What Folks Are Saying

Over the last few days, I got together with several scouts and analysts to hear the buzz around the water cooler. What are folks saying about the Baltimore Orioles? I also hopped on the horn with an O’s director to get the inside scoop. We’ll let him set the stage. I’ll offer a little slant or background info after each comment.

Matt Blood, Director of Player Development – Baltimore Orioles

On prospects impressing in camp: The top prospects are playing like that – they’ve improved and matured. Guys like Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Colton Cowser, and Coby Mayo. They’re moving in the right direction.

More specifically about Henderson and Westburg: They’re continuing to swing at the right pitches, improving their contact skills without trading off their power. They’re progressing as hitters. Henderson’s swing and decisions have really improved.

On Kyle Bradish and D.L. Hall: Bradish looks like a good starter. He has to harness his stuff a little more consistently. He should be an effective rotation arm and fun to watch. We’re going to manage [Hall] carefully. We’re working on this as a group to do the right thing about getting him experience and workload without overdoing it.

A couple sleeper pitchers who could contribute this year: Nick Vespi has real weapons including a plus breaking ball. He’s been aggressive this spring. Felix Bautista is electric. He hits 100-mph and is a real asset when throwing strikes.

My slant: We probably won’t see any of Henderson, Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, or Mayo in the Majors in 2022. The first three do have brief Double-A experience so it’s possible they play their way up. Ortiz is the least well-known of that quintet. External evaluators like the folks at FanGraphs consider him a plus defender at multiple positions with some questions regarding his power being sufficient to support a starting role. That evaluation took place prior to Spring Training so it would seem Ortiz has taken a step forward.

Henderson and Westburg are two guys who interest me because they have good swing-and-miss rates but relatively poor strikeout rates. Better swing decisions could see them surge through the upper-minors.

Vespi, a 26-year-old left-handed reliever, is very much off the radar – there is little said about him on the internet. He pitched well at Double-A last season before running afoul of home runs in Triple-A. His strikeout and swinging strike rates were impressive at both levels. Bautista is a huge 26-year-old right-handed reliever who has battled command issues in the past. Encouragingly, he recorded a 2.45 ERA with 12.27 K/9 and 4.42 BB/9 in 18.1 Triple-A innings last season. His walk rate at lower levels was over 6.00 BB/9, though he was practically unhittable at those stops.

Colton Cowser, who Blood mentioned above as impressing this spring, was the subject of Eric Cross’s interest.

Eric Cross, Lead Writer, FanTrax

After Cowser excelled for Sam Houston State in his final collegiate season, there were some questions surrounding whether or not his performance was inflated by the quality of opponents he faced that season. Personally, I’m completely ignoring those detractors.

Cowser is a plus hitter with exceptional contact skills, pitch recognition, and zone awareness. With his profile and hitter-friendly Camden Yards awaiting him down the road, Cowser could easily eclipse .280 annually as a top or middle of the order bat. Some may look at his profile with that hit tool and above average speed, and immediately think he’s best served in the number one or number two spot in the lineup. Yes, he would fit very well in either of those two spots, but Cowser could easily be a middle of the order contributor as well as his power is often undervalued and could be plus down the road.

Defensively, Cowser plays a serviceable center field with solid range but will likely move over to a corner due to the presence of Cedric Mullins. Overall, Cowser has the skills to develop into an All-Star caliber outfielder that Baltimore fans will come to love very quickly.

My Slant/Background: Cowser thrived in the complex last season then acquitted himself well in short-season ball, hitting .347/.476/.429 with one home run, four steals, and more walks than strikeouts in 124 plate appearances. As a college draftee, he’s meant to thrash these levels of competition. This season will be the real test.

Meanwhile, Geoff Pontes added another name to the pitching sleeper list. However, don’t expect to see this guy in Baltimore in 2022.

Geoff Pontes, Prospect Writer – Baseball America

Jean Pinto made nine appearances for the Shorebirds—including seven starts—and performed admirably, pitching to a 2.51 ERA with a 31.1% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and an opponent batting average of .178. While his low-90s fastball is a fringe-average offering his slider is among the best in the minors. It’s a 3000-rpm hammer with mid-80s velocity. A rare combination on a sweeping breaking ball, batters were befuddled by the pitch in 2021 whiffing over 40% of the time.

My Slant/Background: Acquired in the Jose Iglesias trade, the 2022 campaign will also be Pinto’s first test in full-season ball. He’s of a profile that could quickly chew through the minors if he converts to relief. His velocity might tick up in relief too.

I set Ben Clemens the task of finding a positive on the Major League roster.

Ben Clemens, Writer – FanGraphs

I think that Anthony Santander has an All-Star season in him. If you look at what’s holding him back, it boils down to aggression, but it’s not quite the mindless aggression you’d expect. He does alright on tough secondary pitches around the zone – basically a league average swing rate and better than average contact. His biggest downfall is waving at stuff that’s farther from the zone and fastballs on the border. I’m not saying he’s a lock to figure it out, but give me that profile over the guys who are getting overmatched in the zone on fastballs and by breaking stuff on the corners every day. He has great top-end power; I think given that, he’s the kind of guy where a slight eye adjustment will pay dividends in excess of what you’d expect for a guy who seems chase-happy at the surface level.

It’s not like it’s easy to swing at fewer pitches, but I like players who could benefit from a simple approach change — swing less overall, and let his okay pitch recognition around the edges do work. The plan of beating him up in the zone with fastballs is worrisome of course, but he doesn’t need to turn into Joey Votto to be valuable.

My Slant/Background: This is a big season for the 27-year-old switch-hitter. In parts of five campaigns, he’s yet to exceed 1 WAR in a season – largely due to the aforementioned aggression. He’s also an indifferent fielder. His best season was the shortened 2020 campaign; 0.9 WAR and a .261/.315/.575 line in just 165 plate appearances. As Ben mentioned, Santander has above average exit velocities. His swing also has a ton of loft which tends to lead to lower batting averages and more home runs. Since he mostly bats from the left side, he’s only partly affected by the new left field dimensions at Camden Yards.

Meanwhile, Matt Eddy offered a few miscellaneous thoughts about the organization as a whole.

Matt Eddy, Executive Editor – Baseball America

The org had to build an international dept from scratch. Maybe this is the year they begin to see results? Under Duquette and Ferreira they would only focus on Cuban players here and there – and not the consensus ones.

I can’t recall ever seeing such a true replacement level team, where so many regular players are low-stakes or free pickups: Santander, Urias, Odor, Gutierrez, Mateo. The Elias front office have been waiver wire warriors; which makes sense from the perspective that these are discarded 40-man players who have been vetted at least that much by other orgs.

The last time I talked with farm director Matt Blood—former BA draft writer—he mentioned an org emphasis on maximizing value of players drafted after the first round. You can see this approach with the likes of Henderson, Westburg, Mayo, et al. They focus a larger share of resources on picks after the first round than any club I would guess. I wonder if this could be studied via prospect rankings? Does BAL have more non-first-round presence on lists?

The early-2010s O’s were able to capitalize on the rare and concurrent down periods of BOS and NYY (by historical standards). Will the Elias crew be so fortunate?

My Slant/Background: The O’s past refusal to participate in the international talent game is a big reason why they’re where they are now. That said, what’s done is done. The key is seeking the right solutions for a better future, and the Elias front office is doing so. That absolutely includes being “waiver wire warriors.” The club has a window to find discounted supplemental talent in the year or two before the current wave of prospects begins to clog the pathways for less-hyped players. If they can hit on a Santander or Ramon Urias or Jorge Mateo, then it makes the rebuild that much easier. Even a guy like Santander, who probably won’t be a part of the next winning Orioles roster, could at least fetch prospects who do participate down the line.

I took a look at the Orioles Top 10 prospects. With the exceptions of Bradish (4th-round, drafted prior to the Elias hire) and Mayo (4th-round, 2020), the remaining players were either taken in the first or second rounds. Kyle Stowers is the latest of those at pick 71 overall in the 2019 draft. Heston Kjerstad was picked second overall, although he’s universally viewed as a reach designed to fit more talent into the pipeline.

There’s a certain fragility to the non-Tampa Bay rosters in the AL East. And the Rays could always shoot themselves in the foot with their frugality. The Orioles ability to catch up will depend in part on uncovering good pitchers who stay healthy but also on the willingness of the Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays to spend their way through problems as they arise. Matt Eddy and I agree – the future is bright for hitters in Baltimore.