World Cup 2022 Qatar – Part 2 USMNT and Group B

For the general overview of this WC take a look at Part 1 if you haven’t already done so. Part 2 is going to focus strictly on Group B and in drill down into what has to happen for the USMNT to advance. Its important to remember that this is a tournament. Its not about a single match, its about putting together a string of 3 matches that get you enough points to advance to the knockout stages. Roster management is critical. While a team can still overcome a slip up its really hard especially in a group this close in abilities. So just what are the main storylines for the US and what are our chances?

1. With the final roster announcements, the USMNT is the second youngest team in the tournament behind only Ghana. Ok its 2022 and players at this level have been typically playing soccer since they were little kids. True. Training and conditioning methods are vastly improved over the last 20 years. Players develop at much younger ages than a generation ago (look no further than WC 2018 where France’s 19 year old Kylian Mbappe led Les Blues to the title and was FIFA Young Player of the Tournament). Also true. But the issue with the youthful age is not about their actual age. Its about their experience playing at the international level and most importantly the experience they have playing alongside their national team teammates. Every team has its nuances in formations and tactics. For example, Tim Ream plays lcb for Fulham FC in the EPL. His role is to anchor the defense and be the main passer out of the back. But the Fulham cbs typically stay back. For the USMNT Tim Ream will also play lcb. But manager Gregg Berhalter prefers to play a high press where the cbs are much more advanced. Different approaches to the same position. So if Ream starts will his instructions be to play like he does at Fulham or will he be asked to play the high press? Now the really hard to fathom situation with our side. During qualifying the US was hit by the injury bug for key players frequently. In fact they had the most missed matches for their combined roster of any team in CONCACAF. by a fair margin. So here it is: There is a very good chance that we will see a starting lineup that has NEVER been used before. One of the complaints for the last 2 years has been that the US has seemed to play below the level of its talent. Berhalter has said from day 1 that this was a process and build up toward the WC. Well we are going to see if this process has worked or not next week.
   
2. The draw for Group B did not do the US any favors. The lowest FIFA ranking in our group is Iran at 20. Every other group has a team ranked at least 30 or lower. Looking at the Pots for the Group Stage Draw tells the story of how tough this draw is. Iran was the 2nd highest rated team in Pot 3 and Wales was by far the highest rated team in Pot 4 (19th and the next highest rated team was Costa Rica at 31). Sure the FIFA rankings are odd oftentimes but the point is valid. This is a tight group especially in the fight for second place.
   
3. Then the schedule which didn’t do the US any favors either. There are a couple of schools of thought on the schedule you’d like to get. Given the single week of training and no friendly matches, one thought is to have your easiest game first. Chance to get some cohesion going before your tough matches. (In this case that wouldn’t mean much because there are no easier matches in this group). The other thought is to go ahead and get the tough one out of the way. Again get some cohesion going but the result isn’t critical compared to your other two matches. So if you wanted your easiest match first we’d have wanted Iran. If you wanted your hardest match first we’d have wanted England. Well nope we got Wales. One could also say that drawing Wales first isn’t bad because its a match you most likely need to get a result in to advance and both teams have the same disadvantage in it being their first match. True enough until you look at the rest of the schedule. England are far and away the odds on favorites to win the group and it would be a shock for them to not advance. They are the 4th overall favorites to win the whole thing. So Iran got the benefit of getting England out of the way first. Gives them a chance to fine tune their tactics in a match they fully expect to lose. So Iran actually got an ok draw as did England. So how did Wales fare? Well they got the best draw of all. With Wales, the US, and Iran being so close its likely that the final match day will be the deciding factor. And Wales doesn’t play England until then. This sets up a scenario where England is likely to have already advanced (having beaten Iran and the US) or only needs a draw to win the group. If England is sitting on 6 points they would most certainly do a heavy rotation to rest key players for their first knockout stage match. This puts Wales in the best position to take a point from England. So here are the general scenarios for each team.
   
4. England will play to beat Iran. Then they will tighten things up a bit against the US. Play to win but likely not take many risks as they are setup with just a draw. If they beat the US they will rotate a bunch and sit back against Wales being fine with a 0-0 draw guaranteeing them first in the group.
   
5. Iran will play tightly against England hoping to find some miracle draw or to not let the score run away from them if they lose to keep goal differential in play. Then they will have to go for the W against Wales. The Wales – Iran match is an interesting one for the US as its hard to know what result you want there until after matchday 1. Then Iran plays the US and who knows how this will shake out. There is a chance Iran is all but out or that the US needs a big win so it could be a crazy wide open affair.
   
6. Wales is in the drivers seat with this schedule. They will play a compact defense against the US in their first match and hope to score a counter. They’ll be fine with a draw and in terrific shape with a W. Then against Iran they will play more open and go for the W. If they draw with the US then they will want to put up some goals in this one, again for tie breaker purposes.
   
7. Then the good guys. Tough group, tough schedule, inexperienced team but with a lot of talent. Two schools of thought here. Just go all in against Wales. The US is the more talented team and should be able to win. The risk though is if you can’t find the net a counter by Wales could send you down to defeat and you are in a huge hole now. The other train of thought is to take a middle of the road approach. A draw certainly keeps you in the hunt. This is a tough scenario for the US and it will be interesting to see how Berhalter has the team prepared the tactics they employ.

Group B – My Choice for Group of Death

Composite FIFA Rankings – 60

England (5) – The Three Lions

A team loaded with attacking talent and Harry Kane tops the list. Kane won the Golden Boot (top goal scorer) in 2018 and hasn’t slowed down. Now that said he has not scored a run of play goal since November a year ago. That is a bit worrisome. Then pick from the list of Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden, Mason Mount, Jack Grealish…… They simply have too many guys they can throw at you so keeping a clean slate against them is very difficult. However, they aren’t a team without warts. They have not been very good in the back, especially at cb with Harry McGuire’s form at Manchester United been marginal at best. But he is experienced and has the talent level. If he picks up his game they could make a run. But what their run may really depend on in a midfielder by the name of Jude Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund). He has been a terror in the Bundesliga this season and rumors abound that he is due for a big money transfer to either Manchester City or Liverpool in January. He’ll be looking to show his stuff the next month to garner that big pay day.

Iran (20) – Team Melli

The Iranians have several things going for them. First, of course the obvious support they will have from the crowd. Expect the stands to be pretty full of their supporters given the close proximity to Qatar. Secondly, if the weather is a factor they should be most comfortable playing in those conditions of any team in the group. And lastly, they are just a pretty good team. During qualification they went 14-1-3 and finished topping their group in the final round. They are going to employ a pretty traditional 4-3-3 with a heavy reliance on maintaining their defensive structure. At the other end the guy to watch is Porto forward Mehdi Taremi. He has scored over 20 goals in each of his past three years for the Portugal giants and has 18 goals in 16 matches (all competitions) so far this season. With a career 27 goals in his 61 caps he has shown he knows how to get it done for his national team.

United States (16) – The Stars and Stripes

As already mentioned this is a team loaded with top tier talent. But they are young and have very limited time playing together. Its been clear over the last couple of years though that they love playing together and have totally bought in to what Berhalter is trying to get them to do. The question for this tournament is how quickly they come together with less than a week’s worth of training and do they maintain their focus during the tough stretches they will face. They have struggled to score for a while now although their Xg during qualifying was significantly higher than their actual goals scored. That indicates that the ability is their. The best news is perhaps that they are as healthy as they have been in years. Weston McKennie and Sergino Dest come in having recently being out for a bit but nothing serious and they are both in team training. How they look this week will determine how and when Berhalter uses them. The biggest surprise on the roster was the exclusion on keeper Zack Steffen who was the #1 during most of qualifying. But he has struggled with injuries and form over the last 18 months and Matt Turner has taken over. Turner is a superb shot stopper (better than Steffen) and is improving with the ball at his feet and in coming off his line. I think he’s ready for a good tournament and we will need him. While we struggle to score goals, our midfield is terrific. Tyler Adams will play the defensive mid role and Yunas Musah will bring the ball forward with McKennie filling the box to box role. McKennie is also terrific on set pieces. Then there is Brenden Aaronson who is 6th thus far in the EPL in distance covered. They guy has a huge motor and the talent to go with it. But the key players are probably the wingers. Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, and Gio Reyna are hugely talented. Weah is probably the best down the flanks on counters, Pulisic is the best ball handler, and Gio has the best overall game and shot. The question is can Berhaler find a way to put all 3 of them on the field at the same time? Several ways to do that but its also really good depth and being able to bring a talent like that off the bench is huge. Then the biggest question facing the US side. Just who plays the center forward #9 role and can they find their scoring touch? In the back we will mostly play with 4 across the back but don’t be surprised to see a 3 cb formation either. We will probably mostly play a 4-3-3 but there are some wrinkles Berhalter might use to get more of the big guns on the field together. Its all about the tradeoffs.

Wales (19) – The Dragons

The Welsh are returning to the WC for the first time in 64 years!! In fact Sweden 1958 is the only WC they have played in. So there will be plenty of pressure on them this time around. And unfortunately for them, and every team in Group B, through the weird qualification process teams that got in via the playoffs were seeded in Pot 4. Wales is realistically a Pot 3 and almost a Pot 2 side. So being drawn out of Pot 4 made this group tougher than it should have been. But it is what it is and now they have to play. The Dragons will play a low block formation to maintain a tight defensive umbrella around their area. They don’t worry a lot about possession. Case in point, during their most recent Nations League they averaged just over 40% possession. But they have some fast forwards and are dangerous in counter attacks. Dan James can run past defenders and Gareth Bale is a clinical finisher. Bale scored the trophy winner for LAFC in the recent MLS Audi Cup final. He is very dangerous. The question facing Wales is their depth. Do they have enough to withstand the rigors of 3 matches in 8 days? Bale is 33 so its worth watching. He certainly does not have 270 minutes in him. What will be interesting to watch is how the US handles James. The Fulham forward plays along side US’s Tim Ream and Antonee Robinson so they know each others strengths and weaknesses.

Projection – England wins the group (but maybe by not as much as many think) and second is up for grabs. Oddsmakers have Wales and the US on a flip. I got to give my vote to the good guys. The US advances.

Lets look now at just how the US may come out in each match. This is highly variable and dependent on all the results so take this for what its worth. But this is how we might approach things with an impetus on safely beating or drawing with Wales, defending against England and trying to keep it 0-0, then attacking Iran for the W.

United States vs Wales

A standard 4-3-3 although the way it plays out is more like a 4-1-2-3. Wales is going to sit back and look to counter. This is our strongest possession based team and has the width with Pulisic and Weah on the wings to get behind the Wales back line and either cut into the box and look for a shot or to feed Sargent near the penalty spot or McKennie making a late run just outside the area. Dest and Robinson will push up wide in the attack as well so Adams has to not get caught too far up field to support the cbs against a Wales counter. Neither of the 2 cbs are very fast so they need to use caution when venturing forward. Whether the back line plays a high line or stays home a bit remains to be seen but expect the initial balls forward will come from Ream or Zimmerman. Musah will be the main transition player to get the ball from the back into Wales’ half of the field with support from McKennie. Set pieces will likely be delivered from Pulisic and look for McKennie and the cbs to be dangerous on these dead ball plays. Turner needs to come up big during any counters and be willing to come off his line more than he usually does (he has vastly improved that during his short time at Arsenal) to cut off crosses or long through balls.

Predicted Result: 2-1 USA

Key Substitutions: Morris for Pulisic, Reyna for Weah. Ferreira for Sargent if we have a lead otherwise Wright. Scally for Dest. Carter-Vickers for Ream or Zimmerman.

USA vs England

Again coming out in a 4-3-3 but a more traditional tactic. Yedlin/Moore take over at rb for Dest for more defensive minded play and both of them are still fine down the flank to bang crosses into the box. Aaronson wide on the right but lots of interchange between he and Pulisic switching sides. Expect Aaronson to be the enegizer bunny to disrupt the England progression through the midfield. The US will concede possession and look to counter down the wings. Also look for long balls out of the back over the top to a runner (Pulisic or Sargent). What has come to be known as our MMA midfield is the key to this match. When McKennie, Adams, and Musah have played together they have put in some terrific defensive work in the middle of the pitch. The longer the game goes 0-0 the better.

Dear Matt, please have the game of your life.

Predicted Result: England just has too much horsepower and overcomes a stout US defense 1-0.

Key Substitutions: Luca de la Torre for McKennie, Acosta for Adams, Scally for Robinson, Roldan for Musah

USA vs Iran

Back to the formation and tactics from the Wales match with a few personnel changes. Weah moves to the #9 and Reyna plays rw. Aaronson and Musah pair in the midfield and Long is in for Ream. Fans have been clamoring to see Pulisic, Weah, and Reyna in the attack together and here’s our chance. This implications of this game are just so varied. But this is perhaps our best attacking look assuming that we are still in the running to advance. The ability to run this lineup out to start is going to depend a ton on what happens in the first two matches and how well Berhalter is able to use his 5 subs to try and keep guys fresh. But remember this. Getting to the knockout round and having tired legs is much better than not getting there!

Predicted Result – USA wins 2-0. Yes I am a homer.

Key Substitutions: Acosta for Adams, Scally for Robinson, Carter-Vickers for Zimmerman, Morris for Pulisic

So there you have it. I predict the US advanced by beating or tying Wales and beating Iran.

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL WIN!