What if the Ravens season ends tomorrow?

I believe the Baltimore Ravens will beat the Oakland Raiders tomorrow and advance to the AFC Playoffs. However, where will the Ravens be as a franchise, if that does not occur?

First, and foremost the City would be figuratively on-fire tomorrow night. Finishing one game from the Super Bowl last season, sent expectations extremely high entering 2009. At a minimum, the expectation was to return to the playoffs. For a week everyone in Baltimore has spent time stating, “All we have to do is beat Oakland. Win, and we are in.” If the Ravens go out West and lose, the failure of meeting minimum expectations might be the impetus of change.

It is fair to speculate on how the Ravens could be impacted if there is not a Salary Cap in place for 2010, but for now I just want to look at the roster based on the existing system.

Here is a unit-by-unit breakdown:

Quaterback: Flacco, Smith, Beck

Snap-judgement:
Smith is a 2010 restricted Free Agent, and Beck is signed only through this season. Even before his Agent’s recent Twitter message, it was rather apparent that Smith would like to depart for the opportunity to start elsewhere. He is not going to get the chance to ever start in-front of Flacco, so he will not be back. I would imagine that Beck will return, however he last received in-game snaps during the 2007 season. Will Baltimore be scared to trust the backup duties to a player that has not seen the field in two seasons?

The bottom-line is that with each passing year this team will continue to be more of Flacco’s team. He is going to finish his sophomore season have started all 32 regular-season games of his career. He is going to be near 4,000 passing yards for the season, with a passer-rating approaching 90%. Depending on the weapons surrounding him, Flacco will go into his 3rd season with increasing expectations.

Running-back & Fullback: Rice, McGahee, Parmalee, and McClain

Snap-judgement:
Rice is signed through just the 2011 season. I will be rather surprised if Ozzie Newsome does not attempt to extend the Ravens Team MVP this winter.

McGahee has seen his rushing attempts decrease from 294, to 170, to 93 during his 3 years in Baltimore. He remains signed through the 2013 season. Rotoworld.com shows his remaining cap charges (inclusive of his roster bonus) as the following: $6.35 million (2010), $8.75 million (2011), $9.25 million (2012), $7.5 million (2013). Despite his 11 TD’s this year, you have to believe the Ravens will take whatever financial hit necessary to remove his contract.

Parmalee greatly increased his value to the team with his return efforts this past week. If McGahee does not return, Parmalee might have the chance to earn some additional carriers. Or it is possible that Baltimore would sign or draft a backup RB they would have more comfort in, if Rice were to go down to injury.

I felt good for McClain earning a Pro Bowl birth. You know it had to be personally hard for McClain to see his carries reduced from 232 last-year, to 45 this season. Getting a Pro Bowl nomination for his lead-blocking is a credit to him for putting the team first. He will be a Restricted Free Agent, meaning he can accept an offer from a new team, and the Ravens will have one week to match & retain; or lose & receive draft-picks.

To me, retaining McClain has to be one of the lead priorities.

Wide Receiver: Mason, Clayton, Williams, Washington, Harper

Snap-judgement:
Mason 2010 Free Agent.
Clayton 2010 Free Agent.
Williams 2010 Free Agent.
Washington 2010 Free Agent.

This might not be an elite core, but it would be a mistake to think you can easily say good-bye to all 4. If you want Flacco to take another step in his 3rd-season, you can not ask him to build completely new relationships with 4 WR’s.

Mason will turn 36 in a couple of weeks. As last Summer showed, he may or may not have the desire to even return. His game stats are basically a replication of last year, and I’m sure he would produce again next-season. Still, all players say playing the games is the easy part. The hard part is willing the body to continue to train at the level necessary to survive another season. I would want to immediately determin if Mason wants to return, and is willing to sign for a single season. If Mason insists on several guaranteed years, and up-front money, I look for the Ravens to say good-bye. I tend to think he will come-back on a one year deal, but I think that decision probably takes awhile.

Clayton will end 2009-10 with less overall receptions for the fourth consecutive season, unless he has 8 or more grabs tomorrow. After ending the 2008 season with 17 yards per reception, he has seen that decrease to 14.3 in 2009. Still, I think there are reasons to bring him back. He will be fairly cheap, he knows the system, and he is still just 27. Additionally, while he has regularly dealt with hamstring issues, he did play in all 48 games during the 2006-2008 seasons. He might never run routes with the precision of Mason, but if the team said good-bye to Mason, they could attempt to utilize Clayton in a similar manner. If Mason returns, I think it is unlikely that Clayton comes back.

I am pretty sure that Demetrius Williams is going to get a chance to return. Being chained to the doghouse for most of 2009, coupled with his injuries in previous seasons, severely limits his value on the open market. His use the last couple of weeks, and the coaching staff talking about him working hard, will make it attractive to Baltimore to resign him. Getting a receiver that will financially cost you little, that has familiarity with the system and Flacco, and has the upside of Williams is a no-brainer.

After 20 catches the previous 3 seasons, I surely did not see Washington catching 32 balls this year. More power to you, if you did. When you look at his numbers, the number that means the most is that of his 32 receptions, 26 are for 1st-down. Having Baltimore provided an opportunity for him to make plays in the passing-game, you would think he would be interested in returning.

My best guess is that the Ravens find a way to bring back Mason, Williams, and Washington; and look to add a WR in Free Agency (Malcom Floyd?).

Tight-Ends: Heap, Smith, Jones, Drew

Snap-judgement:
An awful lot of people believe Heap will not return. I am not one of them. First off, he is not a Free Agent until 2012. Why would the Ravens attempt to buy out the contract of Heap? He has 51 receptions, and 6 TD’s. His 4 TD’s these last two weeks are signs of an improving playing relationship with Flacco. Flacco has had problems working the middle of the field. You are going to have him go into his 3rd season, with a new TE? Just not going to happen.

LJ Smith is a Free Agent. Anyone that thinks it would be easy to replace Heap, should take a look at Smith. Obviously Smith had injuries all season which impacted him. However, in addition to those injuries, he had trouble picking up the offense despite being in the league for 6 previous years. If I were the Ravens brain-trust, I would attempt to resign him. Consider this year a wash, and hope for improvement in Year 2. Run the two TE sets you envisioned using this season.

Drew is going to have turn some heads in the off-season to prevent Baltimore from adding another TE in the draft with one of their Top 3 selections.

Offensive-Line: Gaither, Grubbs, Birk, Yanda, Oher (Cousins, Chester, Hale, Terry).

Snap-judgement:
Gaither is a Restricted Free Agent. It is hard for me to envision the draft-picks coming back as more valuable than Gaither. As long as the money does not become insane, his return should happen. If the money is astronomical, obviously you have the ability to shift Oher to LT on a permanent basis. If you wanted to move Oher to LT anyway, and have reservations about paying big-money for Gaither at RT, I guess that also has to be considered. I would imagine Flacco will lobby hard to keep those twin 23 year-old Tackles together.

Grubbs, and Birk are Free Agents after 2011. Signing, or drafting a Center to develop behind Birk is likely to be accomplished this off-season.

Right Guard is a bit of an issue as Yanda is a Restricted Free Agent, and Chester is a true Free Agent. Would imagine that one of the two returns.

Adam Terry is another Free Agent. Missed all of this season, but maybe he returns as depth next-year. For a team that likes using that unbalanced line, he could be valuable.

Cousins is fine for depth, but it is hard to imagine him having to regularly start for the team at RG, or RT.

Defensive Line: Edwards, Gregg, Ngata, Pryce, Talavou, Bannan, McKinney

Snap-judgement:
Edwards worked himself into the starting line-up this year, after missing all of the 2008 season. He has played in all 15 games, and has been solid against the run with 46 tackles. He also has just 1 sack. He turns just 29 next May, so should have some mileage left on his tires. Do you attempt to resign him?

McKinney unfortunately ended this season on Injured Reserve, but the Ravens had other quality depth existing with Talavou, and Bannan. Both Talavou, and Bannan are Free Agents, and it is hard to see both returning. One or both is likely to go somewhere, and possibly even start.

Earlier in the season I would have thought it was possible the Ravens would have bought out Gregg going into next year. I no longer think that will happen. His play improved during the second-half, as he worked himself back from the injury. With sacks the last two weeks, he is finishing strong and probably ensuring himself of returning.

Ngata dealt with nagging injuries all season but still secured his 1st Pro Bowl birth. He should be an anchor on the line for years to come. I would prefer to see him extended, but it will be interesting to see if the Ravens just let his contract play-out after 2010, with the expectation of using the Franchise tag on him.

I was pretty tough on Pryce to start the year, as I thought he was running on fumes. I think playing in reserve of Edwards has helped him. Pryce had 6.5 sacks combined during his previous 21 games coming into this season, and has 6.5 sacks after 15 games this year. He is signed through 2010, and I would expect him back.

Linebacker: Johnson, Lewis, Gooden, Suggs, Barnes, McClain, Ellerbe, Kruger, Ayanbadejo

Snap-judgement:
Obviously a big 2009 for Johnson, with his 6 sacks and 2 interceptions. A Free Agent in 2012, he will return.

Lewis might not be the player he once was, but he is still a Pro Bowl talent. He came into training camp this year, at a lighter weight to be able to run more sideline to sideline. I think it did help with speed, but I think at times he missed tackles he previously made. On the other-hand Sproles, and Ocho-Cinco would like to remind me of the hits Lewis dished out on them this year.

Gooden has played in 12 of the Ravens 15 games, and gives the LB core fresh-legs when he plays. However, he has zero sacks, zero picks, and only 47 tackles. After missing the last two weeks, you wonder if the Ravens now consider Ellerbe the defacto starter. It seems that Lewis has alluded to both Gooden, and Ellerbe free-lancing a bit too much. Gooden is a Restricted Free Agent after 2010. If he wants a payday, he is going to need to perform at a much higher level next year. Perhaps I am wrong, but I believe Ellerbe is an unrestricted Free Agent, after signing with the Ravens as an undrafted Free Agent.

McClain is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent. Barnes is a Restricted Free Agent. Barnes was another player in the doghouse, but now has 2 sacks in the last 3 weeks. His speed off the edge is a weapon. For a team that had trouble rushing the QB, it would be hard to see him leave.

Ayanbadejo could have a job because of his ability to help on Special Teams, or he could be cut because of the overall depth at LB.

It will be interesting to see what weight Kruger comes in at next year. His interception showed his athleticism. I think the Ravens need to find ways to have Suggs, Kruger, and Barnes on the field at the same-time on passing downs.

Suggs missed sometime for the first time in his career this year. The Ravens have a lot of money invested in him, and will have to protect that investment. While his overall abilities as a LB have improved, his primary worth is rushing the QB. 3.5 sacks are not going to cut it. I would like to see the Ravens just turn him loose with the goal of putting QB’s in the grass.

Secondary: Webb, Landry, Reed, Foxworth, Washington, Zbikowski, Carr, Nakamura, Walker

Snap-judgement:
Webb should be able to return next year, but it will still be in question at the draft. That alone probably has the Ravens spending a high-draft pick on another CB.

Foxworth might not be elite, but he is a far better CB than people give him credit for. Ok, he lacks the size to help against the run, or against bigger, physical wideouts; he has good speed and cover-skills.

Landry has had a decent season with 4 picks. I believe both Zbikowski and Nakamura are considered more of Strong Safeties vs Free Safeties. As such, I could see Landry not returning, and Zbikowski inheriting the starters position there.

Carr will be back. Walker is a Free Agent, and just on Public Relations alone will probably not return. I think the team should make an effort to resign Free Agent Fabian Washington. He would be a superior Nickleback, with the ability to start if needed.

Obviously the key to the Secondary (and maybe the defense as a whole?) will be what happens with Reed. Reed is signed for the next several seasons, so there is no issue there. The only question is his health, and if he wants to return. I see some people suggesting maybe the Ravens would consider trading him. I do not see it. He is a year removed from a 9 interception season.

The fact that he sought out a second-opinion on his hip, shows that a) He was concerned, and b) Still wants to play. If you were ready to shut it down and retire, you would not be seeking additional opinions. I think he clearly received good news with the second-opinion, and I think he will return.

Summary / Key Priorities / Questions:

1) The resigning of Gaither.
2) Does Reed want to return?
3) The extending of Ngata.
4) The extending of Rice.
5) The resigning of McClain.
5a) Does the team eat McGahee’s contract?
6) Does Mason want to return? Is he willing to sign a 1 year deal?
6a) Clayton, Williams, Washington? Will Baltimore pursue a FA WR?
7) What happens at RG?
8) Do the Ravens attempt to resign Edwards?