The Orioles are in a strange position. They’ve had success over the past two years, including a playoff appearance. With a powerful offense and an elite defense, they seem like they are heading towards a period of being legitimate contenders. The problem is, even with the breakout season from Chris Tillman, that the pitching has not caught up.
With Dylan Bundy currently recovering from Tommy John Surgery and Kevin Gausman entering just his age 23 season, the Orioles’ future aces are still on the green side. That doesn’t even include their two top Minor League prospects, Eduardo Rodriguez and Hunter Harvey who are both a couple years away from making an impact on the Major League level.
Because of the mismatch between the offense’s readiness and the pitching readiness, there is a general cry for the Orioles to make a bold move. Aside from signing a free agent pitcher, there is a school of thought about adding another bat. One of the names that is floated as trade bait is pitcher Zach Britton. He would be the exact wrong person to trade.
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On the surface, it looks like the Orioles would be lucky to get anything in return for their 26 year old southpaw. He is coming off a season in which he appeared in 8 Major League games (7 starts) and posted a 4.97 ERA, 11.9 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, and just 4.9 K/9. That is coming off an even worse 2012 season in which he made 11 starts, posted a 5.07 ERA, 9.1 H/9, 4.8 BB/9, but a career best 7.9 K/9.
His rookie season of 2011 is looking more like the anomaly. Just entering his prime years and seemingly losing whatever limited strikeout ability–just 6.5 K/9 in 19 triple-A starts–, his penchant for the walk seems to be getting worse.
Many are including Britton’s name in potential trade talks even for a return of a flawed hitter like Ike Davis. If the Orioles are serious about the long term, giving up on Zach Britton would be a mistake.
Britton, like Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz, was a victim of the Orioles’ desperation. Unwilling to spend on free agent pitchers and with no upper level pitchers ready, the Orioles rushed their quartet of young hurlers in an effort to push their development and for the practical reason that they had nobody better. It has stunted all of their development. Arrieta has already been cast aside. Matusz is now a reliever. Tillman finally put it together last season and looks to be a solid number two or three pitcher with upside for more. Britton, despite the statistics, is worthy of a further look.
In each of his three Major League seasons, Britton’s FIP has been lower than his ERA. That indicates that he has pitched better than his results. In 2011, his 4.00 FIP was far below his 4.61 ERA. 2012’s awful 5.07 ERA clouded a slightly better than league average 4.32 FIP. Last season, his FIP rang in at 4.80, still slightly better than his 4.95 ERA. It means, despite the Orioles’ great defense, Britton has been hurt by it, rather than helped.
That is more of an indictment on their infield defense, which last year was much better. But, in previous years, Mark Reynolds, Robert Andino, and a host of role players put in significant time on defense. With Britton, an infield is important as he is one of the better groundball pitchers in the sport. With a career 55.5 percent ground ball rate and just a 6.7 swing and miss rate on pitches in the strike zone, Britton needs an infield behind him. With an improved Orioles infield, Britton should have more success.
That groundball rate is special. Since 2011, Britton’s groundball rate is better than the likes of Doug Fister, Jaime Garcia, AJ Burnett, Paul Maholm, and even Felix Hernandez. Obviously, that doesn’t make Britton a better pitcher than any of them, but it does illustrate that he does have an elite skill of eliciting ground balls. Had he pitched enough innings, he would’ve ranked 8th in Major League Baseball since he made his debut. That is something to work with.
With the high ground ball rates and the corresponding low home run rates, Britton is an ideal fourth or fifth starter on any team. Averaging 91 MPH with his fastball, he is not a soft tosser and did show he could strikeout Major League hitters in 2012. Additionally, in eight Minor League seasons, he averaged 7.9 K/9. If a pitcher can average at least 6 strikeouts per nine innings, he can be successful.
That brings his 2013 season into question. He posted just a 4.05 K/9 rate. Even more troubling is that he posted a 3.83 BB/9 rate. Sadly, that was better than his 4 per nine rate at triple-A. What gives? It is certainly a sign that Britton is either off mechanically or lacks confidence in his stuff. Both are problems with solutions.
This, hopefully, is where Dave Wallace, the Orioles new Pitching Coach, can help. It is no secret that General Manager Dan Duquette values biomechanics, which is why Rick Peterson was hired as the Director of Pitching. But, it is also no secret that Buck Showalter and Rick Adair had little use for Peterson’s program or work.
Before the 2013 season at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, I asked Showalter about the success Peterson had and how the communication between Adair and Peterson benefitted the whole organization. Showalter’s response, “Rick Adair is doing a fine job. You’ll never see him hold a press conference to boast how well his pitcher did.”
That was an obvious shot at Peterson, who is very open with the media and is a very vocal supporter of biomechanics. Peterson had worked with Britton and had shifted his position on the rubber, which elicited good results in 2012 in the Minor Leagues and resulted in an uptick in Britton’s strikeout rate. Adair shifted Britton back to the other side.
Wallace, who has a decorated resume with developing talent, will need to work hand in hand with Peterson so that one direction is given. For someone like Zach Britton to succeed, this is vital. By all accounts, Wallace is a communicator and has targeted Britton as someone to be a project. This is a wise decision. With one elite skill–the ability the elicit ground balls–Zach Britton has the ability to be a successful Major League pitcher. He won’t be an ace, but he can be a viable number four or five starter for a long time.
Heading into his prime seasons, Britton’s time is now. Hopefully, a new Pitching Coach, better communication, and the trust of the organization will allow Britton to refine his mechanics and gain the confidence to attack with his fastball like he did during his rookie season. If so, the Orioles have a cost efficient and valuable commodity under their control during his prime years. For a team starved for pitching, they have one asset that they can’t afford to overlook.
Orioles Analyst
First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.