What Are The Available Options? What Is The Best Possible Path?

Heading into tonight, the Orioles have lost their last four games, and are 15-19 overall.

They are 8 games back of the Yankees in the AL East, 1 game out of the 3rd Wild Card (basically 7 teams within 1.5 games).

The O’s have been outscored by 30 runs, which is the worst mark in the American League.

All of the positive vibes that existed in Spring Training have long since faded.

The hope that some held that a change to Craig Albernaz from Brandon Hyde would lead to improved fundamentals, no longer seems to exist.
And that’s not a knock on Albernaz or a compliment to Hyde; only acknowledgement that issues remain, and a Manager’s importance is overstated.

Mike Elias has held the keys of the Baseball Operations department since November 2018.
Daniel Rubenstein became Owner of the Orioles in March 2024.

Nobody in The Warehouse can be particularly happy at the moment, because nothing looks good right now, and time continues to tick further away from the Orioles last World Championship in October 1983.

Some thoughts on what we’ve seen, and the different directions this season may yet go.

Your Best Players Have To Perform

This is a self-explanatory statement, right?

Gunnar Henderson has a .735 OPS, which includes an on-base % under .300.
Pete Alonso is warming up, but is still hitting just .214.
Taylor Ward’s overall numbers are solid, but he has just 1 homer over his first 125 ab’s as an Oriole.
Kyle Bradish has made 7 starts, he’s 1-4, with an ERA over 5.  He’s walked at-least 3 batters in 6 of his 7 starts.
Trevor Rogers is now on the IL, but had a 4.75 ERA over his 6 starts.

Gunnar will finish with quality numbers, he’s too talented to struggle extensively.
Pete is finding his stroke, and playing a better 1st base than advertised. I’m sure his final numbers will look like what you’d expect.
Taylor’s average will likely come down, and he will likely find the seats more-often.

For clarity, I don’t think Taylor is the third best position player, but the O’s need regular power from him.

Assuming Rogers returns to the rotation soon and stays available; the O’s ability to ascend and look like a contender is largely tied to them being consistently good front-end starters the rest of the way.
You’d be hard-pressed to come up with a scenario where the ’26 O’s end up being a quality team, without getting much more from this duo.

Best Ability Is Availability

2024 All Star Jordan Westburg has yet to play a game. Potentially he becomes available in June.

(EDIT: @JakeDRill 57m Jordan Westburg (right UCL sprain) was still feeling discomfort in his elbow when he was throwing. Orioles are shutting him down and he’ll be re-evaluated later.)

Jackson Holliday was the 1st overall selection in the 2022 MLB Draft, and basically the consensus number 1 overall Minor League prospect when he ascended to the Majors in April 2024.
He has yet to play a ML game this year.  He has not yet returned to his latest rehab assignment, after having lingering pain from the hamate bone surgery.

Obviously Felix Bautista is expected to miss all of this year, with a slight opening for a late 2026 return.

Zach Eflin lasted 3.2 innings before needing Tommy John surgery.
Ryan Mountcastle is on the 60 day IL with a foot injury.
Heston Kjerstad has started baseball activities, but has yet to get back into games at the Minor League level.

Dean Kremer is going to miss several weeks with his quad injury.
Rogers went to the IL with an illness.
Ryan Helsley went to the IL with elbow injury. Imaging apparently negative, but still a loss in the immediate.

Adley Rutschman had a trip to the IL, and missed time.

That’s the O’s starting 3rd baseman, their starting 2nd baseman, their Closer, their replacement Closer, their first or second best starter, two other starters, and two other bats that could potentially give you something if healthy – and can’t give you anything right now when unavailable.

Jeremiah Jackson has produced at a level so far, which Holliday might not have matched.
Coby Mayo isn’t matching what you’d expect to get from Westburg.

Bringing Eflin back was fine in the sense that you weren’t expecting to rely on him, you were hoping he’d be a bonus.
But him immediately going out, immediately impacted the depth you’d hope to have.
Losing Kremer hurts.
Losing Rogers for a couple of turns hurts; but not as much as him not performing like the front-end starter the O’s need him to be in his 6 starts so far.

I – and everyone else – thought Mountcastle would be moved in the Spring, but worked out for him to make the roster.
Maybe not the best roster construction there. Another bullpen arm for him could have been useful.

Kjerstad was miserable last year in the Majors and AAA, but showed something early in Spring Training with a return to health.
When he’s again available, if he can put the beaning he took in NY behind him; I still think he could help a roster.  He’d have to go to AAA, and earn his way back, but given the current options; he’s a strong month at AAA from being back in the mix. Again, has to actually play and produce first though.

There was no expectation of Bautista being available; which is why the O’s rightfully pursued a closer of Helsley’s pedigree.
But there were questions about Helsley’s 2nd half of 2025, and calls from many people to find another high-leverage reliever better than Andrew Kittredge.

Injuries are part of the game.
Other teams have injuries.
You have to have real depth as an organization to get through 162 game seasons, and you can’t hold on to every injury as explanation for lack of team performance.
But there is cumulative impact when there is consistent attrition.

If Westburg, Holliday, Rogers, Kremer, Helsley are back in an Oriole uniform and performing; the roster looks different.

Basallo, Mayo, Cowser, Beavers

This quartet is a regular topic of conversation for me when I’m looking at the current roster.

Until Westburg gets back, and proves he can stay in the lineup; Mayo has an extended opportunity.
He’s not running with it, as he has 6 xbh’s in 85 ab’s.  He’s batting .165, and has a .540 OPS.
We saw the homers in three successive games. The power is there. He has to get away from being so pull happy, and use the field.

All positive thoughts on Basallo right now.  He’s using the whole field, his power is ridiculous. The bat speed. He’s got a .764 OPS entering tonight.
That’s outstanding for his age. He’s a gamer too. Like the intensity of the 21 year old. I think he must lead the O’s in replay challenges and I’m not sure his percentage is high.
Maybe that’s the only (silly) critique. Someone more serious would say he could stand to improve a bit further behind the plate, and that’s fine; but he’s usable there.

Colton Cowser was a 2021 1st round pick, that became a Top 50 overall prospect.
In ’24, Cowser had a .768 OPS over 499 at-bats, which included 24 homers.
Last year was a mess. An injury riddled 92 games, where he never looked right, and struggled against off-speed offerings.
This year, he’s only had 60 ab’s so far, but he’s batting .183 with 2 doubles, and 22 k’s.
Look, it’s just 60 ab’s, which over a full-season of ab’s is not a large sample size, but he’s not earning his name into the lineup everyday and that’s an issue.
He’s a plus defender in LF, and average in CF.
If the O’s are going to turn things around; I think Cowser finding himself would be significant.
If he was producing like he did in ’24, that gives the lineup additional depth.
If he’s a total non-performer, that’s a pretty huge void.
Clearly the book on him is don’t give him a fastball.
And he’ll either adjust or he won’t.
A lot of people have completely written him off.
I haven’t, but the clock is ticking.  He’s 26 years old.
He has to start having better at-bats in the opportunities he gets, or the opportunities he gets will only reduce further.

Dylan Beavers had a 19% BB rate last year, and that’s down to 10.5%.  The slugging is also down.
The O’s believe he has the tools to be a good defensive OF, but the defensive metrics are not good right now.
Between last year and this year, he’s closing in on 200 ML at-bats, with a .711 OPS.
This O’s team needs him to get on-base at higher clip, and provide quality defense.

The Rotation Without Rogers, Kremer, Eflin

Bradish, Baz, Bassitt, Young, Povich, Gibson, Wells

We talked about Bradish above.
If he’s not a consistent front-end starter for the O’s here on out; I don’t know how you overcome that.

Baz was better in his last outing, and the O’s need him to be equally good tonight.
He used a 2 seamer more often, which I thought was good to see.
Seemed like he had more movement. He’s had 6 k’s in two of his last three outings, which is also good to see.

Bassitt also took a step forward with his last outing vs. Houston. Going 6.1 innings, and allowing 1 er.
Over his last four starts, he has three outings with 1 er or less.  The fourth outing in that mix where he was tagged for 5 runs over 5.1 in KC.
With Rogers and Kremer down, it’s pretty important that Bassitt continues to look like someone you can rely to give you competitive outings vs. being another spot the O’s need to replace.

Young and Povich took losses the last few days vs. Houston and NY.
Young had given the O’s two very usable starts vs. the White Sox and Red Sox before being smacked around for 7 er in 4 innings vs. Houston.
Povich had two good outings vs. Pittsburgh and San Francisco, before allowing 5 er in 4 innings Friday in New York.
Ultimately I think the O’s can feel reasonably good about these two right now.
These were the 7th and 8th starters on the O’s depth chart when Opening Day arrived.
If when called upon, they generally keep you in games, that’s a win.
I don’t think you want to be in a position to rely on either as rotation cogs, but I don’t feel like the O’s have zero chance when it’s their turn.

Yesterday we saw the ML debut of Trey Gibson, who went 4.2 in NY, allowing 3 er, including 2 er.
That was a tough spot for a debut, and he acquitted himself pretty well.
A year ago at this time he was in High A, so I don’t think he is exactly fully baked.
Similarly to Young and Povich; it would be a problem if you have to rely on him right now as a regular starter.
But looks like currently useful depth, that can bridge until Rogers and Kremer return.

Tyler Wells was sent back to AAA Norfolk over the weekend, presumably to be stretched out as another starting option.
I don’t think Wells can last the entirety of a season as a starter, but we’ve seen him (2022, and 2023) have 20 game stretches as a productive starter.
In my-head he’s the in-case of emergency pull the ripcord for some rotation stability guy.

Current Goals & Current Realities

There are 26 games left in May including tonight.

At 15-19, the O’s would have to go 15-11 over these next 26 games to enter June at .500.

That would be my goal, and current hope for this roster.

Get to June at .500.

Hopefully get Rogers and Kremer back in the rotation.
Hopefully get Westburg and Holliday back in the lineup.
Get Helsley back in the bullpen.

Get Rogers and Bradish back looking like front-end starters.
Get Henderson back looking like the MVP caliber talent he is.

None of that seems unreasonable to me.

On the other-hand, it also doesn’t feel unreasonable to believe the O’s could go something like 11-15 over these next 26 games, and be staring at a 26-34 record to enter June.

Other Reinforcements? 

ESPN has their updated list of the O’s Top 10 current prospects as:

1. Trey Gibson, RHP
2. Nate George, CF
3. Enrique Bradfield, CF
4 Esteban Mejia, RHP
5. Joseph Dzierwa, LHP
6. Ike Irish, RF
7. Boston Bateman, LHP
8. Luis De Leon, LHP
9. J.T. Quinn, RHP
10. Wehiwa Aloy, SS

We’ve seen Gibson.  Bradfield is the only other player here that I think we could see anytime in the next few months, and he’s got a .709 OPS in 49 ab’s at AAA Norfolk.
His promotion would solely be the O’s deciding they aren’t getting enough from their existing OF’s, they might as well have an excellent defensive CF.
Right now, Leody Taveras is doing enough with his playing time (and Bradfield isn’t doing enough at AAA) that we’d see this move anytime soon.

So, the question I’d have is, would Elias being willing to relinquish some of the current Top 10 for immediate help with the ML roster?
Are there pieces on the Giants, Rockies, Mets, Angels, Twins that would make sense for the O’s to target?
Bullpen help? Platoon OF’s with defensive ability? Another INF, if you don’t feel good about the health prospects of Westburg and Holliday?

Or, if the O’s enter June buried in the division, does the calculous change to who on the current roster does Elias look to move, to add to the current organizational depth?

Rutschman & Henderson

Rutschman is under contract through ’27.
Henderson is under contract through ’28.

I’m always of the opinion you don’t have to have any individual player in baseball to contend.
It’s a team game.
I’m also of the mentality that I’d rather trade a guy like Henderson after ’26 – when he has 2 years of team control remaining – and get back the large return of talent and team control he’d demand; vs. just playing out his control and watching him leave in Free Agency.

Some would rather have him in an O’s uniform for every game he’s available.
Some others would argue, “Just get an extension done.”
I’d like to see him stay an Oriole, and if both sides can find a deal which works, great.
But you can’t force him to extend.

If you aren’t going to contend, I don’t see how you just let things ride out with them.
If you are committed to contending, and riding out their contracts; then you (Elias) might have to figure out how to get some additional reinforcements to the roster.