USMNT – How the January Transfer Window Improves the Team

The international transfer winter transfer window was completed yesterday and quite a few players currently or potentially a part of the USMNT have been moved. With these transfers the Nats have current players in an incredible number of European countries. England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Scotland, Netherlands, and Austria all are home to capped players. While there have been a number of players transferred that are a part of the US national youth teams we are going to just look at those players that are either currently a part of the senior team or on the cusp of being so. Those players that may be a part of the team for the upcoming World Cup in November.

While the transfer window is always a huge period of excitement for club teams it tends to not get quite the same level of attention from fans from a national team perspective. Club teams are typically making winter moves for several reasons:

1. Improve their standing in their respective domestic league. Teams looking to stay or make a move up the table to secure spots in next seasons European leagues (UCL and Europa League).
2. Teams looking to avoid the relegation zone. The financial losses from say falling from the EPL down to the English Championship, as an example, at large to say the least. Sometimes the financial commitment to a big transfer makes a ton of sense.
3. Teams looking to off load players with overly expensive contracts, discontented players, and players whose skill set doesn’t fit the technical/tactical direction a team is looking to go.

But how do these types of things affect the associated national teams? Specifically why do fans of the USMNT care about the transfer window so much? There are a number of things that can happen (and not all of them are good) when US players get transferred. Lets look at the pros and cons.

Pros:

1. In general, when a player is transferred from the MLS to a European league they are exposed to better coaching, training, and competition. The speed of play for international soccer is much faster than in the MLS. Playing at a higher club level prepares players for the international game.
2. Players in the European leagues are subject to a bit more pressure from their fans and the media to produce than they are here in the MLS (note thought that the gap in this pressure is narrowing as the MLS grows and improves). Players are more acclimated to this pressure cooker that they will face with the Nats.

Cons:

1. At the end of the day you still need to see playing time. Its great to get coaching and training at the highest level but its hard to be in sharp form if all you do is ride the bench.
2. Sometimes the cultural fit isn’t a good match. Some players struggle going to a foreign club where English isn’t spoken. Communication is so critical in soccer and some players just don’t feel like the “fit in”. So while a move sounds great and they most always make more money it can also fall on its face.

Before we take a look at the moves that have occurred over the last month a short primer of the types of transfers might be beneficial.

Outright Sale:

Just what it sounds like. Team A agrees to sell a player to Team B for some amount. And in many cases there is a what’s known as a “sell on clause.” This is pretty typical with MLS transfers. As an example, when Brenden Aaronson was sold last winter from the Philadelphia Union to Red Bull Salzburg (Austrian first division) the selling price was for $6.5M (with incentives to take it to $9M based upon is performance). But it also included a sell on clause. That means that when Salzburg sells Aaronson to a bigger club (likely to happen this summer). The Union will be paid a percentage of that sale (rumored to be 20%). Leeds United tried to pry Aaronson away last month for $20M meaning that the Union would have gotten a $4M sell on fee.

Sale with Loan:

In this arrangement Team A agrees to sell a player to Team B. Then Team B agrees to transfer the player back to Team A for some finite amount of time, typically till the end of a teams current season. This ensures Team B has a lock on a player they want in the near future but enables Team A to continue using that player while they make roster adjustments to account for their pending departure.

Loan:

Again, just what it sounds like. Team A agrees to loan a player to Team B. Team A retains the long term rights to a player and Team B typically pays all or most of the players salary during the loan period. This type of transfer is widely used by the big clubs. They have deep rosters and just don’t have the matches to get all their younger players the game time needed to continue their development. So they loan that player out to another club so they get playing time while the owning team monitors their development. Then they may decide in the future to sell the player or retain them on their roster for the future.

With that backdrop lets look at some of the major transfers that occurred during the January window and how that may impact the USMNT.

Daryl Dike – Striker

Transfer – Orlando FC to West Bromwich Albion

Type – Sale for $9.7M

Impact – This is a potentially very good move. The USMNT is in desperate need for someone to step up as an impact goal scorers. The downside is that the English Championship isn’t any higher level competition than the MLS. Still if he can score well the rest of the way it could lead to a move this summer to the EPL which would improve his stock for the World Cup roster. But first he has to overcome an injury (out for two months) and really show well.

George Bello – Left Back

Transfer – Atlanta United FC to Armenia Bielefeld

Type – Sale for $670K (note that this figure doesn’t really represent his market value. His contract was nearing expiration so Atlanta chose to accept a lesser value rather than risk losing him for nothing. His current market value is estimated at $4.5M).

Impact – This could be very beneficial to the Nats. The US has a deep choice of right backs but not near as much depth at left back. Bello has played numerous matches there for the US and has shown some promise but clearly needs more experience at a higher level. Playing in the Bundesliga will get him a chance.

Austin Trusty – Center Back

Transfer – Colorado Rapids to Arsenal

Type – Sell with loan back. Trusty will stay with the Rapids till this summer then move to Arsenal. Transfer amount was undisclosed.

Impact – Given the depth of the team at center back its doubtful Trusty will be in the side come the World Cup. But you can’t have too much depth and if he happens to really shine this fall at Arsenal then it does give the US another solid option.

Kevin Paredes – Midfielder/Wing Back

Transfer – D.C. United to VIL Wolfsburg

Type – Sale for $7.35M with additional fees for performance and a future sell on value.

Impact – A solid attaching mid/left wing back could be an option for Qatar. He needs to show strongly in the Bundesliga especially the ability to score goals and assist in that regards. The US is in need of more offensive minded attacking players in the midfield.

Justin Che – Center and Right Back

Transfer – FC Dallas to TSG Hoffenheim

Type – 18 month loan until June 30, 2023.

Impact – Not likely to have an impact for the US team this cycle. Just turning 18 two months ago he’s still very young and could find his way onto the team in the future.

James Sands- Center Back

Transfer – New York City to Rangers

Type – Loan until May 31, 2023

Impact – Sands is one of those players in the mix for a end of roster spot for Qatar. But the depth at center back is deep and he has a number of players ahead of him on the depth chart. However, if he gets some work with the Rangers as a defensive midfielder his stock could rise dramatically as the US needs a solid backup for Tyler Adams besides Kelyn Acosta.

Caden Clark – Attacking Midfielder

Transfer – New York Red Bull to Red Bull Leipzig

Type – End of loan. Clark is owned by Leipzig and had been loaned back to NY. He’s now back with the Bundesliga side.

Impact – If Clark can get some serious minutes in the Bundesliga the rest of the season and next he has a shot at making the roster for WC 2022. The good news is he is also only 18 and the higher level exposure he is going to get in Germany will be very good for his career long term. While he may not be a factor for WC 2022 he is likely to have a role in the next cycle.

Chris Mueller – Forward

Transfer – Orlando FC to Hibernian FC

Type – Loan

Impact – Mueller has had several caps with the USMNT and has shown he can score. While he is on the outside looking in at the moment the US is in deep need of some players who can score on a more consistent basis. If he can show well in Scotland he may have a shot.

Cole Bassett – Attacking Midfielder

Transfer – Colorado Rapids to Feyenoord

Type – Loan

Impact – Same situation as Caden Clark.

Ricardo Pepi – Center Forward

Transfer – FC Dallas to FC Augsburg

Type – Sale for $20M (second highest ever for an American behind only Christian Pulisic)

Impact – This has the potential to be a huge boost for the USMNT. Pepi is currently the quasi #1 striker for the US but like all the others in the mix he has just had trouble scoring goals of late. But the Bundesliga side is barely above the relegation zone and clearly brought him in to boost their attack. They didn’t shell out that kind of coin to stick him on the bench. He will play and they will do everything they can to ensure his success. Now its up to Pepi to produce the goods.

Matt Turner – Goalkeeper

Transfer – New England Revolution to Arsenal

Type – Sale for $6.5M with a delayed sale until this summer (Arsenal wanted him immediately but the Revs wanted time to find a repalcement)

Impact – What an interesting move. So come this summer the USMNT will have its top2 keepers as backups. The positives of this move is that Turner will clearly get better coaching and training and play at a much higher level of competition. But then the downside….does he play? Certainly getting playing time for a soccer player is key to keeping them in form but I think its doubly so for goalkeepers. They get so few opportunities to make the big save or flub it that they just need to see the field. Hopefully between the EPL, FA Cup, English Cup, and potentially the Europa League there are enough matches to get him plenty of minutes even if he doesn’t over take the starting spot.

The future is bright for the USMNT but the focus right now is for their huge game against Honduras in the frozen north of Minneapolis and the last qualifying window in March. Lets qualify for Qatar then improve our tactics in the attack without hosing up their tremendous defense.