Week 16 Preview: Ravens at 49ers

Most games are exciting and have some compelling elements to them. There are other games that, quite frankly, are a bore.  

This game, though…this game is the game of the season. This Sunday, we’ll get to watch the best football the world has to offer. Dynamic talent, strategy, counter-moves, coaching, the crowd, the coverage. This game is appointment television. 

Both the 49ers and Ravens enter the Christmas night clash with a record of 11-3, leading their respective conference. Both teams have MVP candidates at quarterback and Coach of the Year candidates leading their clubs. Both teams have creative offensive coordinators and sound, stoic defensive coordinators. 

This game is so anticipated that I wanted to take a bit of a different approach in this week’s preview. This week I’m going to take a look at each team by position and predict where each team might have some success.  

Quarterback 

Advantage: Ravens 

Analysis: Brock Purdy is very good. He is a playmaker. Whatever the game calls for, he’s shown the ability to answer that call. His career TD:INT ratio of 3.8:1 is elite.  

Lamar Jackson is just different. He possesses ability you cannot plan for (open-field angle of pursuit, tackling leverage, etc.), because he doesn’t even know what he will do sometimes until he does it. As for the traits you can plan for (pocket passing, run tendencies, etc.), Jackson has improved on those, re-taking any advantage the defense had temporarily assumed.  

At the end of the day, this season is very close to Jackson’s 2019 MVP campaign, except Jackson has four more years of experience.  

Offensive line 

Advantage: 49ers 

Best player on each team: Kevin Zeitler (BAL), Trent Williams (SF) 

Analysis: These two groups are much closer than you may think. The prevailing thought is that since Christian McCaffrey is having such a historic season, the San Francisco offensive line is by far the better unit. I think they are better, but not by a lot. 

Baltimore is 1st in the league in rush yards. Lamar Jackson is on pace to gain 900 yards on the ground himself. But as we saw last week, the Ravens’ pass protection leaves a fair amount to be desired, especially at the tackle position—which, coincidentally, is where the 49ers’ defensive line is best.  

SF has allowed 26 sacks, while Baltimore has allowed 34. Over the course of 14 games, that disparity doesn’t seem significant (.6 sacks/game), however in a game like this, those tight margins are magnified. 

Running backs 

Advantage: 49ers 

Best player on each team: Gus Edwards (BAL), Christian McCaffrey (SF) 

Analysis: There’s no secret that Christan McCaffrey is on the short list of league MVP candidates. Gus Edwards is very good and could even gain more yards per carry than McCaffrey in this contest, but no one can make an argument against McCaffrey as the best back in football at the moment. 

Another layer folded into this intriguing matchup is that these two offenses utilize a fullback more often than most any other team. I give the slight edge to Pat Ricard and Baltimore, as Ricard outweighs Kyle Juszczyk by 70 pounds, but still moves as well as the former Raven. 

Wide receivers 

Advantage: 49ers 

Best player on each team: Zay Flowers (BAL), Deebo Samuel (SF) 

Analysis: Zay Flowers has had a strong start to his professional career. He’s so far from “figuring it out” but has still managed to make many big-time plays. Odell Beckham, Jr., Nelson Agholor, and Rashod Bateman have made key contributions themselves, but they haven’t put together as much top-end production as have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. 

Baltimore’s four receivers in 2023: 1,812 yards receiving, 11 total touchdowns. 

San Francisco’s two receivers in 2023: 1,877 yards receiving, 17 total touchdowns. 

Tight ends 

Advantage: Ravens 

Best player on each team: Isaiah Likely (BAL), George Kittle (SF) 

Analysis: Kittle would be the first choice for many, but as an overall unit, I’m going with Baltimore. If the last two weeks were any indication, Likely is nowhere near slowing down. Kittle should make a few plays, but I think Likely is better. 

Defensive line 

Advantage: 49ers 

Best player on each team: Justin Madubuike (BAL), Nick Bosa (SF) 

Analysis: For my money, this position represents the highest concentration of talent of any position group in this game. Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and Justin Madubuike is a shoo-in for the Pro Bowl, if not the All-Pro team. 

I can’t say for sure, but I suspect these groups will have two very different mandates come Sunday evening. It’s likely the 49ers will try to keep Jackson in the pocket, while the Ravens will try to force Purdy out of the pocket. 

Which quarterback is better when the designed play breaks down: Jackson or Purdy? 

Linebackers 

Advantage: Ravens 

Best player on each team: Roquan Smith (BAL), Fred Warner (SF) 

Analysis: It doesn’t get any better than this. Depending on which hair your split, these two inside linebackers are the best in the business, and their supporting cast is quite good, too. As good as Warner is, he doesn’t have the likes of Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, and Odafe Oweh at his side. Heck, Kyle van Noy isn’t even technically a starter, and he is one sack away from setting a new career-best.  

Expect Baltimore’s backers to be busy, making plays all over the field on Sunday night. 

Defensive backs 

Advantage: Ravens 

Best player on each team: Kyle Hamilton (BAL), Charvarius Ward (SF) 

Analysis: There is no one who’s currently playing the defensive back position better than Kyle Hamilton. The plays he’s making aren’t only timely and impactful, but they represent an instantaneous transfer from play call to execution. In other words, there’s no indecision. He’s playing as if he was the coach. When someone is playing fast they’re prepared. If not, they have to slow down to process everything. 

The Ravens are loaded at their secondary spots, too. Marcus Williams (assuming he’s fully healthy) is just a step behind Hamilton in terms of play making. Arthur Maulet has made numerous clutch plays in this his first year in Baltimore. Brandon Stephens had a very strong performance last week against a lively Jaguars offense. Geno Stone hasn’t made an interception in his last four games but still ranks 2nd in the league in that category (6). 

When Marlon Humphrey is your 5th-best defensive back, you have a rarified concentration of talent. The 49ers defensive backs, led by former Chief Charvarius Ward, are strong in their own right, giving up only 35 passing yards per game more than the Ravens do. But overall, there’s no disputing which unit is has had the better season to this point. 

Special teams 

Advantage: Ravens 

Best player on each team: Justin Tucker (BAL), Mitch Wishnowsky (SF) 

Analysis: Who else in the history of football would you want to have on your team when you need a clutch kick? Justin Tucker is the only answer as far as I’m concerned. He’s Adam Vinatieri with a stronger leg. 

Coaching 

Advantage: Ravens 

Analysis: The team that loses will still have an excellent head coach leading them. In close games, though, I’m going with Harbaugh over Shanahan. While Kyle is averaging twice as many wins per playoff trip, John has twice as many playoff wins overall. 

Again, in a game like this, you’ll have to split hairs to find an edge. Here’s my recap: 

Ravens: quarterback, tight ends, linebackers, defensive backs, special teams, coaching; 5-1 on the road, 3-0 against the NFC West. 

49ers: offensive line, running backs, wide receivers, defensive line; 5-1 at home, 1-2 against the AFC North. 

I’m predicting a 24-23 Ravens win, as well as the following fantasy football performances from these key players: 

Lamar Jackson: 22/32, 214 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT; 6 carries, 33 yards (22.9 fantasy points) 

Zay Flowers: 5 receptions, 91 yards, TD (15.1 fantasy points) 

Brock Purdy: 29/42, 244 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 5 carries, 30 yards (14.8 fantasy points) 

Christian McCaffrey: 19 carries, 133 yards; 6 receptions, 45 yards, TD (23.8 fantasy points)