Now that Garrett Atkins has been non-tendered (offered a contract by the arbitration deadline), you have to wonder how hard the O’s will pursue Atkins for 3rd base in 2010.
Atkins is coming off of a horrible 2009 season, where he posted a .650 OPS, with a .228 batting average, 9 homers, and 48 rbi.
To me, due to his struggles of last-season; he is an attractive option for Baltimore. With Josh Bell waiting in the wings, you are not going to sign a player for multi-years ahead of him. In-turn, Atkins is going to have a hard time finding a multi-year deal for the money he probably believes his production dictates. That would have Atkins looking for a one-year deal somewhere, where he would be motivated to produce and increase his value.
In the last 3 seasons, Atkins has accomplished the following:
810 at-bats on the road, with a .696 OPS. This included 32 homers, 32 doubles.
760 at-bats at home, with a .868 OPS. This included 23 homers, and 47 doubles.
453 at-bats vs Left-handed Pitching, with a .856 OPS.
This tells me that while he was a better at-home in Coors Field, his power basically translated everywhere. It also tells me that he could help balance the O’s lineup against lefties.
As a defensive 3rd-baseman, Fangraphs.com states Atkins has a UZR/150 of -5 for his career. UZR/150 refers to runs above defensive average, per 150 games. I have stated previously that I am not comfortable with defensive statistics and their reliability. If I suspend that argument for a second, it is should be noted that Mora had 2009 UZR/150 of +2. If you believe in advanced defensive metrics, you would have to believe that Atkins has been a slightly worse-fielder for his career, than Mora was for 2009.
It will lead many of the people who believe those defensive numbers, to state the O’s should actively pursue San Diego’s Kouzmanoff, who receives higher accolades for his defensive abilities. Myself, while I acknowledge Kouzmanoff to be the better defensive player, I would rather sign Atkins for one year as a Free Agent, vs. trading the assets probably necessary to obtain Kouzmanoff.
The O’s would not be signing Atkins with the belief he would come close to replicating his 2006 season, where he had a .965 OPS, a .329 average, 29 homers, and 120 rbi.
They would be signing Atkins with the belief that if he did not have to play in the National League West, and the pitcher friendly stadiums of LA, SD, and San Francisco; that he could rebound and out produce what Mora provided in 2009.
A 2010 season of a .750 OPS, 20 homers, 80 rbi would be a realistic expectation to me. If the O’s do not want to hand 3rd to Bell, nor allow Wigginton to keep the seat warm for a couple of months; than I believe Atkins would be a good one year addition.
Owner
Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.