#dcrising… let’s make that #dmvrising. The Washington Wizards are a good basketball team, and Wizards fever is slowly spreading throughout the DMV, Baltimore included. With likable stars like John Wall, and Bradley Beal, why not? As for long-time Wiz fans, two straight playoff runs feels great, but now the question is, can this team be great?
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That’s the question on everyone’s minds as the Wizards head into the season.
Head Coach: Randy Wittman
The subject of much criticism for his sludgy offenses, Randy Wittman deserves credit for helping turn John Wall into a star. Now, Wittman needs to do the same for Bradley Beal. That means limiting Beal’s opportunities for long twos, exchanging those looks for the three pointers that Beal is so good at.
If the preseason is any indication, Wittman has done just that. The Wizards offense has been crisp, everyone (and I mean everyone) has been shooting threes, and 37.5 percent of Beal’s field goal attempts have been threes. That’s up from 31 percent for his career.
Wittman doesn’t get enough credit for the standout coaching he did in last year’s playoffs. After resisting it for so long, Wittman finally went with a small ball look that obliterated the Toronto Raptors. Most importantly, Wittman learned his lesson. The Wizards will play the same kind of up-tempo, pace and space offense that worked so well in last year’s playoffs. That means much more small ball and stretch 4 play, and that means big things for this team.
We’ll see if Wittman can keep that tempo going throughout the season, but the preseason has offered plenty of optimism. If the Wizards’ offense continues to play so well in the regular season, Wittman may just inspire a Most Improved Coach award.
Point Guards (John Wall, Ramon Sessions)
Zach Lowe of Grantland described Wall better than anyone ever has or ever will:
Wall racing up the court with shooters flanking him is one of the most exciting snapshot moments in sports. Wall is the rare brilliant passer who has advanced beyond just finding open players — though he’s damn good at that. He coaxes guarded teammates open with dribbles and shoulder fakes designed to trick defenders into shifting just a half-step away from his target. He plays two steps ahead of everyone else.
Basically, Wall has ascended into the conversation of top point guards in the NBA. He stacks up against last year’s three MVP candidate point guards (Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and Chris Paul) and more than holds his own.
As for Ramon Sessions, the Wizards have finally found a potential long-term backup for Wall. Sessions is good enough on the ball to run the second unit, and a gifted enough off ball player to play alongside Wall at times.
Wings (Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Alan Anderson, Gary Neal, Garrett Temple, Martell Webster, Kelly Oubre)
Bradley Beal and Otto Porter round out one of the youngest and most athletic backcourts in the league. Beal’s three-point percentage has risen every year, and this year, that rise in percentage should go along with a rise in attempts. With a stroke that rivals that of sharpshooter Klay Thompson, Beal could shoot nearly as many threes as Thompson’s 7.1 per game last year. A leap like that in attempts could rocket Beal into All Star contention.
As for Porter, there is no question that he is the biggest variable in the Wizards’ season. He showed signs of life last year in the regular season before becoming a big piece in the playoffs. When Demar Derozan erupted for 20 first quarter points in Game 3 of the first round, it was Otto Porter who stepped up and kept Derozan in check the rest of the game. His performance in that game sealed the series, and that’s no exaggeration.
With Wall and Beal entrenched as the top two offensive options, Porter can play off the ball, which means his most valuable offensive skills will be cutting and shooting. Porter shot 33.7 percent from three-point range in the regular season, not great, but good enough. In the playoffs, though, Porter erupted to shoot 37.5 percent from deep. That may not be sustainable, but even the mid-30s would be good enough for Porter to keep defenses honest.
The backup situation is strong, with Gary Neal and Alan Anderson slated to play the most behind Beal and Porter. Neal is a former Spur (and Towson Tiger) with a career average of 38.1 percent from deep. He is a smart veteran who can defend and shoot, the perfect role player for the Wizards. Anderson is a competent bench scorer who can shoot a little. These bench units featuring Sessions, Neal and Anderson should be able to score reasonably well.
Garrett Temple and Martell Webster will fight for minutes as well. Temple is a great defender with an underrated handle, but he is so non-threatening in terms of scoring that he should only be played sparingly. Webster, meanwhile, never looked the same coming off back surgery. With an offseason to heal, Webster should look better. Arguably the best shooter among the Wizards’ second unit, a resurgent season from Webster would mean big things for the Wiz.
Finally, Kelly Oubre figures to play very little, mostly at the end of games that have already been decided. Summer league and preseason alike teased Oubre’s talent while flashing his very real limitations in terms of basketball IQ and shooting. Give the 19-year old some time, and he may just turn into something.
This is a deep stable of wings with upside. In a league bereft of wing talent, the Wizards are in good shape, despite the question marks that Porter brings to the table.
Bigs (Marcin Gortat, Kris Humphries, Nene, Drew Gooden, Jared Dudley, Dejuan Blair)
The headliner, and indeed the only above-average starter, among the big men is center Marcin Gortat. After finishing third in the NBA in field goal percentage and 9th among centers in points per game, Gortat maintained his offensive output while providing solid defense. Opponents hit 48.5 percent of their shots at the rim with Gortat defending, a good number for a center who isn’t known for his defense.
The four is probably the weakest position for the Wizards, especially considering Nene has seemingly been pushed to the bench. Kris Humphries is the presumptive starter, as he has knocked down 8-of-24 three pointers in the preseason and provides a bit more pace-and-space identity than Nene. Unfortunately for the Wizards, Humphries has only hit 2-of-26 three pointers in his career. Forecasting him as a stretch four is a bit much.
Drew Gooden established himself as a threat, and a fun to watch one at that, from beyond the arc last year, hitting 39 percent from deep. Gooden and Humphries don’t bring much to the table defensively, but the rest of the lineup should be strong enough defensively to cover their weaknesses.
You’ll notice I listed Jared Dudley as a big. Though he’s listed as a G/F (which is what he is) Dudley’s biggest role this year will be as a small ball four. It was a look that worked tremendously with Paul Pierce last year, and Dudley is well suited for the role this year. He is strong enough to defend in the post, and his 39 percent career clip from deep makes him an ideal option for the Wizards pace and space offense. He could conceivably get 20 minutes a night as a small ball four.
The four position is weak, but even more concerning is the lack of youth in this unit. Dejuan Blair is by far the youngest of this group at age 26, and he may or may not have a role. Getting some young talent needs to be a priority going forward.
Season Outlook
As currently constructed, this roster is good enough to let fans think they have a chance at Kevin Durant next offseason, but not quite good enough to be great without him. The best case scenario is this: Wall, surrounded by shooters, plays at an all-NBA level, Bradley Beal develops into an All-Star and the rest of the roster supplements that duo perfectly with defense and shooting. In that scenario, the Wizards are contenders for the two seed in the East, winning between 50 and 55 games.
More likely, the Wizards will be a similar team to last season, winning 45-48 games and putting up a good fight in the playoffs. That’s enough to contend for Durant, and that’s what really matters.
If nothing else, the Wizards should be more successful this season than the Ravens have been, and that alone is reason to watch. Enjoy the season.
Shawn began his writing career with Bleacher Report as a Ravens featured columnist and Breaking News Team writer. He moved on to write for Yahoo! and work on the Ravens Central Radio podcast. Most recently, he was an Editor at the Baltimore Wire. Shawn is a 2013 graduate of the Catholic University of America.