This is it. The final game of the regular season, at home, against a bitter rival.
Anyone who says this game doesn’t matter is wrong. It cannot affect Baltimore’s postseason standing, true, but it matters. For momentum, contract bonuses, and keeping your archrival home for the playoffs, it matters.
Thursday afternoon, the Ravens ruled out the following players: Odell Beckham, Jr., Marlon Humphrey, Malik Harrison, Daryl Worley, Kevin Zeitler, and Lamar Jackson. Zay Flowers was listed as doubtful. Thankfully, Ronnie Stanley wasn’t listed at all.
As for the Steelers, only three players were listed on their injury report and all are questionable: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Trenton Thompson, and Elandon Roberts.
This is a must-win for Pittsburgh. They’re 9-7 but have not yet qualified for the postseason. The two teams ahead of them for the final AFC spot—Indianapolis and Houston—have both defeated the Steelers this season, adding another layer of anxiety to Steeler Nation.
The Steelers have five paths to the playoffs, but the most direct ones involve winning this game. Can Pittsburgh beat Baltimore in the 60th game of this historic rivalry? We’ll find out tomorrow night.
Since 2020:
- the Ravens are 42-24 overall
- the Steelers are 39-26-1 overall
Shocker: both teams have very good overall success, but it’s the Steelers who have maintained to the upper hand in head-to-head matchups, winning six of the last seven games in this series.
Can John Harbaugh win this week and level his home record against the Steelers (currently at 7-8)? Or, will Mike Tomlin’s men clinch Pittsburgh’s 11th playoff trip since he became head coach? Here are three key matchups that will likely answer those questions.
Roquan Smith vs. Najee Harris
This is old school football right here. So much of this rivalry, and this game in particular, will be won (or lost) based on between-the-tackles running. There aren’t many players that hit harder than Smith and Harris.
In five career games against the Ravens, Harris is averaging 16.0 carries per contest. In 2023, Harris is averaging 14.3 carries per game. So even if he doesn’t see Smith every play, it makes sense that Roquan and Najee will cross paths at least a half dozen times, likely when Pittsburgh’s yards to gain are five or less.
If Smith can limit Harris’ yards after contact, the Ravens will be in good shape. Harris is so good at pushing the pile with his leg drive, that if given the ball in short yardage situation and if he’s not wrapped up after first contact, it could be a long day for Baltimore’s run defense.
Geno Stone vs. Mason Rudolph
Geno Stone has made seven interceptions this season, one behind league-leader DaRon Bland. The difference being Bland has been targeted 82 times while in pass coverage, while Stone has only been targeted 44 times. Stone has one less interception but also 38 less opportunities. He’s having the season of his life and is showing no signs of slowing down.
Stone is likely to see a lot of the field tomorrow and is likely to be tasked with defending deep balls thrown by Mason Rudolph, who’s 2-0 as a starting quarterback for the Steelers this season. Rudolph has completed 68.6 percent of his passes as a starter in 2023 for an average of 11.1 yards per attempt. As a comparison, Pittsburgh’s normal starter, Kenny Pickett, averages 6.3 yards per attempt in his career.
The passing game the Ravens see tomorrow is likely to be aggressive in terms of depth. Meaning, due to inclement weather, Baltimore may not see a lot of pass attempts, but the attempts they do see are likely to be deep down the field.
Pittsburgh is desperate to win, their two main receivers (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson) have combined for a per-catch average of 14.4 yards, and Marlon Humphrey has already been ruled out. Therefore, I fully expect the Steelers’ pass game to test Baltimore’s secondary. I also expect Stone to be ready.
Ben Cleveland vs. Larry Ogunjobi
When Kevin Zeitler was inactive last week versus the Dolphins, I was concerned about Ben Cleveland’s ability to fill in for him. I was wrong. Cleveland did a very good job against a very tough Miami front. Cleveland helped the Baltimore rushers average exactly five yards per carry; an excellent mark to reach in an NFL game. Rushing well over the course of an entire game not only demoralizes a defense, but it severely restricts what the opposing offense can do when they get the ball back.
Three months ago, when these teams played in Pittsburgh, Larry Ogunjobi, the defensive end Cleveland is likely to see most, made just one tackle, though his impact can’t be measured in stats alone.
Ogunjobi knows the Ravens perhaps as well as any Steelers player. Now in his 7th pro season, Ogunjobi has played for every AFC North team except Baltimore, so he’s well aware of Baltimore’s un schemes and adjustments. He may know what to expect, but his ability to actually affect said schemes is what will really matter.
Despite Cleveland’s solid performance in Week 17, I’ll give Ogunjobi a slight edge here. That said, Ravens offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris is amongst the very best in the business at maximizing his players’ strong suits. It should be a very interesting battle between these two.
Prediction
Ravens 17, Steelers 16
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.