MLB teams have until 5pm EST on the 23rd (tomorrow) which is 7am on the 24th Japan time, to submit bids for Japanese SS Tsuyoshi Nishioka. It appears that the MLB market for Nishioka is thinning, which could only the O’s if they choose to enter the submission process. I will not pretend to have substantial knowledge of Nishioka, but it is hard to believe he would not be a significant upgrade over Izturis.
Someone who does have first-hand knowledge of Nishioka is his former Manager (and current ESPN analyst) Bobby Valentine, who recently stated the following about Nishioka:
“He is a good player, he is a talented kid. If he had been a college kid four or five years ago, he would have been a first-round pick. He runs faster than a lot of people. He can get a hit. He can steal a base. He can bunt. He is still developing physically and mentally. And this year, he stayed healthy all year. He has style issues, positive and negative: he likes to be noticed. How he develops will depend on what team signs him. I think that most organizations will think he will be better on the other side of the base {second base}. He doesn’t look like a classic major league shorstop. I don’t know if that look will transfer here. But I think he can be an outstanding shortstop.”
Valentine identifies the concerns that other organizations have confidentially let known to the press. Regardless of what other teams think about Valentine’s personality, I would think you would ultimately defer to his bottom-line, which is that he believes Nishioka can be an outstanding SS. It makes sense to defer to Valentine here. Nobody associated with an MLB Front-office, or International Scouting Department is going to have see more of Nishioka than Valentine. Valentine spent 10 years in the Majors as a player, and was a Manager with the Rangers for 7 years, and another 6 years with the Mets. He should have the tools necessary to determine who is, and who is not capable of playing SS in the bigs right? The Orioles thought enough of Valentine to consider him for their opening at Manager last-summer.
Nishioka turned 26 in July, and has played in 817 games, and accumulated 3,111 at-bats in Japan. For his career, he has a .790 OPS (.364 On-base%, .426 Slugging %). He is coming off of his best season, which included a .346 batting average, .905 OPS, 206 hits, 51 XBH’s (32 doubles), and 22 steals. Nishioka is a 5x NBP All-Star, and a 3x Golden Glove.
The estimations I have seen on the posting fee range from $10-$15M. If you were to win the bid, I have seen estimations of the contract 3 years at $3-$5M per. Potentially you are looking at a total-investement of $19 to $30M over a 3 year span. That is a strong investment in a player, and certainly inherit with risk. I know I prefer that financial risk vs. trading a commodity like Hernandez to Minnesota or Tampa for Hardy for Bartlett.
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Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.