The old man comes home: What I expect from Brandon Stokley

We’ve all heard the jokes by now: “The Ravens have added some great offensive weapons!…if it was 2007.” Stokley, along with Dallas Clark, has been added to the roster presumably to bolster the after a mediocre showing on . Brandon Stokley is 37 years old with injury concerns but when he’s on the field, he can still be an asset to the Ravens passing game. So what can Ravens fans realistically expect from him? I went back to his 2012 season with the Broncos to find out.

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A couple stats for reference

Brandon Stokley led the league in two very telling categories:

1. Percentage of total routes run from the slot: 94%
2. Catch rate from the slot: 80.4% (45 receptions from 56 targets in the slot).

This tells us that Stokley is almost exclusively a slot receiver and that when targeted, he is reliable (2 total drops in 2012). We also know (from Mike Randall’s piece via PFF) that 80% of Stokley’s targets were <20 yards downfield and 57% of his total targets were <10 yards down the field. From a stats perspective, we can count on Stokley to be a reliable underneath threat for the 2013 Ravens. Stats, as good as they can be, only tell part of the story. So I went back to the film to determine how Stokley can be integrated this coming season:

Working underneath

Stokley struck me as very intelligent on film. His experience in the league gives him an advantage in the short-game as he repeatedly ran away from man-coverage or sat between linebackers in zone coverage. This requires recognition of both the defense and the offensive progression in order be open in the right window of time. This play is a good example:

On the 10 yardline the Broncos rely on an NFL staple playcall, the Spot route (explained in digestible detail by Chris Brown). Stokley as the middle receiver in Trips formation runs a hitch and needs to work to get open.

Seconds into the play, Manning is rolling to his right and Stokley sits down between two defenders (LB Thomas Davis and CB Josh Norman). This window is impossibly small especially with Manning reading high to low.

Instead of remaining stagnant in a sea of bodies, Stokley quickly shifts to Peyton’s left to catch the eventual touchdown pass in wide-open space.

We saw in the SuperBowl that Flacco is beginning to show the Roelisburger-esque ability to escape the pocket when pressured and make throws downfield. A smart receiver can be a huge asset when his quarterback is desperately scanning the field for a target.

Up the seam

Stokley’s route tree at this point is fairly limited consisting mostly of crossers, hitches, and curls. Although he does his best work underneath, he can still catch passes up the seam. Stokley still has a bit of speed left (more than I would have thought) and although it isn’t his biggest strength, he pairs it with excellent footwork to set up defenders to fail:

This particular play calls for Stokley to work up the seam and break between the two deep safeties. With man-coverage underneath, Stokley can only get open if he beats his assigned defender over the top first.

CB Nate Clements is aligned as close as he can to Stokley but Clements can only press so far upfield since Stokley is off the line of scrimmage. With an initial break to the inside, Stokley elicits a false step from Clements (Image #1). Clements commits to the inside with his feet and his hips so once Stokley changes direction to the outside, Clements is in no position to trail him.

Stokley is in the seam past his defender but FS Reggie Nelson, having eyed Stokley from the snap, attempts to dislodge the ball immediately after the catch. Stokley takes the hard hit but holds on to the ball to complete the 20 yard reception.

Given Stokley’s age and injury history, it would behoove Flacco and the Ravens to limit this type of contact. Stokley will never be the Anquan Boldin type who catches floating passes after out-leaping defenders but provided that passes are accurate, Stokley can be very productive. Stokley’s reception numbers will be an interesting reflection on Flacco’s accuracy this coming season as many cite the existence of a safety blanket as a weakness of Flacco’s throughout his first five seasons.

As a Blitz Check

An underrated portion of any offensive strategy is adaptation to the defense on the fly. Stokley was repeatedly used as a Hot Read when defenses blitzed Manning last year. That type of QB/WR rapport allows the offense to a) flexibly adapt plays in real time and b) keep hyper-aggressive defenses from blitzing the entire game. This is especially important in a division where all four teams are extremely blitz-happy.

The Browns are showing signs of man coverage underneath. At the very least, it appears that CB Trevin Wade has man coverage on Brandon Stokley.

Wade begins his late motion toward the line of scrimmage and times his blitz expertly.

Although the blitz is eventually picked up, Stokley steps just across the line of scrimmage before stepping back and catching an easy screen pass. Based on the releasing offensive tackle, it appears that this wasn’t a Hot Read but more of a pre-snap blitz-check. Regardless, the result is the same because Manning would have never thrown a screen to a blanketed receiver in the slot.

Assuming the chemistry between Stokley and Flacco can mature into the season, this free agent pick up could pay dividends during the six AFC North games this season.

Overall

Stokley’s play on the field is not a concern of mine but fans should not assume this is a boom of a signing either. All of the stats and potential in the world don’t mean a thing if a player can’t stay healthy. There’s always a reason that teams wait to sign veteran players during the off-season and reliability will be a topic of concern throughout 2013.