The first goal of every NFL coach, generally, is to win their division. By winning the division, you not only secure a playoff spot, but you also guarantee yourself at least one home playoff game.
Those are obviously influential to any success you may have, as you don’t need to travel and can remain within the familiar confines of your home, town, and practice facility for as long as possible. Of course, road teams win playoff games all the time, but I don’t know anyone who’d prefer to play on the road instead of at home if they had the choice.
This Sunday’s game will be important toward that end for the Ravens. Baltimore is currently the AFC’s 2nd seed. The Ravens are tied with the Chiefs with an overall record of 7-2 but have won one less conference game (4-2) than Kansas City (5-1).
What should buoy the confidence of Ravens fans is the fact that Baltimore is the best team in the NFL’s best division. The Ravens are 7-2 in the only division where every team has a winning record. Baltimore is 2-1 in AFC North play this season, with their next two games coming at home versus AFC North opponents.
In his career as a Raven, John Harbaugh is 55-38 in AFC North games (regular season only). To win 59 percent of your division games across a 16-year span is quite simply remarkable. The weather, the physicality, the field position…all these elements could easily sway a team’s chances, but Harbaugh and his staff have steadied the waters over a decade and a half. They look to improve upon that mark this Sunday against the Browns.
In Week 4, Baltimore traveled to Cleveland in what seemed to be a challenging game for the purple and black. The final result displayed disparity as the Ravens cruised, 28-3, in their most lopsided win in Cleveland since December 21, 2003. It’s been twenty years since this kind of dominance was seen on the road versus the Browns, so there’s no surprise why the Ravens and their fans are feeling good ahead of this week’s clash.
The Ravens are favored by 6 1/2 points against the Browns, which is a fairly big line considering these two teams are only separated by two games. Deshaun Watson is back at quarterback for Cleveland (unlike in the Week 4 matchup) and Myles Garrett could very well win the Defensive Player of the Year award.
Baltimore enters Sunday on a 4-game winning streak on the strength of a +81 point differential. They are cruising, but they also face a short week next week as they play host to the Bengals four days after this game.
Distractions are there for both teams, so whichever squad is able to stay focused will win this game. Here are three matchups that should play a major part in the outcome.
Ronnie Stanley vs. Myles Garrett
Ronnie Stanley has struggled this year. Myles Garrett has not. Stanely’s current PFF grade is 67.6. He’s allowed four of Baltimore’s 21 sacks so far, which equates to a 19 percent rate. That is not at all what you expect from a left tackle to whom you paid franchise money. Garrett is on a roll in 2023, as he’s recorded 9.5 sacks (.5 sacks shy of the league lead). Last time around, Garrett made one of the team’s three sacks, so given his current pace, you’d think that trend continues.
I don’t think it would drastically change the outcome of the game if Garrett gets a sack on Sunday, but I do think his constant pressure will be a problem. Stanley has a great game in him. He just needs to execute.
Justin Madubuike vs. Wyatt Teller
If you love the game of football, you’ll enjoy watching the battle between Cleveland’s right guard Wyatt Teller and Baltimore defensive end Justin Madubuike. Much of this game will depend on which line prevails: Cleveland’s offensive line or Baltimore’s defensive line.
Teller is a 2-time Pro Bowler, but Madubuike is having a career year. He has five sacks in his last four games—the first time in his career he’s made a sack in four straight games.
Whether it’s against Teller or rookie tackle Dawand Jones (EDIT, Jones has now been listed as out for Sunday), Madubuike will have to earn whatever he gets on Sunday. I think the former Aggie prevails, but not without a stern battle.
Geno Stone vs. David Njoku
In his last two games, Njoku has gained 103 yards receiving and scored two touchdowns. Those aren’t groundbreaking numbers, but they speak to how integral he is to their offense, since those stats make up 23 percent of Cleveland’s passing yards and 40 percent of their touchdowns scored in their previous two games.
Geno Stone, what can we say? The NFL’s league-leader in interceptions just keeps making plays—big plays—every week. If Watson wants to go to Njoku, he may have to take 5-7-yard passes as opposed to 15-20-yard passes. Baltimore’s defense is communicating so well right now that I can’t foresee any big coverage breakdowns, especially since Nick Chubb isn’t in the backfield to draw players up to the line of scrimmage via play action.
If Watson does choose to test Stone and company, he will do so at his own peril. I wouldn’t be surprised if Watson turned the ball over three times on Sunday.
I’m predicting a 27-20 Ravens win, as well as the following fantasy football performances from these key players:
Lamar Jackson: 20/25, 264 yards, 2 TD; 8 carries, 44 yards (23.0 fantasy points)
Mark Andrews: 7 receptions, 90 yards, TD (15.0 fantasy points)
David Njoku: 7 receptions, 55 yards (5.5 fantasy points)
Jerome Ford: 18 carries, 41 yards; 5 receptions, 33 yards (7.4 fantasy points)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.