The road to World Cup 2022 this fall in Qatar is coming to an end. The bad news is that the US still has work to do to qualify. The good news is that it is totally within their control to make it happen. The US currently sit in second place, tied with Mexico, with 21 points, but ahead with the first tiebreaker (goal differential). As a reminder the top three finishers qualify for Qatar while the fourth place finisher earns a play in match with a team from the Oceania Football Confederation, most likely New Zealand. While the 4th place finisher in CONCACAF would be clear favorites to win that match its much preferable to avoid that. If for no other reason that the play in match will be in Qatar this summer. That’s a lot of travel for a single match with a lot on the line.

So lets look at this last window and what each team needs to do to earn advancement.

Canada

Canada is atop the table with 25 points and has been the only team to have a point window thus far. The only way they don’t advance is to lose all three of their remaining matches and have a lot of other results go badly as well. They only need a single draw in their last three matches to assure they advance. They play on the road at Costa Rica, home to Jamaica, then finish away at Panama. The question is how much will they go out after it in these matches? Hard to say but they are building momentum and would love to win the group. But winning the Ocho really means little other than bragging rights. What they do have to play for though is to continue to move up the FIFA rankings. Sitting at 33 right now they would fall into Pot 4 for the WC draw. It won’t take much upward movement to get them into Pot 3 which would be much better so they have some impetus to keep after it. And this may be good for the US.

Exploria Stadium (Orlando City Stadium) - StadiumDB.com

United States

The Nats have a ton to play for this window. Most importantly of course is to earn enough points to qualify. Secondly, is to keep a high enough FIFA ranking (sit at 13) to get a Pot 2 draw for Qatar which would be huge. But first things first. There are multiple pathways for the US to advance. They sit 4 points ahead of Panama and 5 points ahead of Costa Rica. This window they are away at Mexico, home to Panama, and finish away at Costa Rica. They are so far ahead on goal differential that realistically they only have to finish tied with either Panama and/or Costa Rica to move on. There are a lot of permutations here but lets look at the highlights.

  1. Beat Panama in Orlando on Sunday March 27th at Exploria Stadium (see above, and that view is about from my seat!). Even if they lose the other two matches they can’t finish below 4th. That would give them 24 points and Panama could finish with no more than 23. Costa Rica would have to win all three of their matches to finish above the US with 25 points.
  2. Earn a draw at Mexico or Costa Rica along with beating Panama would guarantee the US are going to Qatar as they could finish no lower than 3rd.
  3. Beat Mexico at the Azteca, something the US has never done although they have drawn there a couple of times. This would open up several paths to qualifying by drawing or beating Panama or Costa Rica. This is not the Mexican team of old. While still a very talented team the US has beaten then 3 straight times and has looked good doing so. But this is Azteca and it will be filled with their fans.
  4. Beat Costa Rica, which is another thing the US has never done on the road. The good news this time around is that its the last match in the window. If the US still needs a result they could get one here. Costa Rica is still a strong defensive side but they are aging and may be playing on dead legs.
  5. Canada plays both Costa Rica and Panama this window. Some help from our friends up north would be greatly appreciated!!

Mexico

Tied with the US with 21 points but they have the advantage this window having the US and El Salvador at home and Honduras on the road. They are playing 2 of the bottom 3 teams so should have a solid path forward. Any combination of a win and a draw puts them on 25 points. Even if they were to lose at home to the US its hard to see them not at least getting 4 points in their other two matches. But they have NOT qualified yet and their fans have been very unhappy with their performances to date. They were lucky to beat Jamaica scoring two late goals and only beat Panama 1-0 last window on a late, and controversial penalty. Look for them to be motivated.

Panama

Currently sit in 4th and the play in spot with 17 points. They can actually advance even if they lose all 3 matches this window, although that would require Costa Rica to earn no more than 1 point this window and El Salvdor to not win all three of their matches. They host Honduras and Canada sandwiching the all important match in Orlando with the US. And any of those teams getting a result helps the US. The issue for the US is that there is a good chance Canada won’t have much to play for in the last match down in Panama and Panama may be in a must win situation. This is why the US – Panama match is so critical.

Costa Rica

Sitting just outside the cut line in 5th but only a single point behind Panama. They host Canada and the US and are on the road at El Salvador. Much like the top 4 they control their destiny. They don’t score much having only found the net 8 times in their 11 matches so far but they have Kaylor Navas, probably the top keeper in the region in their end. So they don’t allow goals either. As mentioned earlier, they are a fairly old team and while that experience is good you wonder how well their legs will hold up when they realistically need to win all 3 of their remaining matches to have a shot. Looking up at four teams ahead of them will be tough to overcome.

El Salvador

While not out of the running they need a miracle and a ton of help. First they must win all 3 of their matches to have any chance. That means winning away at Jamaica and Mexico and beating Costa Rica at home (yes please!!!). Then they need Costa Rica and Panama to both lose all three of their matches. Not happening.

Jamaica and Honduras

Both are mathematically eliminated and having only pride to play for. Honduras could help the US out if they could earn a result against Panama and/or Costa Rica.

So with that backdrop lets look at this window in more detail from the US perspective. The roster and how we might approach these last three matches.

The Roster

Well another window and another par for the course. Within two hours of the initial roster announcement Sergino Dest went down with a hamstring issue and will miss this window. Then in his match last weekend with Salzburg, Brenden Aaronson also went down with an injury and will miss these matches. Hot topic of discussion among US fans is just what the heck is going on. Just so many injuries you have to start to worry that with all our talent and depth that we might have a crop of kids who are just made of glass. But right now the focus has to be on these next three mathces.

Goalkeepers – Ethan Horvath, Zack Steffen, Sean Johnson

Defense – Antonee Robinson, Miles Robinson, Walker Zimmerman, Reggie Cannon, DeAndre Yedlin, Aaron Long, Erik Palmer-Brown, James Sands

Midfield – George Bello, Yunas Musah, Kellyn Acosta, Tyler Adams, Gianluca Busio, Luca de la Torre, Cristian Roldan

Forwards – Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, Jordan Morris, Jesus Ferreira, Jordan Pefok, Ricardo Pepi, Gio Reyna, Paul Arriola

Yes its hard to not get caught up in the woe is us missing three international stars in Weston McKennie, Sergino Dest, and Brenden Aaronson. But that roster is plenty strong enough to get this done. They just need to play to their ability and get this done. With that here is how I would lineup in this window.

US vs Mexico

Playing at the Azteca is a hard thing to do. Its a hostile atmosphere and the atmosphere literally stinks. It also sits at an altitude of 7,200 feet. That is a huge issue for players who typically play at sea level. In fact several players have been sleeping in altitude tents to prepare better for this match.

There are three prevailing philosophies on how to approach this match.

  1. Put out the best possible roster you can. This is a Mexican team that can be beat, in fact the US has beaten them in their last 3 matches. This is the match in front of you. Play your best and worry about Sunday on Sunday.
  2. Yes this isn’t the strongest Mexican team but this is not the critical match this window. Play a solid lineup that can still earn a result but also keep some fresh legs for the match on Sunday. After all the match against Panama is THE match for this window.
  3. Punt against Mexico. The best way to earn 4 points this window is to beat Panama and draw in the final match at Costa Rica. And if things go badly and you need a win at Costa Rica you will have a fresher set of legs than had you played your best against Mexico.

Frankly, all three of these approaches are valid options. It just is a matter of perspective. There is to me though a potential pitfall with the third approach. If we were to play a lineup saving all our best players I worry that if they flopped and got destroyed by Mexico that the mental damage would be tough to overcome in the final two matches. After much consideration I have fallen firmly in the camp of approach #2 so here is my lineup.

The keys to this lineup are pretty simple. Kelly Acosta has played very well against Mexico and he is much more of an enforcer type player which we need with McKennie out. Plus Tyler Adams is on a yellow card and a yellow here would cause him to miss the Panama match. Reggie Cannon is the most solid defensively and suited to defend against Mexico. Both Tim Weah and Gio Reyna are coming off of recent injuries ad probably not fit enough to go 270 minutes. Could use them as second half subs. Jesus Ferreira is the hot hand (scoring a hat trick in his last MLS match0 and can play a withdrawn 9 which fits well here. Expect to see manager Gregg Berhalter use the maximum 5 subs and fairly early into the second half.

US vs Panama

All hands on deck. This is for all the marbles.

Panama will likely bunker and play for a counter attacking goal. A 1-0 result is what they will be looking for. To combat that play our most technically skilled players with a big target (Pefok) in the middle. Pump crosses into their box and look for a banger goal. These players are very good at earning free kicks. This match is going to be about getting numbers of chances and finding a way to finish a couple. Ricardo Pepi could be a key second half sub if we need a goal. If we get the lead then suspect subs like Paul Arriola and Cristian Roldan. High energy players to press Panama whenever they have the ball. If the US scores early this game could go our way big time but the longer Panama keeps a clean sheet the more the mental stress will wear on the US. They must keep their focus, especially on the back line. Panama is going to intentionally take any pace out of the game. They will foul a lot and use all the delay tactics hoping to catch us a sleep with a counter. Miles Robinson needs to have a massive game here.

US vs Costa Rica

No lineup needed here. It boils down to 2 scenarios.

  1. The US has already qualified so all the rested players get the start. Good match to try some different combinations.
  2. The US needs a result. Got to play the best combination of talent and who still has some energy left.

Lets hope we can use #1 and don’t have to see who can still go needing a point. Gather with some friends, fire up the grills, and grab a couple of cold ones and hand on for the ride. Its going to be a wild one!

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN

Steve Birrer
Steve Birrer

Soccer Analyst

Steve is an avid fan of all things soccer and the O’s. Originally from the west, he grew up in the Baltimore area. He returned to the west for college where he earned a BS degree in Chemical Engineering from Montana State University and spent 36 years working at the Idaho National Laboratory prior to retiring in 2013. It was during his school years in Baltimore where he learned to play soccer and that developed into a life long passion. He played competitively for over 40 years and was a four year starting goalkeeper at MSU. He also coached and refereed in the Idaho premier soccer and High School programs for many years.

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