Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture

The Detroit Lions kicked off Week 14 with a 44-30 win over the Cowboys. That loss gave life to the Lions post-season chances, and put Dallas on life support.

Let’s look at where things stand across the AFC & NFC prior to this weekend’s games.

All playoff odds mentioned are per ESPN Analytics.

Here is a link to the DVOA Rankings heading into Week 14.

NFC

NFC East – Philadelphia enters this week on a two game losing streak. Had Dallas been able to get past Detroit, they could have put a bit of pressure on the Eagles. With the Cowboys loss, the Eagles have a 2 game margin in the loss column. The Eagles currently have a 95% chance of winning the division, and a 96% of making the playoffs.  Dallas is now 6-6-1, and their playoff odds are down to 8%, with a 5% chance of winning the East.  The Eagles are 11th overall DVOA, with the 11th ranked offense, and 9th ranked defense.

NFC North – Chicago is leading the division at 9-3, and has won their last 5.  Green Bay is 8-3-1, with Detroit now 8-5.  The Packers have the highest odds of reaching the post-season at 89%, and are given a 56% chance of claiming the North.  The Bears are given a 75% chance of  making the playoffs, and a 32% chance at the division. The Lions are given a 58% chance at the post-season, and 12% of repeating as the division winner.  Detroit – even before their win last night – was the top ranked North team by DVOA at 4th overall, with the 5th ranked offense, and 6th ranked defense.  Green Bay was right behind at 5th overall, with the 4th ranked offense, and the 7th ranked defense. Chicago is still just 19th overall in DVOA, with the offense at 12th, but only the 25th ranked defense.

NFC South – Tampa Bay is atop the South at 7-5, with the Panthers now just a 1/2 game behind at 7-6. The Bucs have an 80% of making the playoffs, and a 79% chance at winning the division. Carolina has a 23% of reaching the playoffs, and a 21% chance at a division title.  The Bucs are 15th overall in DVOA, with the 18th ranked offense, and the 8th ranked defense. Carolina comes in 26th overall in DVOA, with the 26th ranked offense, and 22nd ranked defense.

NFC West – Three teams with 9 wins, with the LA Rams and Seattle both 9-3, and the 49ers at 9-4. SF is given a 91% of making the playoffs, the Rams 91%, and Seattle 88%.  LA is given the best odds at the division at 49%, SF at 27%, and the Seahawks at 25%.  Seattle and the Rams are 1st, and 2nd overall in DVOA.  The Seahawks have the 8th ranked offense, and 1st ranked defense. The Rams are 1st in offense, 4th in defense. The Niners are 10th overall in DVOA, with the 6th best offense, but just the 24th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 LA Rams
2 Green Bay
3 Philadelphia
4 Tampa Bay
5 San Francisco
6 Seattle
7 Detroit

The Rams are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 23%.

AFC

AFC East – With 11 wins, New England has nearly a 100% of making the playoffs, and currently are given an 84% chance of winning the East. The Bills have a 91% of making the post-season, but at 8-4 only a 16% chance of winning their six consecutive division title.  While the Pats have 11 wins, their just 14th overall in DVOA with the 10th ranked offense, and 26th rated defense. Buffalo is 9th overall, with the 9th ranked offense, and 20th ranked defense.

AFC North – The Ravens have a 59% chance of making the playoffs, which is equal to their chance of winning the division. Pittsburgh is given a 34% chance of the post-season, and a 33% chance of winning the North. Cincinnati has an 8% chance of winning the division. Baltimore dropped from 13th to 18th overall in DVOA after the Thanksgiving loss to Cincinnati. The Ravens have the 17th ranked offense, and 21st ranked defense. Pittsburgh is now 13th overall, with the 22nd ranked offense, and 12th ranked defense. Cincinnati comes in at 28th overall, with the 32nd rated defense.

AFC South – The Jaguars and Colts are both 8-4, with Houston a game back at 7-5. Jacksonville has won their last 3, Houston their last 4, and the Colts have dropped their last 2. Jacksonville is given an 85% chance of making the playoffs, Indianapolis is at 74%, and the Texans are a coin flip at 51%. The Colts have the highest odds at winning at the division at 41%, with Jacksonville right behind at 40%. Houston is given a 19% chance at the South title. Indianapolis is 3rd overall in DVOA, with the 2nd ranked offense, and 13th ranked defense. Houston is 8th overall with the 24th ranked offense, and 2nd ranked defense. Jacksonville is 12th overall with the 21st ranked offense, and 10th ranked defense.

AFC West – Denver is 10-2 and has won 9 straight. They’ve got a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 84% chance at the West. The Chargers are 8-4, and Kansas City is 6-6. LA has a 59% chance at the playoffs, and a 11% chance at the division. The Chiefs have won the West 9 straight years. That run appears over, with KC given only a 2% at winning the division. They still have a 41% chance at making the playoffs. By DVOA, KC is the top rated team in the West, 6th overall with the 3rd ranked offense, and 18th ranked defense. Denver is 7th overall, with the 15th ranked offense, and 5th ranked defense. LAC is 17th overall, with the 13th ranked offense, and 15th ranked defense.

Currently the most likely seeding is:

1 New England
2 Denver
3 Indianapolis
4 Baltimore
5 Buffalo
6 Jacksonville
7 Kansas City

The Broncos are given the highest odds of reaching the Super Bowl at 19%.

Sunday December 7th Games Of Note

Seattle at Atlanta – The Seahawks are a TD favorite, and given a 61.8% chance of winning.

Cincinnati at Buffalo – After beating the Ravens in Baltimore, the Bengals are 4-8. Their remaining schedule after this trip to Buffalo is the Ravens at home, at Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland. Their post-season odds go up dramatically if they’re able to upset the Bills. The Bills are a 6 point favorite, and given a 63.1% chance of winning. Seems like a likely shootout.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs have lost 3 of 4. Do they build off of their win over Arizona last week? They’re an 8.5 point favorite, and given a 73.5% chance of winning.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Colts are a 1.5 point road favorite, and given a 55.2% chance of winning.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Ravens are a 6 point favorite, and given a 65.4% chance of winning.  Lamar Jackson has been dealing with numerous injuries. Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken said this week, “I just give him a lot of credit – he’s battling each week trying to get healthy enough to be able to play every Sunday,” Monken said. “I mean, that’s what I see out of him. I see a guy that’s battling little nagging injuries, things that are stopping him from being able to get out there every day and practice.”  And then Jackson missed another practice yesterday, after getting his foot stepped on.

Denver at Las Vegas – The number 1 overall seed in the AFC remains in play, and the Broncos are a 7.5 point favorite here, and given a 69% chance of winning.

Chicago at Green Bay – The first of two games between these divisional foes. The Packers are a 6.5 point home favorite, and given a 69% chance of winning.

LA Rams at Arizona – The Rams are 8.5 point favorites, and given a 64.5% chance of winning.

Houston at Kansas City – It’s a game both teams need. The Texans are 3-3 on the road, while KC is 5-1 at home.  KC is a 3.5 point favorite, and given a 66.1% chance of winning.

Monday December 8th

Philadelphia at LA Chargers – The Eagles are 4-2 on the road, while LA is 5-2 at home. Philadelphia is a 2.5 point road favorite, and given a 58.5% chance of winning. Justin Herbert is expected to play with a broken bone in his non-throwing hand.