On December 15th, the Baltimore Orioles made a somewhat puzzling addition. They signed second baseman Adam Frazier to a one-year deal for eight million dollars. While Frazier was an All-Star in 2021, he produced an unimpressive .612 OPS in 2022 playing for the Seattle Mariners.
Committing real money to a second baseman coming off an underwhelming season was especially odd given the infield depth the Orioles already have between their MLB and AAA rosters.
So, what does signing Frazier mean for the middle infielders we already have? Let’s take a closer look.
Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias is probably getting traded
We can reasonably assume that the Orioles, with what seems like a cartoonishly limited free agent budget this year, do not intend to pay eight million dollars for a free agent who won’t be a regular starter. So, that means either Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urias just got dethroned from their spot in the Opening Day starting lineup.
However, relegating Mateo or Urias to just being utility guys off the bench would seem like an inefficient use of resources for two players who could start elsewhere, which means a trade seems like it’ll be coming soon.
While Mateo’s bat still leaves something to be desired, his elite defense and speed would be appealing to plenty of teams looking for a #9 hitter that can still contribute outside of his OPS.
Mateo’s speed should also be more valuable this year given a pair of rule changes that are expected to benefit speedy runners: larger bases and a limit on pickoff moves. Last year Mateo had an AL-leading 35 stolen bases and it seems reasonable to expect that number to increase thanks to these rule changes.
Meanwhile, Urias provides no major value with his speed, but he is a better hitter than Mateo. Much like Mateo, he also provides defensive value, and this year he joined names like Brooks Robinson and Manny Machado as Orioles third basemen with a Gold Glove.
Based on WAR from Fangraphs, Mateo was the 14th-most valuable shortstop in baseball, while Urias was the 15th-most valuable third baseman last year. This doesn’t sound incredibly impressive, but it does mean that there should be plenty of teams picking up the phone to see what it’d take to upgrade their infield.
It’s hard to predict the return from a trade before you even know what teams are rumored to be interested, however, the return does need to include an actual major league starting pitcher and not just prospects. Trading Mateo and/or Urias for the newest version of Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott as the deal’s headliners would essentially be spending eight million dollars to get more minor league pitching depth. That’s underwhelming at best and insulting at worst.
Turning the 27-year-old Mateo or 28-year-old Urias into either a trade chip or a utility player for a 31-year-old light-hitting second baseman who costs more than either player is certainly a strange move, but it would feel more understandable if they become part of a trade that brings back a pitcher better than a remaining free agent like Michael Wacha.
This isn’t a vote of confidence in Terrin Vavra
A reasonable best-case scenario for Frazier this year is providing about a .280 average and .340 OBP without much pop from the left side and giving the team some versatility as someone who can play second base and both corner outfield spots.
Of course, there’s just one problem with this premise: doesn’t that sound like what Terrin Vavra could do in 2023 for much less money?
Based on this move, it certainly seems like the front office is not very high on the chances that Vavra can put together what they’re hoping to get from Frazier.
Across 40 games and 103 PAs of sporadic playing time after being promoted on July 26, Vavra put together a .258/.340/.337 slashline. That gave him a .677 OPS and an OPS+ of 94, making him a slightly below-average hitter as a rookie. With the caveat that Vavra had a much smaller sample size, he had better numbers than Frazier in several major hitting stats, only doing worse when it came to strikeout rate.
Vavra also had a pretty even split between second base and the outfield, spending 90 innings at second, 70.2 innings in left and picking up another six innings playing right field.
Frazier is considered a good defender and Statcast’s outs above average said he was in the 90th percentile last year, so that is an area where he should be an upgrade on Vavra. However, it’s still worth questioning if eight million dollars for someone who might only be a defensive upgrade on Vavra is a good idea.
After putting together an .886 OPS in AAA last year and a .340 OBP to start his major league career it certainly seemed like Vavra could’ve had a chance to be on the 2023 Opening Day roster as a left-handed utility player, but those chances are certainly going down if Frazier is here.
Norby, Ortiz and Westburg have a new obstacle to getting called up
Another curious aspect of the Frazier signing was that prior to this move, we could’ve reasonably expected three infielders in AAA to get promoted this year: Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg.
The trio of infielders all had an OPS above .800 in the minors last year and all arrived in Norfolk before the end of the season, making each of them seem like someone who could make an impact on the major league team in 2023.
Frazier is expected to start every day and the same will certainly be true of Henderson, so we’re very quickly running out of space for this group of infield prospects to get regular playing time if they’re promoted.
Signing a second baseman is especially discouraging news for Norby, the only player among the trio who didn’t spend a single inning playing shortstop last year. If he starts in the field as an Oriole, the only spot available for him is currently occupied.
As I wrote above, the Frazier signing seems to indicate a trade for Mateo or Urias is coming and it’d also make sense that one of the trio of infield prospects could also get moved, perhaps even in the same deal. The fact that Jackson Holliday is also looming behind them as an infield prospect would further make it seem like at least one of them will be surplus to needs and could be converted into pitching.
There was already uncertainty about how these prospects would fit into the team’s future and Frazier has only increased that uncertainty. It’s anyone’s guess who ends 2023 as a Baltimore Oriole, a Norfolk Tide or a member of a new organization.
BSL Analyst
Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).