As the Baltimore Orioles play the final month of the 2020 regular season, top prospect Yusniel Diaz remains at their alternate training site in Bowie. While the window is closing for him to make his major-league debut this season, he remains a part of the team’s long-term plans and is poised to reach the majors by 2021.
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The centerpiece of the five-player return the Orioles received for Manny Machado in a July 2018 trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Diaz is ranked by Baltimore Sports and Life as the organization’s sixth-best prospect. Injuries limited his development time in 2019, but he was productive when healthy, evidenced in part by a 76-game run at Bowie, where he slashed .262/.335/.472 with 11 home runs, a .210 ISO, and a 10% walk rate. This summer, Diaz has been one of the top prospects at the alternate training site, where he is furthering his development in the absence of a traditional Minor League Baseball season.
Given his profile and proximity to the majors, Diaz was a dark horse candidate at the onset of this season to make his major-league debut in 2020. The Orioles have not promoted him, however, with other players stepping up with solid production in the outfield. Ryan Mountcastle has hit the ground running as the team’s everyday left fielder since being called up last month, while Cedric Mullins has stepped in and taken control of center field since Austin Hays was placed on the injured list in mid-August. Meanwhile, DJ Stewart has looked better since returning to the Orioles last week—he was on the team’s Opening Day roster, before being sent to Bowie after an 0-for-14 start—and is providing hope that he can have a strong finish to the season.
Stewart is filling in for an injured Anthony Santander, who could miss the rest of 2020 with an oblique strain. In addition to getting a closer look at Stewart over the season’s final weeks, the Orioles will give at-bats to Hays once he returns from injury—Roch Kubatko of MASN reported on Tuesday that Hays is “nearing a return from the injured list”—meaning that their outfield depth should be solid for the remainder of the season.
At this juncture, I find it unlikely that the Orioles will promote Diaz before the 2020 regular season ends later this month. Barring an injury or two among their current outfield options, the Orioles would not be able to find regular at-bats for him. It is also worth noting that outfielder Ryan McKenna, who ranked as the organization’s 19th-best prospect when BSL’s Top-30 list was updated in July, is on the Orioles’ 40-man roster, unlike Diaz. That could give McKenna the inside track to make the 28-man roster if the Orioles need outfield help over the coming weeks. The organization added McKenna to its 40-man roster last season to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, a move it will not have to make with Diaz until after this season.
If Diaz does not appear in the majors this year, then when can we expect him in the majors? The answer: not much longer, with a 2021 debut certainly in play.
Diaz is a virtual lock to be added to the 40-man roster after this season. He should see considerable time in major-league camp next spring, regardless of whether the Orioles see him as a fit on their Opening Day roster. Their outfield depth is one factor that could keep Diaz in the minors to start the regular season, as the Orioles appear likely to go into next season with Mountcastle and Santander as their everyday corner outfielders, with Hays, Mullins, and potentially Stewart in the mix for the Opening Day roster. (Trey Mancini is expected to return in 2021, which could give the club another outfield option, even if he primarily plays first base.)
The most reasonable expectation right now is that Diaz starts 2021, his age 24 season, in Triple-A, with a promotion to Baltimore potentially coming a few months into the 2021 campaign. His exact timing for reaching the majors will come down to his health and productivity, along with how and when the Orioles find a way to give him regular at-bats at the major-league level. Diaz is viewed as a key piece of the team’s rebuilding process, so ensuring that he has regular playing time once he reaches the majors is essential.
Once he arrives, Diaz should fit at the corner outfield spot. His arm strength, which is on display in the video below, could allow him to fit into right field. However, he has professional experience in center field, which could give the Orioles a bit more flexibility in how they use him.
Ultimately, the biggest questions surrounding Diaz’s future production are his ability to stay healthy and whether he can hit for more power going forward. Still, the tools for him to be a solid everyday regular at the major-league level are there, making him a key piece of the Orioles’ rebuild and a player whose MLB debut should be highly anticipated. Even as that debut appears unlikely to come in 2020, Diaz is still on the path to making an impact in Baltimore before too long.
Diaz’s future was one of the topics that Bob Phelan, Nick Stevens, and I discussed on the latest episode of The Verge. You can listen to the show here.
Orioles Analyst
A graduate of the University of Massachusetts, and Loyola University; Spedden has previously spent time in the Washington Nationals organization as a videographer for the Hagerstown Suns. As a blogger, Spedden is an Editor / Writer for the Suns fan club. Additionally, he contributes to The Nats Blog as a prospect writer, and Ballpark Digest. For BSL, Spedden covers the Orioles Minor Leagues. Co-Host of The Verge: https://anchor.fm/the-verge