In my September/October preview I posted August 30th, I called for the O’s to finish 2009 with a 68-94 record. Not far off the 72 wins I predicted for the O’s in March.
Since then, it has been formally communicated that Chris Tillman, and Brian Matusz will likely not be given the opportunity to finish out the season. Adam Jones has suffered an injury that will likely end his season.
So, it is possible that the O’s finish this year with even less than 68 wins.
Still, that has done little to dampen my enthusiasm for the 2010 season, and what I definitively believe will be the end of the O’s consecutive losing-seasons.
As we have stated numerous times, let us go over what we know. We know that the prime-years for position players are their age 27-28 seasons. We know that Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold, and Pie have not yet reached their prime, and figure to produce more next year; than they have produced this year.
We should be able to comfortably state that Roberts, and Scott figure to equate their 2009 production.
We know that in 2009, that the O’s had 45+ starts from Hendrickson, Eaton, Berken, and Hill; and that equals 27% of the overall starts.
We know that the 2010 rotation figures to be comprised of Guthrie, Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman, and Hernandez to start next year; and likely include Arrieta sooner than later. At a minimum, you can comfortably state you will get better starting-pitching in 2010, than the aforementioned four-pitchers provided in 2009.
We know that there will not be an existing rotation slot for Berken to start the year, and likely will not be a slot existing for Hernandez, once Arrieta is promoted. We have seen enough out of Berken, and Hernandez this year (in-addition to their Minor League resumes) to know that they can greatly aid the bullpen.
We know that Uehera will be in the bullpen, if he has not been moved. We know that he has impeccable control, and exceeded in the bullpen in Japan. We know that he regularly tired out when he reached the 5th and 6th inning this year, but was typically effective during the 1st-4th innings of his starts. There is no reason he can not excel out of the bullpen in 2010.
We know that the O’s got minimal-production out of Mora, and Huff in 2009. I anticipate that Wigginton, and Scott will be the O’s 2010 Opening Day corner-infielders, and will likely be replaced by Bell, and Snyder by mid-June. We know that based on how limited the production was out of Mora, and Huff; that meeting or exceeding their production will not be difficult. If you equal their numbers, you have not improved, but you have not regressed.
2009 will be looked at as a failure by a lot of people, but there were a lot of positives accomplished this season.
You were able to gain experience for numerous players that figure to improve, and comprise the future core of this franchise. At the end of the day, you either believe in the talents of players like Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Roberts, Tillman, and Matusz – or you do not.
I believe there is a core to move forward with. I believe that if Tampa can go from 66 wins in 2007 to 97 wins in 2008, that the O’s can go from 68 wins in 2009 to 81-85 wins in 2010.
Wins and losses mattered little this year, but will matter in 2010, if you want to compete in 2011.
The talent is here existing, to expect this team to make a significant improvement.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.