With a number of quality arms on the way, and the O’s wanting to improve their positional core there has been some talk from Oriole fans of trading Guthrie at the 7/31 Non-Waiver Deadline.
I think there are a number of reasons why you should not do that, but none greater than the fact that I believe you would be trading him at a low.
Guthrie went into the July 2nd start, having allowed 3er or fewer in 6 of his last 7 starts, but has regressed the last-two.
Guthrie has started 18 games in 2009:
7/7: 2.1 innings, 2 hits, 3 er, 4 bb’s, 0 k’s
7/2: 7 innings, 9 hits, 5 er, 2 bb’s, 5 k’s
6/27: 5 innings, 5 hits, 3 er, 3 bb’s, 2 k’s
6/21: 7 innings 3 hits, 1 er, 2 bb’s, 4 k’s
6/16: 6.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 er, 2 bb’s, 4 k’s
6/10: 6 innings, 6 hits, 3 er, 0 bb’s, 2 k’s
6/5: 0.2 innings, 7 hits, 6 er, 0 bb’s, 0 k’s
5/30: 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 er, 1 bb, 10 k’s
5/25: 7 innings, 7 hits, 1 er, 1 bb, 4 k’s
5/20: 7 innings, 5 hits, 5 er, 3 bb’s, 2 k’s
5/14: 5 innings, 6 hits, 4 er, 2 bb’s, 2 k’s
5/8: 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 er, 2 bb’s, 8 k’s
5/3: 8 innings, 4 hits, 4 er, 1 bb, 3 k’s
4/27: 5 innings, 6 hits, 3 er, 1 bb, 4 k’s
4/22: 6 innings, 8 hits, 5 er, 3 bb’s, 2 k’s
4/17: 4.2 innings, 8 hits, 5 er, 4 bb’s, 5 k’s
4/11: 6 innings, 5 hits, 0 er, 0 bb’s, 2 k’s
4/6: 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 er, 3 bb’s, 3 k’s
2009 – 101 IP, 110 hits, 62 k’s, 34 walks, 20 homers, 834 OPS, 0.65 G/F
In his 75 career starts as an Oriole, Guthrie has had:
0 earned runs allowed – 3 times
1 earned run allowed – 19 times
2 earned runs allowed – 13 times
3 earned runs allowed – 19 times
4 earned runs allowed – 8 times
5 earned runs allowed – 10 times
6 earned runs allowed – 2 times
7 earned runs allowed – 1 time
2007 – 175.1 IP, 165 hits, 123 k’s, 47 walks, 23 homers, 711 OPS, 0.78G/F
2008 – 190.2 IP, 176 hits, 120 k’s, 58 walks, 24 homers, 693 OPS, 0.81G/F
Guthrie is Arbitration eligible in 2010, and not eligible for FreeAgency until 2013… I believe that based on that, the O’s should keep him in an Oriole uniform at-least until the young arms have come-up to the Majors and shown some consistency. If he has a better 1st-half in 2010, you might be in a better position to trade him if desired.
The flip-side of that, is I do not have a problem with the Orioles listening to offers for Guthrie. I do not have a problem with the O’s actively seeking offers either. If someone is willing to provide apiece now that has a chance to be a long-term option at SS, or 3rd… you have to listen to the offer.
Guthrie turned 30 April 8th… making him a bit older than the rest ofthe core you are moving forward with, but not too old to be a part of the next winning O’s team. Personally, he is my favorite Oriole, and I hope he can stay in the O’s uniform a bit longer.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.