Welcome To June; Facts and Opinions

With a 5 run 9th inning Saturday, and a 9-5 win today; the Baltimore Orioles salvaged a four game split with the Jays.

In homage – and with the usual apologies –  to former Baltimore Sun / Comcast Sportsnet / Baltimore Ravens Columnist John Eisenberg; here is my version of John’s Fact & Opinion column based on what we’ve seen from the Orioles over the initial two months of this 2026 season.

Fact: The O’s are entering June with a 28-32 record.

Opinion: If the O’s don’t comeback yesterday, and win today; the pitchforks and torches would have been out in Birdland tomorrow.  There are some O’s fans looking to lynch General Manager Mike Elias in the town square. Are these wins a stay of execution? A delay of the inevitable? Or can they be a catalyst towards a turn around?

Fact: Elias took the O’s GM job in November 2018.  Before he took the job, the O’s won 47 games in that ’18 season.  After taking the job, the O’s won 54 games in ’19.  ’20 was obviously a shortened-season with the pandemic. The ’21 team won 52 games. Things turned positive in ’22, as that team attempted to win some games, and had a winning season with 83 wins. The ’23 team won 101 games.  They fell back to 91 wins in ’24, going 33-33 after the All-Star Break.  In ’25, the Birds fell back under .500, finishing with just 75 wins.  O’s Manager Brandon Hyde was let go last May, and the O’s were 21-36 entering June 2025.

Opinion: Every GM is going to have moves which don’t workout.  Every GM is going to make decisions which can be questioned and second guessed.  There might also be organizational philosophies where some fans can never get get aligned with.  But ultimately GM’s are graded by a simple PASS / FAIL metric.  Did you win enough? Expectations certainly play a part in answering that question.

When you take over a team that looked like the 1961 New York Mets, there is a universal understanding you aren’t contending in the near-term.

It’s understood at that point that the new Administration would bring in their people, and their thinking.
It’s understood that anything of remaining value at that point is going to be moved.
You aren’t going to spend money to try and win 60 games.
You’ll make trades where possible for more lottery tickets, and team control.
You’ll try and build a group of players coming at the same time, and look to have a window of contention.
Ideally you will build in a way to have multiple bites at the apple, vs going in on any one particular year.
That when you have a cheap existing core capable of contending, that you’ll look to augment that group with help in Free Agency, or via trade of expendable assets.

I feel that’s what Elias generally did.
I’ve never considered him a Magician, or thought what he has been attempting to build was overly unique.
What I liked was that I thought he operated systematically and with a consistent plan that to me the O’s had lacked in the previous 35 years before he took the job.

There are decisions Elias has made which can be questioned.
There are philosophies which can be debated.
Maybe I’m the lone one locally, but I’m still in on Mike.
I’ll acknowledge his failings, but generally would still like his judgements at the helm; vs. seeing the O’s make wholesale changes in leadership.

That can be my opinion, but I can’t argue with anyone that retorts that he’s had enough time, and the O’s haven’t won enough.
That’s fair, and I can’t claim to be happy with the current results.

The O’s made things look easy in ’23, and expectations at that point were rightfully raised.
The O’s stepped back in ’24, but they still finished with 91 wins.  It felt worse, because they were just .500 after the All-Star Break.
Obviously the wheels came off last year, with the O’s using over 70 players, and the season being disappointing from start to finish.

So, when you have a mediocre 2nd half of ’24, followed by a poor ’25, and then ’26 doesn’t look much better after 60 games – it’s perfectly understandable that a lot of people are ready for a change in leadership at the top of the Orioles Baseball Operations.  That’s not a limited sample of games.  We’re looking at a 288 game stretch, where the O’s have gone 136-152.

That’s extended below-average mediocrity which feels like futility when the expectations of annual contention were set.

Fact(s): Jordan Westburg is out for the year, without a game played in ’26.  Felix Bautista will likely miss all of ’26.  Zach Eflin was limited to 3.2 innings before his season ended. Dean Kremer started ’26 at Norfolk, and was limited to 2 ML starts before hitting the IL.  He’s been out of action since.  Kyle Bradish started slow.  Trevor Rogers has an ERA approaching 7.  Ryan Helsley has been on the IL since the end of April. Gunnar Henderson has an OPS under .700.  Pete Alonso’s OPS (.752) is about 100 points below his career average.  Jackson Holliday has played just 12 games this year, after starting the year on the IL.  Colton Cowser had a really rough first 6 weeks.  Taylor Ward has 2 homers in 214 ab’s, after having 36 last year for the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s ERA is a run higher than last year.

Opinion: Given all of that, it’s somewhat remarkable the O’s are only 4 games under .500.  You can say Elias has culpability with some of these above items. Eflin having injury issues (even if it was right away), isn’t shocking. Nor is Bassitt maybe falling apart at age 37.  I’d argue that Elias recognized those possibilities, but was trying to have strength in numbers.  If X doesn’t perform, I still have Y. Just gets harder when options X,Y, and Z aren’t working or available.  Maybe the primary issue with the building of this ’26 roster in-particular was the reliance on Rogers.  Every prognostication on the ’26 Orioles (including my own) said that with the way the O’s were built, they were counting on Rogers to be a 3rd starter or better.  Really hoping he’d be more of a front-end starter vs. a reliable mid-rotation type.  After his 18 outings of dominance last year, I think it was realistic to expect Rogers to consistently be a positive contributor.  Instead, he’s got 6.84 ERA through 10 starts.  Rogers has had previous years where he was a back-end starter. Elias had to know that was a possible outcome for Rogers in ’26, and should have been factored into the decision making process with the rotation as a whole. But I can’t fault Elias if he didn’t have Rogers = complete implosion on his Bingo card.

Fact: Rogers had 1.2 innings vs. Boston on April 25th. He didn’t pitch again until 5/12.

Opinion: I didn’t love that decision. They could have given him a rehab outing. The decision with Rogers I really didn’t like, came this past Friday night vs. Toronto. Rogers came into the game really struggling, and then he comes out looking great for 6 innings.  It was a perfect opportunity to get him off the mound after 6 shutout innings, feeling good about his performance. Letting him have something to build off of. Instead, O’s Manager Craig Albernaz tried to get another inning out of him, and Rogers wound-up being tagged for 4 runs in the 7th.  I know the pitch-count was low, and Albernaz is dealing with limited options in the bullpen – but that wasn’t a good decision.  Rogers is the biggest variable on the roster right now to me.

Fact: Albernaz has completed his first 60 games as a Major League Manager.

Opinion: My opinion that Managers have limited impact in 2026 Major League baseball hasn’t changed, but I have no problem with the job Albernaz is doing with the parts of the job we can see.  Of course 98% of the job is the job we don’t see. The relationships behind the curtain.  Dealing with players, Management, even Ownership, the Media. Keeping everyone aligned even when things look bad. Focused on the next one. Getting a bunch of adults to walk in one direction.  The baserunning was atrocious last year, and that hasn’t improved.  Some other aspects of fundamentals seem to be lacking with parts of this roster, but I’m not placing that on Albernaz either.  By all accounts he’s stressed fundamentals from Spring Training on.  You’d have to say that despite their setbacks, they’ve shown some fight. Manager’s typically get deserved credit there.

Fact: At 28-32, the O’s are 4th in the AL East, 1 GB of Toronto who is in 3rd.  Toronto is currently the 3rd AL WC, tied with the Athletics. The O’s are 19-15 at home, and 9-17 on the road. They’ve been outscored by 38 runs. The Rays lead the division, and are 9.5 games up on the O’s. New York is the lead AL Wild Card, and 8 games up on the O’s.

Opinion: The O’s don’t need to be thinking about the Rays and Yankees anytime soon.  The focus needs to be getting up and over. 500, and on the White Sox, Jays, and A’s who are-front of them with the 2nd and 3rd AL Wild Cards.  And frankly can add Texas to that watch list (who is tied with Baltimore, at 1GB of the 3rd WC), along with Minnesota, Houston, and Boston who are all within 3.5 games of the 3rd WC.  It’s a bunched together American League amongst these potential WC teams.  Who is going to pull away and start to show consistent improvement?  You don’t want to get deep into the year, and the only chance of reaching the post-season is that 3rd WC.  Would like to get into that 2nd WC position, and feel more secure.  Last year the 2nd WC (Boston) won 89 games.  While Detroit and Houston were tied for the 3rd WC with 87 wins.  At 28-32, the O’s probably need to go something like 60-42 the rest of the way.  60-42 is a .588 winning percentage.  There are only 5 teams in baseball who currently have a winning percentage at .588 and above.

Fact: Samuel Basallo has a .860 OPS.

Opinion: Wow. The ceiling looks incredible.

Fact: Coby Mayo had a .716 OPS in May.  Blaze Alexander had a .881 OPS in May.

Opinion: I feel good about 3rd right now. It would have been great if Westburg had been healthy, and held down 3rd all year. I think he’s missed. Mayo is never going to be great (or even good) at 3rd, but he’s a little better than I expected. You can see some progress, and he continues to work.  All along we’ve said he’s going to make his bones with his bat. He’s getting more comfortable. The power is ridiculous. He plays with some swag, which I like. I think the bat might regularly produce here on out. I would still like to see him go to RF more often.  Alexander is a fun watch. Versatile. Strong defensively. Bat is showing something. He can replace Mayo in close and late situations.

Fact: Jackson Holliday has a .758 OPS through his first 12 games of ’26.  After an .805 OPS in April, Jeremiah Jackson had a .497 OPS in May.

Opinion: I began to worry about Holliday a bit when he had multiple rehab stints halted with continuing pain after has hamate bone surgery. It’s been good to see him get back, and show that the power has not been impacted. Him regularly producing would provide a lift, and further length to the lineup.  Despite his May struggles, I like J. Jackson.  I like him that much more, when you aren’t relying on him to carry you.

Fact: Shane Baz had a 4.45 ERA in 5 May outings after a 4.08 ERA in 5 April outings. Bassitt had a 4.62 ERA during May, after a 4.94 era in 5 April outings. Bradish had a 3.49 era in 5 May outings, vs. a 4.26 era over 5 April outings.

Opinion: Bradish has clearly turned a corner, and looks like the Bradish we expected.  Baz has allowed 5 er over his last 3 starts (20 innings), and is coming off of his best start to-date. Can’t say I’m super confident in Bassitt, but his start Thursday vs. Toronto was encouraging.

Fact: Brandon Young has made 8 starts. He’s 3-1, with 3.35 ERA. His chase % is excellent.

Opinion: His xERA of 4.28 is almost a run higher than his actual era, but encouraging all the same.  He entered the year at Norfolk as basically the 8th starter. Right now he’s regularly giving the O’s a chance. The Orioles would be in a world of hurt, without his performance year-to-date. Stuff appears to have ticked up from last year.

Fact: When the just ended homestand began May 20th, Cowser had a .520 OPS.  He’s headed to Boston with a .676 OPS.

Opinion: We said before the homestand we wanted to see him get regular ab’s and sink or swim. Great to see him get going.  A sub .700 OPS isn’t good enough over the long-haul, but he’s lifted his numbers to reasonable. He was at .768 for the ’24 season. That’s where you want to see him keep pushing to.

Fact: Dylan Beavers began doing swing work in the cage 3 days ago.

Opinion: He was on the upswing before the oblique injury.  Will be interested to see how Albernaz divides time between Cowser, Beavers, and Taveras when all are healthy and again available. Taveras had a .720 OPS in May after a .864 OPS in April.

Fact: Helsley is ramping up his rehab work, and is still aiming to return to the O’s bullpen sometime in June.

Opinion: Good, they need him. If the rotation is generally better in-front of the relievers, and they have a legitimate Closer in the back-end – then maybe the pen comes together. I generally like the current group of arms, but it’s a different feel when you don’t have that guy you count to lock things down available.

Fact: Entering play today, the O’s were 10th overall in runs scored, 10th in slugging, and 14th in on-base %.  They were 26th in ERA.

Opinion: If Henderson, Alonso, and Ward hit towards their expected levels in June – we could enter July feeling the O’s have a pretty strong offense.

The O’s are entering June 4 games under .500.
They haven’t played particularly well, but they aren’t buried.

I say that, fully acknowledging that had they lost these last two games – it would have certainly felt as they were underneath an avalanche.
That points to the idea they remain in a precarious position. Any set-backs, and they could fall off a cliff.

But they’re also in a position to climb.

We pointed out above they haven’t played well on the road.
June begins with 6 games on the road in Boston, and in Toronto.
If they can go win two road series vs. their division rivals, that would be a good start to the month.