Wrapping Up ’20, Thinking About ’21 And Beyond

The Baltimore Orioles have played 54 games in their abbreviated 2020 season to-date, with 6 games remaining on the schedule. When the O’s season sends Sunday vs. Toronto in Buffalo, the focus turns to what comes next.

Any forward looking plan, starts with a review and evaluation.

At the most basic and broad level, I think we can call this ’20 season a success for the Orioles.

At some point during this year, we questioned if we would see any baseball. We didn’t get a full-season, but we did get two months of action. Two months to look further at what the O’s have existing internally.

The Minor Leagues were deprived of their seasons, but the Orioles brass got to spend extended time with most of the best talent at Bowie.

The ’20 MLB Draft was also abridged and it will be sometime before we know how the acquired talent accumulates to pro ball – but the draft was widely regarded as a quality influx of talent.

The trades we saw this Summer were logical, and will add further lottery tickets and depth to the organization as a whole.

And before looking at players individually, we can say collectively that Brandon Hyde and the Orioles put a representative product on the Major League field. Some prognostications had the O’s going 10-50 for the year. Instead we saw a team which was competitive most nights. This most recent 5 game series vs. Tampa Bay a good microcosm for the O’s overall. Played hard, competed, just not good enough. In ’20, the O’s playing hard, competing, and not being complete embarrassments was enough.

Those are all positive things and reasons why I call this ’20 season a success.

Now let’s look under the hood a bit more, and with a closer inspection – determine what the Orioles have, and the questions what exist going forward.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Let’s go around the diamond, starting at Catcher.

• Severino is mirrored in an offensive slump, and his defense has been up and down. Still, he’s got a .761 OPS after a .740 OPS last year. He’s not a black hole offensively at all, and sometimes looks like a legitimate weapon. My eyes tell me Sisco has improved some behind the plate. He’ll never be particularly good defensively, but I think he’s made a step to be closer to average. Sisco has a .785 OPS after a .729 mark last year. He’s got plate discipline. He has some pop. Based off of his MiL career, I thought he’d hit more for average vs. what we’ve seen from him in the Majors so far. I definitely anticipated more contact – his 35 k’s in 88 ab’s is ridiculous. We’re all waiting around for Rutschman, but with Severino and Sisco; the Orioles have two existing usable options. Maybe one of them gets traded this Winter? Maybe you run it back with both? I think it’s fair to say that if ’20 had been a normal year, Rutschman would have had likely split his season between High A and AA. I would have anticipated him joining the Orioles by the end of May ’21. As it is, I’m not sure when to expect him. He has gotten time at the Alternative Camp this Summer, and that’s a good thing; but he didn’t get the experience of playing 140+ games and he ends ’20 stuck on 130 career MiL ab’s, and nothing above Delmarva.

• I’m going to leap over 1st base for now. We will circle back here later.

• I like Alberto more than his production says I should. Maybe it is his persona. Maybe it’s the fact that he plays and looks different than most players in this 3 True Outcome era. So when a poster at the BSL Board suggested this weekend that Alberto was a sneaky non-tender candidate; my first reaction was to balk at that. A closer evaluation says, maybe? The Orioles have payroll flexibility (I’m going to mention this several times). That gives them options. If they think they can improve on Alberto, than maybe he’s a non-tender. I also think you can argue that with the payroll flexibility, and the system not having a lot of great options among Middle Infielders in the high Minors – that you bring him back. That would be my choice. The issue with Alberto right now is that yes he’s batting .286; but it’s a hollow .286. He doesn’t walk, and he doesn’t slug enough, so his OPS is just .706. His doubles per ab are up this year, but his homers per ab are down. I’d bring Hanser back. He wears out lefties, and you don’t have a better option internally. But if he’s going to keep the 2nd base job through ’21, he is going to need to do more vs. RHP, take the occasional walk, and find the seats a bit more often. Also, he has to avoid his cool spells becoming extended cold spells (.501 OPS in September).

• We advocated for Iglesias for sometime last Winter, but not because we anticipated him having 15 doubles in 130 ab’s. We thought he’d be a plus defender, and not an automatic out in the lineup. My head wants to say Iglesias is turning 31, and he is closing in on 3,000 career MLB at-bats – that he is, who his career numbers say he is (a below average hitter). But the eyes have watched him square everything as an Oriole. No, I don’t believe he’s turned himself into a .380 hitter, but I think picking up the team option should be the easiest decision Mike Elias & Company make this Winter.

• Ruiz had a .682 OPS in 370 ab’s in ’19, and he has a .699 OPS in 160 ab’s in ’20. He plays a good 3rd base. He has a little pop. His .217 career batting average (699 career ML ab’s) isn’t going to cut it. When he is going right, he’s using the field and spraying line drives. I think he got a bit pull happy this year, and to me he has in his head he has to drive the ball to stay in the Majors. He doesn’t look like a longer-term piece, he looks like a stop-gap option at 3rd. Which is fine for now, but if you can improve on him, you should be looking to do so.

• I said I’d circle back to 1st base. Let’s do that here, with a larger look at 1st, LF, RF, and DH. Going to give quick takes on a couple of players, then delve into the larger discussion of where does everyone fit.

Mountcastle can flat out hit. The idea that he wasn’t on some of the Top 100 Prospect lists, should give you pause about some of the Top 100 Prospect lists. All we heard as he was ascending to the Majors was, “Bat plays, questionable plate discipline, no position.” That’s all fair enough, but the questions which existed with him, weren’t more profound than his positives. Right now, he’s walking at a much higher rate in the Majors (BB% 8.8) than he did at AAA last year (BB% 4.3). Will that be maintained? Who knows, but the early returns are positive there. Despite the arm concerns, I think he is adequate in LF, but I don’t think that should be position going forward. Less because of questioning his abilities, but more believing the O’s have better defensive options. To me, he should be 1st and DH going forward, and the O’s should be real excited about having him around for years at minimal cost.

Nunez has a .790 OPS this year, after a .771 mark last year. The power is real. The exit velo is real. His defensive limitations are real. If the Universal DH is adopted beyond this experimental year in ’20, you should be able to move Nunez somewhere, and not have to give him away. You also don’t have to trade him until you are comfortable with Trey Mancini’s health.

Mancini is expected back next Spring. With him losing a full year as he battled cancer, many will rightfully wonder if last year’s Most Valuable Oriole is ready to pick up where he left off in ’19. Just going by the quotes we’ve seen attributed to Trey, I’m expecting him to be ready to go.

Santander had his ’20 interrupted with an oblique injury. Prior to that, he had a .890 OPS over 153 ab’s. His .261 batting average was the same as in ’19, but he had gains in both his on-base %, and slugging. He turns 26 in October. In some form-or-fashion, he is a piece of this team going forward for me.

Stewart has a .203 batting average, and a .904 OPS. We shouldn’t read too much into 69 ab’s, but I think we have a decent handle on who Stewart is as a player at this point. He does have power, he will definitely take a walk, and his defense is average at-best. I also don’t think he’s a .200 hitter in the Majors.

Diaz is coming. Soon. I believe he will be with the Orioles as soon as the O’s gain an additional year of team control, so I look for him to be in Baltimore by the end of May ’21.

Davis. I’m not going to further kick the man. If the O’s want to determine if a full slate of games is going to be played in ’21 prior to releasing him – fine. But he shouldn’t play another game with the Orioles.

So, how do you make this work?

I see where Mancini is health wise, and how he looks performance wise next Spring. If he looks ready to go, I trade Nunez. I target Mancini for 1st.

Santander is my RF.

Mountcastle and Stewart split LF, DH, and occasionally 1st to begin ’21.

By June ’21, Diaz takes over LF.

Then the decision becomes what do you do with Mancini and Stewart?
Mancini is under team control through ’22. He has a track-record of ML success. He is everything you want from a teammate. He’s everything you want as an ambassador for the team, and for this City.

Given what Mancini has gone through this year, and how he’s loved within the organization – maybe it’s unfathomable he could be traded next year?
Let’s say Mancini is right from Spring Training on next year. You get to June, and he’s producing. Would it be a bad look for the O’s to trade him? Probably in a lot of circles. Those circles probably including the Orioles clubhouse.

The question for the O’s in my opinion would be do they invest in a contract extension with Mancini, or do they believe Stewart can provide similar production to Mancini at a lower cost? Mancini is 29 next March. Stewart is 27 this November. As we said above, Mancini is under control through ’22. Stewart is under team control through ’25. My current guess is that if Mancini looks right next Spring, the O’s reward him with a contract extension – and Stewart – if there haven’t been injuries to Mountcatsle or Santander – is the odd man out.

• Some people will quibble with the above and say I should be including Hays in the evaluation of corner OF’s going forward. That might be fair, but I’m still looking at him as the Orioles best option in CF. Hays struggled, and got hurt (maybe contributing to his struggles before he went on the DL) to begin the year. I believe in Hays offensively and defensively. Of the current everyday players on the roster, he’s who I’m most excited about. Pressure is on though, starting next Spring. He has to stay in the lineup and produce because…

• Mullins has done a lot to be proud of this Summer. We often talk about baseball being a game of adjustments, and dealing with failure. After a poor ’19 at multiple levels, Mullins worked. After a poor start to ’20, Mullins went back to Bowie, and earned his way back. Back in the Majors, he has been sensational defensively, and a spark plug offensively. The bunting has been fun to watch. Going back to his defense, I had the impression prior to this year that his arm was an issue. Haven’t seen that. I knew he had plus speed, but he gets great jumps and has been electric with the glove at all 3 OF positions. I am more of a believer in Hays as the Orioles starting CF going forward, but Mullins will continue to push. Competion and depth is a good thing.

• Valaika is everything you could possibly want in a utility player. Fantastic under-the-radar addition.

• Orioles pitching has been much improved in ’20, and that is a trend which should continue over the next couple of years.

• I’m pretty sure Cobb will be traded next July, but I’d be happy going into ’21 with him in the rotation. The Orioles don’t figure to extend him, he’s not a long-term piece, and he’s probably over-paid. He’s also a guy with 155 career starts, and 900+ Major League innings. His experience is good for a staff of younger guys. He’s also competent enough. He’s a legitimate ML starter.

• After an injury and the loss of his Father, Means had a rough start to his ’20 season. He’s ending on a high note, with three successive positive starts, including 12 k’s yesterday.

• We will go into the Winter, with the expectation that Akin & Kremer will be part of the Orioles rotation next Spring. I’m extremely pleased with both.

• Scott, Harvey, and Tate is the beginning of a quality bullpen.

• Don’t want to get ahead of things, but I think the Orioles have added two interesting arms in Lopez and Fulmer. EDIT: Fulmer was claimed on outright waivers by Pittsburgh today.

• Phillips, Fry, and Armstrong also in good position to be part of the Orioles pen next year. Kline has been up and down, I still like the arm. Carroll doesn’t have a lot of believers among Oriole fans, but Hyde has been complimentary several times in what he has seen privately. Carroll has to show he can have some control, and ability to get some movement. 100mph with no control, and straight isn’t going to work.

• Zimmermann got his first MLB start the other day. Lowther, Baumann (if healthy), Wells, Smith are all on the verge.

• Similar to the question posed with Rutschman above, what’s the current path for Rodriguez and Hall? In ’19, Hall had 80.2 innings with High A Frederick. In ’19, Rodriguez had 94 innings with Low A Delmarva. Had ’20 been a normal season, Hall would have spent most of the year at Bowie, and been a candidate for ML promotion at some point in ’21. Had ’20 been normal for Rodriguez, he would have started at Frederick and possibly joined Bowie late in the year. Both starters got time this Summer at the Alternative Site. That additional instruction has value. How many ‘innings’ did they get this Summer? A safe bet would imo is they both make their ML debuts sometime in ’22.

• Here’s a starting point for the Orioles ’21 Payroll.

• Here’s a few notable Free Agents over the next few FA classes.

• In-general, I feel good about where the Orioles are. The system depth is improving. You’ve created payroll flexibility going forward. System depth and payroll flexibility gives the Oriole Front Office room to maneuver. I think there is enough talent here, and on the near horizon; to believe the O’s can be +/- .500 in ’21. To me, ’21 should serve as a catalyst to Wild Card contention in ’22, and real aspirations in ’23.

What thoughts do you have on the Orioles roster? What questions do you have? What acquisitions would you like to see the O’s pursue this Winter? Jump on the BSL Board, and give your thoughts.