Every year, the fan bases of every team enter the year with a variety of “if” questions about different players. “If [insert player] doesn’t get injured, our secondary could rebound this year!” or “If [insert rookie] can be productive immediately, our team could have a top five offense!”
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These players are “hinge players”, or X factors that the team is relying on. These aren’t necessarily the best players on the team, but the ones with the highest variance in their level of play. If these players play well, the team will almost certainly have a successful year, but if they play badly, they could miss the playoffs or worse.
So who are the high-variance players that the Ravens will rely on next year to be successful?
Defensive line – Timmy Jernigan
Last year, the Ravens defensive identity was an unrelenting, smashmouth pass rush that was by some measures the best in the league. And while the core of that pass rusher remains in the edge rushing duo of Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, the team lost a lot of important pieces from that unit. Haloti Ngata, one of the most mobile pass-rushing defensive lineman in the league, is now a Detroit Lion, and Pernell McPhee, the versatile rushing Swiss army knife that could be lined up anywhere, is now a Chicago Bear (oh my!). This leaves the Ravens lacking for the interior line pressure that elevated the Ravens pass rush from very good to best in the league last year.
The best player with a chance to fill this void is the second year player Timmy Jernigan. Jernigan filled in nicely when Ngata was suspended last year, and showed a high aptitude for interior pass rushing when on the field. Both of the examples below resulted in sacks.
Jernigan only played 312 snaps last year. Expect that number to skyrocket this year as the Ravens try to replace Ngata and McPhee’s production. Rookie players often stagnate when asked to take a bigger role their second year in the league. If the Ravens hope to make sure they still have an elite pass rushing unit, Jernigan is going to have extend his impressive production from a limited sample to the entire year.
Linebacker – CJ Mosley
The Ravens linebacking corps is one of the most stable units on the entire team. The Ravens excel at rushing the passer and stopping the run in large part because of the contributions of the team’s linebackers. Suggs and Dumervil provide the same consistent pass rush they have provided for years. And Daryl Smith and CJ Mosely provide consistent production, from cleaning up running lanes to providing effective coverage. With few exceptions, this group played well every Sunday, and there is little chance they backslide next year.
But if this group does backslide, it will probably be because of some regression from Mosley. That is not to say I don’t have confidence in Mosley. It’s hard to dismiss the team’s tackler and linebacker lynchpin as benefiting from a “small sample size”. But if Mosley does take a step back, the reverberations will be felt throughout the whole defense.
Secondary – Jimmy Smith
After the Ravens pass catchers, the secondary is almost certainly the weakest unit on the entire team. And that unit is headlined by the much-talented and often-injured Jimmy Smith. Smith is a Pro Bowl worthy talent, and when on the field he can shut down opposing number one wide receivers and single-handedly elevate the entire secondary.
This type of shutdown cornerback is especially important in the AFC North. Even if the Ravens were able to somehow find productive cornerbacks off the scrapheap to replace a hypothetical Jimmy Smith injury, the type of “it takes a village” coverage where there a bunch of good not great defensive backs is uniquely ill-suited for our division. The Ravens face off against two top-five wide receivers in Antonio Brown and A.J. Green every year. Without Jimmy Smith, the Ravens chances against their top two division rivals plummet.
It is as simple as this: if Smith is healthy, the Ravens secondary will probably be average or better than average. If Smith is injured, the Ravens secondary will probably be a disaster.
Pass catchers – Breshad Perriman
Led by Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, and Owen Daniels, the Ravens passing attack in 2014 was one of the best in the league, ranking fourth in passing DVOA. However, Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels are now gone. While we generally know what we will get out of Steve Smith on a game to game basis, the much bigger question is whether rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams can approximate the production lost by the departures of Torrey and Daniels.
Perriman is an especially interesting case. Like Torrey Smith when he entered the league, he is a speedy and physically gifted prospect who has trouble catching the ball. Whether Perriman can translate his physical abilities to the field and show the same deep playmaking ability and propensity to draw defensive pass interference penalties will go a long way in determining whether the Ravens have a successful offense next year.
Offensive line – Ricky Wagner
Offensive lines can be fickle things. Chemistry and communication is so important across the entire line that a change in one place can wreck an elite offensive line unit or make a bad line suddenly start offering premier pass protection.
The Ravens are a great illustration of this. The Ravens probably had the worst offensive line in 2013. Not only was it bad, it might have been one of the worst lines in the history of the NFL. But by the end of the year, the Ravens offensive line was one of the premier units in the entire NFL, and players that were awful in 2013 were suddenly playing great throughout 2014.
The most noticeable difference in offensive line play was in Ricky Wagner. Wagner was one of the several bad options that played for the offensive line during the 2013 campaign. When he was slotted in as starting right tackle in 2014, I thought there was a chance the Ravens would be as bad as the previous year. But Wagner played a level just below being worthy of Pro Bowl consideration and even received a vote for the All-Pro team.
The efficacy of offensive lines as a propensity to change quickly throughout a season. All it takes is one injury or one regression for the whole thing to fall apart. And given the importance of right tackle and his relative inexperience, Wagner should be viewed as a bellwether for the effectiveness of the entire offensive line.
Will is a Ravens fan born and raised in Baltimore, Maryland. He has previously written for Baltimore Beatdown at SB Nation. He is currently a senior at St. Mary’s of Maryland.