Will Maryland Follow-Up Win Vs. USC With A Win At Minnesota?

Last Saturday Maryland overcame a 14 point deficit to beat USC in College Park on Homecoming; improving to 4-3 overall, and 1-3 in Big Ten play.

The win felt good in the moment for all Maryland fans, which was understandable as we haven’t seen MD come back from many 2 TD deficits, and a down USC team still carries cache.

I’m not even going to be the old man complaining about the students rushing the field.
Yes, rushing the field for a win over a USC team that’s not in the Top 25, and is also now 1-4 in the Big Ten feels a bit off to me; but the students rushing the field are 17-21 years old.
They were experiencing something new, let them enjoy it.

And hell, even though USC wasn’t in the Top 25, you could argue the win felt new for most Maryland fans, not just the current students.
Maryland’s slain giant names before, but clearly it’s not a regular occurrence.

It wasn’t a shocking win by any means though.

It was a game we talked about before the season, and just a few weeks ago as being a game Maryland could win.
We knew it being Homecoming, MD would have one of, if not their best crowds of the year.
A better environment.

We also know that Big Teams which have had to travel more than two time zones for games have struggled year.

At game-time, ESPN’s Analytics were giving MD a 33.7% chance of winning.
That had been closer to 50/50 before MD’s back-to-back losses at Indiana and to Northwestern.
But even at 33.7%, that percentage was basically telling you it was a game MD could win, even if they weren’t expected to do so.

Lastly, another reason I felt MD had a chance to pull the upset, was that USC’s lines are not the standard of a typical Big Ten power.
They have skill position talent, but they weren’t going to destroy MD in the trenches.

So, Coach Locksley and the Terrapins found a way to win.
Credit to them, and I hope they enjoyed their earned W.

I have to admit, I found myself vacillating from enjoying the win, and being a bit irritated actually.
The irritation stemming to thinking about MD’s three losses to Michigan State, Indiana, and Northwestern.

Yes, Indiana and their new Head Coach Curt Cignetti are having a dream season so far (7-0 overall, 4-0 in the Big Ten, currently ranked #13 Nationally) in Cignetti’s first year with the Hoosiers program.
They are winning games, and looking good doing so.
Maybe they are more skilled than I’ve given them credit for.  I know they had a lot of transfers into the program, including numerous players that followed Cignetti from James Madison to Indiana.
Still, I’m skeptical that Indiana’s roster is as talented as USC’s.

Even if you omit that game, and just say, “Indiana turned out to be really good. No harm losing that game,” there are still the Michigan State and Northwestern games which were both at home.
Maybe you could even understand losing one of those two games.  After all upsets happen.  If MD had a chance to pull the upset vs. USC, the Spartans and Wildcats had similar odds to pull upsets on MD.

But losing all three of those games really left MD in a precarious position with their ’24 season.
The margin for error is pretty much non-existent.

One reason for that is that no reasonable person is going to be calling for MD to pull a massive road upset at either #1 Oregon, or at #3 Penn State.
So if you give Maryland L’s in those forthcoming games, MD is under a lot of pressure to make the most of the other remaining games (at Minnesota, Rutgers, Iowa).

If MD were to lose as expected to Oregon and Penn State, but win their other three remaining games (including Saturday vs. the Golden Gophers); the Terps would finish the regular season at 7-5, 4-5.
Not great by any means, but good enough that MD would definitively remain in the bowl cycle, and have an opportunity to finish with 8 wins for a third consecutive year.

While there wouldn’t be a step-forward in on-field results, you could argue that if MD won a 4th consecutive bowl game, that they’d be extending a run of basic competency.

As Maryland is trying to build a program, it’s a long-road towards relevancy.
You are trying to take annual incremental steps.
Leveling out would not be good.
But regression would be worse.

Again, Maryland doesn’t have margin for error, after losing all three of the Michigan State, Indiana, Northwestern games.
If MD wants last week’s game to potentially mean anything, then they have to follow up that win, with another win this week vs. Minnesota.

Maryland and Minnesota have not faced each other since the 2021 season.

Like MD, Minnesota is also 4-3 overall, but they are 2-2 in Conference play.

The Golden Gophers have wins vs. Rhode Island, Nevada, USC, and at UCLA.

Their losses are to North Carolina, Iowa, and at Michigan.

ESPN’s Match-up Predictor is giving Minnesota a 61.6% chance at the home win.

Senior QB Max Brosmer has thrown for 1,456 yards, with 8 TD’s, and 4 picks.
He’s completing 68% of his attempts.
This is his first year with Minnesota, after 4 years with New Hampshire.

Sophomore RB Darius Taylor leads Minnesota with 432 yards on 89 attempts (4.9 yards per carry). He also has 6 TD’s rushing.
Taylor has shown an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, with 29 receptions for 223 yards, and 2 more TD’s.

Senior WR Daniel Jackson has 42 receptions, for 451 yards, and a TD.

Minnesota has 13 sacks, with Senior DL Jah Joyner leading with 3.5.
The Gophers have 13 picks, with Freshman DB Koi Perich leading with 4.

The Gophers Head Coach is PJ Fleck, who turns 44 in November.
Fleck has been the HC since 2017.
Fleck’s won all 5 Bowl Games he’s taken Minnesota to.

Prior to the Big Ten Football divisions being dissolved with this 2024 season, Minnesota had finished in 2nd place in the Big Ten West in 2021, and 2022 before finishing 6-7 overall, and 3-6 in the Big Ten (Tied for 4th in the Big Ten West) in 2023.

In December 2022 Fleck signed a 7 year $42M extension.

Minnesota is a 4.5 point favorite vs. Maryland, and the Over / Under is 45.5.