On January 26, 2023, the Baltimore Orioles traded away a top-30 prospect for the first time since Mike Elias took charge of the front office. 

They sent Darell Hernaiz, a 21-year-old shortstop, to the Oakland A’s for Cole Irvin, an established major leaguer with 65 career starts and over 400 career innings. The A’s also threw in a minor league pitcher named Kyle Virbitsky, but it’s safe to say that Irvin is the key part of the return. 

The most interesting part of this trade is not Hernaiz or Irvin, but rather what swapping them represents. Irvin becoming an Oriole is the first time we have seen the Elias front office make a move that seems focused on the short term more than the long term. 

Starting with the July 13, 2019 deal that sent Andrew Cashner to the Boston Red Sox for Elio Prado and Noelberth Romero, the Orioles have made numerous deals to send away major leaguers in hopes of improving their farm system’s depth.  

By my count, there have been 14 different trades where the Orioles traded away a major leaguer with regular playing time for prospects. They’ve moved starting pitchers like Cashner and Dylan Bundy, sent multiple closers to a new team and said farewell to productive hitters like Jose Iglesias and Trey Mancini.  

Now, after years of selling, this is the first time we’ve seen the Elias front office become buyers. 

While the trade does represent a change in direction for the front office, no one is going to mistake it for some recent blockbusters. This is not the Seattle Mariners giving up Noelvi Marte for Luis Castillo and it certainly won’t get confused with the package the San Diego Padres gave up for Juan Soto.  

Irvin has been a slightly below-average starting pitcher his last two seasons based on ERA+, with a rather underwhelming K/9 to boot. He pitches to contact, avoids walks and provides the Orioles with a left-handed starter with better control than DL Hall and no concerns over Tommy John like John Means.  

Meanwhile, Hernaiz seemed incredibly unlikely to ever make the majors as an Oriole due to the several infield prospects ranked higher than him in the system. He ended 2022 with a cup of coffee in AA, while prospects like Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg ended the year in AAA.  

Turning a single second-tier prospect into an established major leaguer doesn’t hurt, but it’s also not exactly going to move the needle. Irvin could help this team’s floor, but it’s hard to see any outcome where he raises the ceiling.    

Now that we’ve established that the Orioles aren’t afraid of trading away a prospect for a major leaguer, it means it’s time to wonder if and when they’d move a prospect better than Hernaiz for a major leaguer better than Irvin. 

Based on what we’ve seen this offseason, the Orioles stand a better chance at acquiring a real talent through a trade rather than free agency. Free agents like Adam Frazier and Kyle Gibson could offer modest upgrades, but they’re ultimately just cheap short-term options who won’t be difference makers on the roster.  

The Orioles don’t seem to be in a position where they can outbid other teams with money, but they’d certainly have the chance to outbid teams with the prospects they can offer in a trade. They have eight prospects in MLB.com’s top 100 and another two prospects outside the top 100 still considered top ten prospects at their position.  

Even if we assume that Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez and Jackson Holliday are untouchable, that still leaves seven prospects that are in the top 100 overall and/or the top ten at their position.  

Does that mean the Orioles should trade all seven of them? Probably not, but it does mean they have the depth to be more ambitious than just flipping Hernaiz for Irvin.  

It currently seems impossible that the Orioles will ever acquire an elite pitcher through free agency and at this point, I’m not even sure if a second-tier starter like Chris Bassitt will be a realistic option going forward. If that’s the case, they need to explore trades as seemingly the only way they’ll ever get a pitcher better than Gibson. 

Six years of an ace like Carlos Rodon might be a fantasy, but 1.5 years of an ace in exchange for giving up someone like Colton Cowser and/or Jordan Westburg is much more plausible.  

However, that’s only possible if the front office is willing to be aggressive in trading their prospects. Of course, giving up prospects for 1.5 years of a star player is always risky, but it probably has a better chance of working out than trying to win the division with a free agent haul of Frazier and Gibson. 

At this point, we have no way of knowing if the front office is willing to part with any top-100 prospects in a trade, but this year’s trade deadline could provide valuable clarity on the matter. If the Orioles are contending and someone like Luis Castillo is on the market, we’ll learn much more about the front office if they’re a rumored suitor for that kind of pitching upgrade.   

Regardless of how much the front office wants to trade any top 100 prospects, this offseason has made one thing pretty clear: a trade has a much greater chance to land a star pitcher in Baltimore than free agency. 

Hernaiz for Irvin was the first step in the front office changing its priorities. Now, it’s time to see if the second step will ever include trading better prospects than Hernaiz for better major leaguers than Irvin. 

Rose Katz
Rose Katz

BSL Analyst

Rose Katz is a recent graduate of the University of Maryland’s journalism school, where she worked for The Diamondback as the online managing editor and a sports blogger. As a student, she spent almost all of her time on campus in The Diamondback’s newsroom or at Xfinity Center, Ludwig Field and Maryland Stadium. Rose gained intern experience with the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN).

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