To have a legit shot Jamaica likely needs to get a multiple goal win at home while Canada’s team is trying to get in form then hope to hold on up in Canada. This one is going to be fun to watch,
Prediction – Canada to advance but if you like to pick underdogs this is the one I’d go with.
US vs Trinidad and Tobago
Lets just get right to the elephant. Every fan of the US remembers the dreadful match at T&T on October 10, 2017 down on that crap field in Couva when the US was stunned 2-1 and was left out of WC 2018. Heading into that match the US was something around 95% to make the WC. A whole host of bad results had to happen for the US to miss out. Well every single one of those bad results happened. One of the worst nights for US soccer fans in history. And here we are 6 years later and while the stakes are not near as high there is still a really bad taste from that night back then. The US are once again prohibitive favorites. Are we destined to repeat history? No we are not! for a number of reasons.
- This US team is better than that 2017 team even missing Pulisic and Weah.
- This version of T&T is quite a bit weaker than their 2017 team. They do not have a single player who plays in MLS or equal or higher level league. None. As an example, their 3 keepers: One plays for a community college in Arizona. One currently has no team. And the likely starter plays in the T&T domestic league and has a whopping 1 cap.
- US is currently ranked 11 and T&T is ranked 99. We can debate the validity of FIFA rankings all day but this isn’t close.
- The US trounced them 6-0 at this summer’s Gold Cup. With the “B” team. We started 8 players in that match that aren’t even on this roster,
- You can bet your bottom dollar that there is a sign in the locker room that simply says T&T 2 – US 1 Couva October 2017.
Am I fired up over this? Well sure probably over the top but this shouldn’t even be close. The outcome should be known by halftime in the first match. So lets play coach for a day and see how we could approach these two matches.
Missing Pulisic and Weah I believe this is the strongest lineup. There are a number of objectives in this match we need to accomplish.
- A 2+ goal victory (and preferably at least 3) to set up a much easier match for the second leg.
- Control the match well enough that liberal subs can be made at the half and early in the second half. Plan for subs:
- At half – Tillman for Reyna
- 60-65th minute – Pepi for Balogun, De La Torre for Musah, P. Aaronson for Paredes
Matchday 2:
For several years now one of the clear options has been to get both Balogun and Pepi on the field together. But the issue has always been just who do you take off? Well now we have the perfect opportunity with both Pulisic and Weah out. Missing our two starting wingers seems to be the perfect time to try a two striker formation and this midfield would be very strong in getting them the ball in dangerous situations. And lastly for heaven’s sake its time to give some keeper not named Turner a start. Send Gabriel Slonina out there. No pressure. Lets give him a shot and see what he can do!
Prediction – US wins both legs.
The US matches will be this Thursday at 9pm EST in Austin, TX with the second leg down in T&T on Monday at 7pm EST. Both matches will be shown in the US on TNT and the peacock app.
Lets do this and be set for COPA America 2024!
Soccer Analyst
Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.