It’s Steelers week.
The biggest game of the year every season is when the Ravens go on the road to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Not only is this game the biggest on Baltimore’s schedule, but it also presents an opportunity for the Ravens to accomplish something that has never been done by this franchise.
If the Ravens win this Sunday, it will be the first time they’ve won two AFC North road games in back-to-back weeks. Six times since 2002 (when the AFC North was formed), Baltimore has been faced with divisional road games in successive weeks. Six times they lost at least one of those games.
This may not seem like a big deal but consider how close of a margin the AFC North is decided by. Since 2002, 15 of the 21 division titles have been decided by two games or less, including five times when the 1st and 2nd place teams finished the regular season with the same record.
While the schedule presents a unique and early-season challenge to the Ravens, it also presents a valuable opportunity. With a win, Baltimore would remain atop the AFC and the AFC North, and would go to 3-0 in the division and 4-1 overall. To be 3-0 in this division by the first weekend in October is a significant advantage for you and a significant burden for your opponents. It’s so significant that it becomes virtually impossible for the Ravens to lose the division if they win this week.
From a Steelers point of view, there’s an equal amount of motivation heading into this matchup. So far in 2023, the Ravens’ point differential is +10.3. So far in 2023, the Steelers point differential is -9.5. Such disparity really puts the screws to Pittsburgh and forces them to play near mistake-free free football if they want to win.
Starting quarterback Kenny Pickett could miss this week’s game due to a bone bruise sustained in the Steelers’ Week 4 loss. He said on Wednesday that he will be “ready to go by Sunday.” If that turns out to not be the case, Mitch Trubisky would be the next man up. Trubisky is 1-1 against the Ravens in his career, having thrown two touchdowns and three interceptions.
Where Pittsburgh will have hope is along the line of scrimmage. In the most recent NFL Draft, the Steelers improved their personnel up front on both sides of the ball. It’ll be especially important the Steelers succeed on defense, as the Ravens have plenty of injuries they’re sorting through. If Pittsburgh is to have a chance is this game, it has to come from their defensive front shooting gaps and clogging running lanes.
As far as specific matchups to watch this week, here are three I believe will determine the outcome of this game.
- Daniel Faalele vs. T.J. Watt
- If T.J Watt isn’t the best defensive player in football, he’s absolutely on the short list. His incessant pressure always seems to result in a key sack or timely turnover. He always seems to have a technical answer for whatever blocking scheme he faces.
- Watt has been named first-team All-Pro more times (3) than Daniel Faalele has starts in his career (1). Needless to say, this may not be a good day for the 3rd-year tackle. That said, the narrative going into the Cleveland game was that the Browns front would dominate the injury-laden Ravens offensive line, and we all know how that turned out.
- Jadeveon Clowney vs. Chukwuma Okorafor
- As much as David Ojabo and Odafe Oweh have disappointed this season, Jadeveon Clowney has impressed. A late summer signing, Clowney has been a robust addition to Baltimore’s pass rush—a much-needed one at that.
- Oweh and Ojabo have combined for 10.0 sacks in 39 career games. That works out to about 4.5 sacks/season if that sack rate was for a single player. Thankfully, Clowney was available. Similar to Chris Canty, Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, and Jason Pierre-Paul, Clowney has taken the reigns as this year’s veteran defender who’s come in on late notice but has out-performed expectations. In fact, Clowney is on pace to record 80 quarterback pressures this season. No Raven has done that since at least 2006 (h/t Gordon McGuiness on X).
- According to Pro Football Focus, Okorafor, the offensive lineman Clowney is most likely to face-off against, has a current grade of 53.4. Between this matchup and the Steelers possibly having to start a backup at quarterback, Sunday is a perfect chance for Clowney to re-introduce himself to the nation as the game-wrecker we know him to be.
- Todd Monken vs. Teryl Austin
- Current Ravens offensive coordinator vs. the former Ravens defensive coordinator. Simply put, whichever coordinator can establish and sustain their preferred tempo is going to give their team the best chance to win.
- This rivalry is decided by such small margins that often times it’s not about which team makes the most plays, but about which team avoids the most mistakes.
I’m predicting a 27-13 Ravens win. I’m also predicting the following fantasy football outputs from these key players:
Mark Andrews: 7 receptions, 66 yards, 2 touchdowns (18.6 fantasy points)
Justin Tucker: 3/3 extra points, 2/2 field goals from 40+ yards (13.0 fantasy points)
Calvin Austin III: 4 receptions, 81 yards; 1 carry, 19 yards (10.0 fantasy points)
Najee Harris: 18 carries, 55 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 receptions 22 yards (13.7 fantasy points)
Born in Baltimore, Mike had long been drawn to sports of all kinds. Growing up watching Cal Ripken play ever day gave him a great example for which to attack every endeavor he undertakes.
When the Ravens came to town, though, that’s when Mike found his passion. Since that time, he’s tried to gain every bit of knowledge he could. Now as a high school coach, Mike is able to take his film study and appreciation of the game to a new level.
To engage with Mike on social media, follow him on Twitter @MikeFastNFL.