Will the O’s contend again in ’13? Why Not?

There is a narrative that what the Baltimore Orioles have achieved this year is a miracle, an example of divine intervention. That thought process says that the O’s have won with smoke and mirrors in ’12, and the law of averages will catch-up with Baltimore next year.

Basically people have looked at the Orioles record in 1 run (27-9), and Extra-inning (16-2) games, along with the Run Differential numbers (Currently -1, but -54 as late as August 23rd) and do not believe anything the O’s have done this year is sustainable.

I do not agree.

Let’s be clear on what I am, and am not arguing. Do I think if the 2013 O’s play 18 Extra-inning games, the Orange & Black will again win 89% of those games? No, of course not.

What I think, is that not everything has gone right for the O’s in 2012, and that while the true talent of the Birds might be something like 82 wins, not a ton has to go right for the Orioles to again contend.

Of course not everything is going to go according to plan. The Yankees did not anticipate missing Rivera most of this year, and being without Pineda. The Rays did not anticipate playing months without Longoria. Boston did not plan for Lester to have an era approaching 5, or Ellsbury to be limited to 70+ games, etc. etc. The Blue Jays did not expect Romero to have an era approaching 6, or Jose Bautista to be limited to 90 games.

Injuries and under-performance will happen.

It happened for the Orioles this year. The O’s lost their starting LF (Reimold) after 16 games. Markakis  has played in just 104 games. Hammel has had just 20 starts. Hardy has a career .741 OPS (.786+ in his 3 previous years with over 129 games played). In ’12, Hardy is at .670 for the year. Despite 15 homers over his last 178 ab’s, Reynolds’ OPS for the year (.783) is still below his career mark (.810). 2nd base has of course remained a black-hole.

At one point this season, the O’s had to send 3/5′s of their rotation to the Minors within in a week. If you want to argue that Matusz and Arrieta will not be better next year, that is fine. Certainly that is possible. I’d argue that they (or their replacements) only figure to be better. One of those replacements is Britton, who has thrown just 59.1 innings this year.

Which Oriole has had a season this year, which you believe is not capable of being replicated next year?

Adam Jones?

Jones 2012: .292 baa, 32 hr’s, 81 rbi, 39 doubles, 3 triples, 34 bb’s, 118 k’s, .857 OPS, .367 wOBA, .225 ISO.
Jones 2011: .280 baa, 25 hr’s, 83 rbi, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 29 bb’s, 113 k’s, .785 OPS, .339 wOBA, .185 ISO.

Could Jones regress to his 2011 numbers? There are still questions with Jones’ plate-discipline, so sure, that is a possibility. If Jones comes down to his ’11 numbers, and Reynolds and Hardy are that much closer to their career numbers – has the offense suffered at-all?

Chris Davis has limitations to his game (36 bb’s, 160 k’s), but has strengths as well. His ISO this year is .211. For his career it is .201. He has a .801 OPS this year, and a .766 OPS for his career. Maybe he comes down a little, but his power to all fields is profound. If he continues to get ab’s, he will continue to provide homers. Between DH, 1st, 3rd, LF, RF, he will also continue to help the roster.

If Betemit is just used as a DH against RHP next year, he will be better respected, and provide value.

It remains to be seen, but I expect McLouth will be brought back for next year. If that happens, I think him, Reimold, and Hoes will combine to give the O’s more out of LF next year, than they received over ’12 as a whole.

Over Machado’s first 174 ab’s, he has put up 16 xbh’s. His defense at 3rd has been excellent. This experience for him can not be discounted. I would not expect Machado to be ‘fully baked’ as a player next year, but I do think we will continue to see him improve month-to-month. I think as exactly the player he has been so far, he would only help the roster over the course of an entire season.

Bullpens can be volatile. Maybe you believe that Johnson and Strop can not maintain their 2012 production next year. Those who believe that, will point to Johnson’s limited K rates and Strop’s control. I’ll point to their ground-ball rates, and their overpowering stuff. I fully believe if they stay healthy, they will stay very productive.

Ayala (if the O’s pick up the option) has had back-to-back good years. Could that change? Sure. There are more arms behind him though. O’Day was strong in ’09, and ’10, before an injury-riddled ’11. Should he again be healthy, I think he again produces. Patton? Maybe he steps back. Again there would be a fair amount of other internal options* to replace his innings.

*Others that could be in the bullpen mix: Gonzalez, Arrieta, Hunter, S. Johnson, Pomeranz, Wada, and Schrader.

If you want to state that as a whole the bullpen will not be as productive in ’13 as ’12, I think that is fair. As a group, they probably don’t dominate in quite the same fashion. I think there are enough quality arms to believe they should remain productive. As long as the rotation in-front of them does not implode.

So what about that ’13 rotation?

With that 2 seam fastball, I am a believer in Hammel. His stuff is apparent and not going away. He has typically been durable. If anything, he should be on the mound more often for the Birds next year.

I don’t think we see a lot of flux out of Chen either way next year. I think he has proven to be a very valuable mid-rotation starter.

We talked about Britton a bit above. Like anyone else, you do not know if he will be healthy. If he is healthy, the bet should be that he pitches better than Arrieta, and Matusz did in ’12. If his Secondaries can be improved a tad, to go along with his excellent 2 seamer, he could make a jump. At the minimum, I think he puts up a year similar to his 2011 season, which would help the rotation overall.

One of the reasons the O’s are where they currently are this year is what they have gotten out of Chris Tillman since coming back to the Majors July 4th. Tillman worked hard in the off-season last year, and hard with Rick Peterson in the Minors this year. He has earned his results over this 2nd half. If he maintains his current mechanics, and this stuff; why can’t he continue to have success next year?

Dylan Bundy is going to be in the O’s rotation by the end of May next year. I don’t think it is placing unfair expectations on Bundy, to expect him to be as good as most 4th/5th starters during the course of his Rookie season.

Aside from talking about McLouth returning, this is all just discussing the existing internal parts. The O’s won’t have to try hard to improve 2nd base. They could add another FA SP. They could go for more of a sure thing in LF.

With 6 games left in the 2012 season, the O’s are:

13th Runs
20th Batting average
23rd On-base %
11th Slugging %
17th ERA
21st Quality Starts
19th WHIP
17th Batting average against
10th Defensive Efficiency

The O’s power is legitimate (2nd in homers). The ability to get on-base will remain a concern. I think upgrades at 2nd, and a full season of McLouth / Reimold / Hoes in LF (if not a larger upgrade all together) will help in that regard.

If McLouth is in left, and Hardy/Machado continues to man the left-side of the infield, I would expect the O’s to be in the upper 3rd in defense.

I think any drop from the bullpen, will be off-set by increases in the rotation.

Whatever the O’s do this Winter, I believe they will go into Spring ’13 with a team that can again contend. That does not mean they will. Maybe everything will again go wrong, and they will finish with 75 wins. I just don’t think a miracle has occurred in ’12, or will need to occur ‘again’ in ’13 for the O’s to again contend.