What I believe needs to occur to compete with NY in 2011

In the 2009 Major League Baseball season, the New York Yankees won their 27th World Championship, while the Baltimore Orioles finished 39 games behind the Bronx Bombers in the American League East.

What is going to have to occur to allow the O’s to compete with the Yankees by 2011?

To answer this, I think you first have to look at the rosters as how they could exist during 2010.

Baltimore
Roberts 2nd
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Wieters C
Reimold LF
Scott DH
Snyder 1st
Bell 3rd
Izturis SS

Wigginton, Moeller, Pie, and one of Aubrey / Montanez / Andino

Matusz, Tillman, Bergesen, Guthrie, Arrieta

Uehara
Johnson
Ray
Patton / Waters / Other lefty
Mickolio
Berken
Hernandez

New York
Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1st
Rodriguez 3rd
Posada C
Cano 2nd
Swisher RF
Nady DH
Cabrera CF

Molina, Hinske, Gardner, Hariston Jr.

Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain

Rivera
Hughes
Coke
Marte
Aceves
Bruney
Robertson

To compete with New York in 2011, here is what I believe needs to occur:

1) Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta have to be legitimate 1 – 3 starters, providing production similar to what NY received from Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte in 2009.

The Yankee trio combined for 631.2 innings this year, with 46 wins. They allowed 583 hits, 240 walks, with 540 k’s.

My 2010 goals for the aforementioned Baltimore trio will be roughly 65-70% of that production. If that occurs, the O’s group will be well paced to provide 2011 numbers similar to what NY received this season.

1a) Similarly, you will see regression (or departure) from the Yankees starters. In 2011, Sabathia will be in the 3rd year of his 7 year $161 million-dollar contract. Sabathia will turn 31 in 2011. After another 200 innings in 2010, he will have roughly 2,100 Major League innings on his arm. I think the 300 lbs he carries on his frame, will eventually cause injuries to his knees.

Consider me as one who believes Brian Matusz will be just as good as CC Sabathia in 2011. If I am wrong, it is hard to craft a scenario where the O’s will be able to compete.

In his first-year in NY, Burnett pitched 200+ innings for the second-consecutive year. In 2011, he will be in the 3rd year of his 5 year $82.5M deal with the Yankees. Burnett allowed less than a hit per inning-pitched, had 195 k’s, and had a .729 OPS against. He also turns 33 on January 3rd.

In 2011, I expect that I would prefer to have the 23 year-old Chris Tillman, in his 3rd Major League season, vs. a 34 year-old Burnett.

37 year-old Andy Pettitte just went through a post-season where he pitched the clinching games of the Division, Championship, and World Series. Most likely he will be retired by 2011. If he is pitching, he figures to be a shell of himself. Certainly the Yankees will have financial ability to obtain a 3rd starter with pedigree, but good-luck replacing Pettitte’s moxie.

A big thing to watch for the Yankees in 2010 is what production they get out of Chein-Mang Wang. This was just a lost, horrible year for Wang. He has won 19 games twice, but just 9 over the past two-seasons combined.

2) The core position talent of the O’s – Markakis, Wieters, Jones – will have to provide production similar to the core position talent of the Yankees – Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Jeter.

Markakis turns 26 on November 17th. Meaning he will be 27 all of the 2011 season.
Jones turned 24 on August 1st. Meaning he will be 26 at the end of the 2011 season.
Wieters 23 on May 31st. Meaning he will be 25 at the end of 2011 season.

Teixeria will be 31 in April 2011.
Rodriguez will be 36 in July 2011.
Jeter will be 37 in June 2011.

The O’s core will still be reaching their prime, while the Yankees core will be that much further removed from theirs. We have seen the best of the Yankees players, there is still room for growth of the O’s.

I anticipate each of those NY players will still be among the best in baseball. I do not see any of them falling off a cliff during the 2011 season. I do think it is reasonable to believe the O’s core will be able to approximate their production.

3) The secondary players – Roberts, Reimold, Scott, Snyder, Bell, Pie, Izturis/SS – have to meet or exceed the production NY gets out of their secondary players such as Cano, Damon /LF, Cabrera, Posada / C, Swisher / RF, Nady / DH.

Cano will probably be regularly out producing Roberts at that point, but that does not mean Roberts will be unproductive.

If NY still has Damon in LF in 2010, I think they lose head-to-head vs. Reimold. In 2011 that would certainly be the case.

I look at Scott / Swisher / Nady as basically equal players, and imagine they would continue to produce near their current levels.

I like the chances for the Scott, Snyder, Bell trio to meet or exceed the production of the Swisher, Nady, Posada trio in 2011. It bears noting that Nady is a Free Agent this off-season, and that Posada will be 40 years-old, and in the last year of his contract in 2011.

Izturis is a FA after the 2010 season, and his defensive skills only help so much, when you factor in his on-base% is under .300. If the O’s can improve at SS between now and 2011, that will put the O’s offense on closer overall footing with New York.

4) When I project out, and think about the O’s ability to compete with NY in 2011; what I think is hardest to answer, is where the two teams will be with their respective Closers.

Rivera is a FA after the 2010 season, but if he chooses to still play, you have to figure it will be in NY. If the Yankees do not have him dominating 70 innings, and 40 saves a year; that will have a large impact on that franchise. If he is not back, they will have $15M to go replace him with the best available option, or go with Chamberlain, or Hughes.

If Rivera is replaced in NY, the new closer will A) Be replacing a legend, and B) Have to deal with the pressure that exists in pitching in NY.

Even if Rivera is back, Father Time strikes for everyone. Rivera will be 41 all of the 2011 season. He can not keep up this pace forever, right?

In 2010, the O’s figure to at-least initially use Uehara as the closer. He is a FA after the 2010 season, and it is way to early to determine if he will back for 2011. Also, even though he closed in Japan with success, and I think will help the O’s in 2010, it is a question mark. Projecting what you would get from Uehara in 2011 as a 36 year-old is just not answerable at this time.

What the O’s do in 2010 with their bullpen, will have a huge impact on their ability to compete with NY in 2011. With an improved 2010 rotation, what I want to see out of the O’s, is a corresponding improved bullpen with Johnson, Ray, Mickolio, Albers, Berken, and Hernandez.

I am not sure where the O’s will be at closer in 2011 (my guess would be either Mickolio or Hernandez), but to compete with the Yanks that year; there will have to be significant growth from that group above this coming season.

A very reasonable reply would be, “With the way they sign FA’s and trade, I just don’t see how you can make any type of prediction as to what the Yankees will look like in 2011.”

I think that is a fair point to make.

My response would be that with whatever is ‘unknown’, they are unlikely to improve upon what they had in 2009.

The Yankees won 103 games, and the World Series. It is hard for me to see them improving on the areas where there is question in their roster. So I think using their 2009 production as the base-line, gives a good idea of what to expect.