Welcome To September

The Orioles have entered September with a 78-59 record.

The O’s are 1.5 GB of NY in the East, and are the lead Wild Card with a 4 game lead on Kansas City, and a 5 game lead on Minnesota.

The O’s are:

4th overall in runs scored

1st overall in slugging

11th overall in on-base %

12th overall in era

+82 in Run Differential (8th best)

There are 25 games left in the regular season, representing 15% of the season as a whole.

The September schedule:
9/1 @ Colorado
9/2 – 9/4 Chicago White Sox
9/6 – 9/8 Tampa Bay
9/9 – 9/11 @ Boston
9/13 – 9/15 @ Detroit
9/17 – 9/19 San Francisco
9/20 – 9/22 Detroit
9/24 – 9/26 @ New York Yankees
9/27 – 9/29 @ Minnesota

Zach Eflin is back on the mound today.

Grayson Rodriguez is back throwing from flat ground. Barring a set-back, he will be back.

Jacob Webb beginning rehab stint soon.

Jordan Westburg and Danny Coulombe are also progressing.

Quick Hits: 

1) The play has been substandard for a couple of months. As such there isn’t a lot of confidence from the fanbase right now about the rosters prospects for doing anything of significance in October. My thought is, stop worrying about October. Focus on each individual series. Get back to winning series. Eflin has returned. Get these other guys back in the fold. Close the gap on the Yankees by the time you get to New York. If I was in the Oriole clubhouse, my goal would be on winning the East.

2) Ramon Urias was forced to the Injured List after rolling his ankle last night.  Coby Mayo is back up. Urias was very productive in July and August. He was giving the O’s stability at 3rd.  Him on the IL is another blow. Mayo is an elite prospect. I think it’s pretty clear his Oriole future is not at 3rd, but he has a strong arm, and he had 65 games at 3rd for Norfolk, and another 7 with the O’s previously.  His bat warming up would be great. Defensively you just need him to be adequate and not a liability.

3) Corbin Burnes had a 7.36 era in August.  Just 22 k’s in his 34 innings.  He’s still going to get a lot of money in Free Agency.  If September is a slog for him, it might reduce the total years he was hoping to get. For the O’s immediate prospects, a poor September from Burnes would likely eliminate any chance at winning the East, and certainly wouldn’t have you feeling good about the O’s prospects in October. The O’s need him to be a productive difference maker down the stretch. What I had really enjoyed about him through July was his consistency. He wasn’t overwhelming, but he was churning out quality starts every time out.  Maybe I’m naive, but I figure he finds himself.

4) I wish I had similar confidence in Craig Kimbrel waking up.  Kimbrel followed his July where he had a 6.52 era, with a August where he had a 7.27 era.  In August, he allowed runs in 4 of his 9 outings.  He’s allowed 5 homers in his last 18.1 innings.  I’ve defended Kimbrel a fair amount this year, because was generally meeting my expectations. He turned 36 in May. There was no expectation of him being 2023 Felix Bautista. We knew he had a reputation of being his own worst enemy. That there would be outings where he blew up, and looked horrible. But what we saw through June was a guy that was still useful.  A guy that might occasionally fail, but most times out was going to help.  Right now, there is zero confidence in him. You would like to see him string together a number of positive outings in lower leverage situations, and hope there would be increasing confidence. But it’s September, and every game matters, and every game feels like a grind.  So you are in this position where you can’t really hide him, and there really aren’t a whole lot of lower leverage situations to put him in. What’s a shame is that his K%, and Whiff % remain excellent.  With his 440 career saves, you would like to be able to hand him the ball in the situations which dictate it – but you can’t do that when you are holding your breath every time he enters the game.

5) Dean Kremer has a forearm bruise after taking a line drive off the bat last night.  We will have to see if he’s able to avoid the IL.  With Eflin back, and currently including Kremer, you have those two plus Burnes, Cole Irvin, Cade Povich, and Albert Suarez for the rotation. You can’t say enough about Suarez in my opinion. The guy is 34 years old. Prior to this year, his last Major League pitch came in 2017. He’s given the Orioles 109 very needed innings. When Rodriguez went on the IL, he went back into the rotation, and had a 1.97 era in August, which included 5 starts.  With Burnes struggling in August, he’s often looked like the O’s best starter.  Remarkable.  I’d still be inclined to be moving him to the bullpen. That’s not because I think he should be the odd man out, it’s because I think he’s capable of being a weapon to the pen and a difference maker there. You really don’t want Irvin and Povich coming out of the pen. Kremer maybe, but I’d prefer Suarez.   Could Rodriguez be converted to reliever for the remainder of ’24 when he gets back to the Birds? Maybe?  But I’d think they’d rather keep Rodriguez on regular rest and schedule.  I keep waiting for Suarez to hit a wall, but he did have 162.2 innings in the Korean League last year.  It’s a tough question, and maybe I have it wrong. Maybe the O’s are best served at this point by keeping Suarez in the rotation. I keep picturing him, with a returning Webb and Coulombe – teamed with Yennier Cano, Seranthony Dominguez, Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin, and Gregory Soto; and thinking maybe a viable pen can still be pieced together.

6) Adley Rutschman had a .482 OPS in July, and a .625 OPS in August.  Light has to come on for him in September.