Two more weeks to go. Two more weeks for teams to prove their cases as to why they deserve to make a run at Super Bowl LVI.
In the AFC, only one playoff spot is locked up (Chiefs), while in the NFC only two spots remain. Either way you look at it, very few teams will be dealing with “start or sit” questions as they conclude the regular season.
Last week, picks against the spread were 8-8 (16-16 overall), while point total picks took a hit at 4-11-1 (14-17-1 overall). So, in the spirit of the new year, let’s look forward. Here are my picks for Week 17 (with two bonus bowl picks at the end).
SUNDAY 1/2
Rams (11-4) at Ravens (8-7), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Los Angeles -3.5
Total: 46.5
Analysis: Lamar Jackson is practicing this week, and Tyler Huntley has been activated. The Ravens are desperate, and the Rams aren’t. Baltimore is at home against an LA team traveling coast to coast to a play a 1:00 game. This should be a close one, but I think Baltimore takes it.
Pick: Baltimore 28, Los Angeles 27 (BAL +3.5, over 46.5)
Chiefs (11-4) at Bengals (9-7), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Kansas City -5
Total: 51
Analysis: Two of the very best offenses in the league will square off here. Joe Burrow showed impressive composure last week, when despite pretty good pressure, he delivered the ball quickly and accurately to the tune of 500+ passing yards (something only 23 other players have ever done in the history of football).
I think Burrow will have another great game as he’s clearly not phased by much. The Bengals may win, too, but something tells me the Chiefs aren’t done yet.
Pick: Kansas City 31, Cincinnati 27 (CIN +5, over 51)
Dolphins (8-7) at Titans (10-5), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Titans -3.5
Total: 39.5
Analysis: This is a matchup between two very tough teams. I like the Titans to win, but Miami has been so hot that nothing would surprise me. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how Ryan Tannehill fares in his first game against the team he spent his first six pro seasons playing for.
Pick: Titans 22, Dolphins 19 (MIA +3.5, over 39.5)
Eagles (8-7) at Football Team (6-9), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Philadelphia -3.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: This game may set a record for most Alabama players on the field at one time, when the Eagles’ offense faces off against the Football Team’s defense. It’ll be a hard-fought game, but it’s clear these teams are headed in two different directions.
If and when things start to go wrong for Washington in this game, it’ll be very hard to remain locked in mentally. They won’t quit, but even though they’re at home, it’ll be hard to match Philadelphia play for play over the course of 60 minutes.
Pick: Philadelphia 28, Washington 14 (PHI -3.5, under 44.5)
Raiders (8-7) at Colts (9-6), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Indianapolis -6.5
Total: 44.5
Analysis: As much as the Raiders have had to deal with this season, Derek Carr is a much of a gamer as there is in this league. He’s the exact kind of leader they’ve needed.
The best player on the field, though, will be Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Las Vegas’ run defense is ranked 19th in the league, as they allow an average of 115.7 rushing yards per game. The Colts are 9-0 when Taylor runs for 100 yards or more in a game.
Pick: Indianapolis 27, Raiders 20 (IND -6.5, over 44.5)
Raiders (7-8) at Bills (9-6), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Buffalo -14.5
Total: 44
Analysis: What a statement by Buffalo last week. They beat a very good Patriots team on the road in a rivalry game by double digits. It’s hard to see Atlanta winning this game.
Pick: Buffalo 35, Atlanta 6 (BUF -14.5, under 44)
Buccaneers (11-4) at Jets (4-11), 1:00 pm on FOX
Odds: Tampa Bay -13
Total: 45
Analysis: Never take an NFL team for granted, but the mismatch here is sizeable.
Pick: Tampa Bay 37, New York 13 (Tampa Bay -13, over 45)
Jaguars (2-13) at Patriots (9-6), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: New England -15.5
Total: 41
Analysis: See analysis above.
Pick: New England 35, Jacksonville 0 (NE -15.5, under 41)
Giants (4-11) at Bears (5-10), 1:00 pm on CBS
Odds: Chicago -6
Total: 37
Analysis: I think this could be the closest game of the week. I don’t like the spread for Chicago, though. I think it’s too big. Whichever team wins the ground game will get the W, in my opinion. 2021 rushing ranks: New York 27th (95.5 ypg), Chicago 8th (122.7 ypg).
Pick: Chicago 24, New York 20 (NYG +6, over 37)
Broncos (7-8) at Chargers (8-7), 4:05 pm on CBS
Odds: Los Angeles -6.5
Total: 46
Analysis: Even if they weren’t at home, considering the talent gap, I think the Chargers win this game by double digits.
Pick: Los Angeles 28, Broncos 17 (Los Angeles -6.5, under 46)
Texans (4-11) at 49ers (8-7), 4:05 pm on CBS
Odds: San Francisco -12.5
Total: 44
Analysis: I think two things are clear when forecasting how this game will play out: San Francisco has more playmakers than Houston, and Houston will not quit. This is my underdog pick of the week, especially considering 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t practiced in days due to a sprained thumb on his throwing hand.
Pick: Houston 22, San Francisco 21 (HOU +12.5, under 44)
Cardinals (10-5) at Cowboys (11-4), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: Dallas -5
Total: 51.5
Analysis: Dallas is really good this year. Despite all the criticism they’ve received, they’ve won the big games and are one game behind the Packers in the race for the NFC’s top seed. Furthermore, the Cowboys are the 6th favorite to win the Super Bowl (+1000).
Arizona has had a good year as well, but they’ve been way too inconsistent in the big moments. That is the last thing you want to be true about your team as you head into the postseason.
Pick: Dallas 37, Arizona 20 (DAL -5, over 51.5)
Panthers (5-10) at Saints (7-8), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: New Orleans -7
Total: 39
Analysis: I think the Saints win an ugly one, with both teams lacking rhythm at quarterback.
Pick: New Orleans 21, Carolina 10 (NO -7, under 39)
Lions (2-12-1) at Seahawks (5-10), 4:25 pm on FOX
Odds: Seattle -6.5
Total: 42.5
Analysis: Whichever team wins this game will have won three of their last five. They won’t make the playoffs, but they will be fighting to build the best foundation possible for 2022.
Recent years would suggest this would be a dominant win for Seattle, but recent weeks are evidence to the contrary.
Pick: Seattle 26, Detroit 20 (DET +6.5, over 42.5)
Vikings (7-8) at Packers (12-3), 8:20 pm on NBC
Odds: Green Bay -6.5
Total: 47.5
Analysis: As if Green Bay needed more odds in their favor, it was announced Friday that Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins will miss this game (reserve/COVID-19 list). The Vikings were already going to be an underdog after star wideout Adam Thielen was put on IR earlier in the week…now this.
Pick: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 17 (Green Bay -6.5, over 47.5)
MONDAY 1/3
Browns (7-8) at Steelers (7-7-1), 8:15 pm on ESPN
Odds: Cleveland -3.5
Total: 41
Analysis: As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Steelers are a better team than the Browns. Seeing as how they’re getting points in what is probably Ben Roethlisberger’s last game in Pittsburgh, there’s no way I can take the Browns in this spot (against the spread or straight up).
Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Cleveland 17 (PIT +3.5, under 41)
CFB PLAYOFF
COTTON BOWL
Alabama (12-1) vs. Cincinnati (13-0), 3:30 pm on ESPN
Odds: Alabama -13
Total: 58
Analysis: As much as I’ve liked what Cincinnati has accomplished this year, this game is Alabama’s to lose. Bryce Young and Will Anderson are just different. Take the points if you’re a Bearcats fan but expect the win if you’re a Bama fan.
Pick: Alabama 38, Cincinnati 34 (CIN +13, under 58)
CFB PLAYOFF
ORANGE BOWL
Georgia (12-1) vs. Michigan (12-1), 7:30 pm on ESPN
Odds: Georgia -9
Total: 44.5
Analysis: Georgia was exposed a bit in the SEC title game but are still a very good team. Michigan, though, just feels like they’re on a mission to redeem all the heartache of years past. They’re as complete a team as I’ve seen under Jim Harbaugh, and maybe the best team in the country. Georgia is in trouble, in my opinion.
Pick: Michigan 24, Georgia 21 (MICH +9, over 44.5)
From all of us at BSL, have a safe, happy, healthy, and wonderful New Year!
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.