Orioles Rule 5 Preview: Tough Decisions to Make

Over the coming weeks, the Baltimore Orioles will have to make several tough decisions regarding their 40-man roster. Some of the team’s top prospects are eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft, meaning that the organization will have to make some moves to protect them with 40-man roster spots and ensure that they are not chosen by other teams.

Per MLB’s Rule 5 procedures, players who originally signed “when they were 19 or older and have played in professional baseball for four years are eligible, as are players who were signed at 18 and have played for five years.” For this year, that means that many of the first-time eligible players were either drafted out of college in 2017, or high school in 2016.

Just how strong is this year’s class of Rule 5 eligible players? Seven players were listed among the Orioles’ Top-30 prospects in our July rankings, and several fall just outside of that group. In addition, a few are considered close to major-league ready, or at least have put together successful stretches in the minors.

To analyze how the Orioles could proceed with protecting players over the offseason, I have broken the Rule 5-eligible players into three categories: Those I see as locks to be added to the 40-man roster, players that are on the bubble, and some who look unlikely to be added but are nonetheless intriguing prospects. I vetted Rule 5 eligibility using player pages on FanGraphs, but if you see any possible omissions, drop a comment in our message board and I’ll address them there.

(You can discuss this on the BSL board here.)

Locks

Yusniel Diaz, Outfielder                                                

Initially viewed as the centerpiece of the package of players the Orioles received from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Manny Machado in July 2018, Diaz is Rule-5 eligible for the first time. Injuries have limited his development thus far, but he has shown promise when healthy and profiles as someone who could develop into a solid everyday outfielder—with his arm strength making him a good fit in right field. Diaz will likely start next season at Triple-A Norfolk, but a healthy and productive start there would force the Orioles to make room for him at the major-league level before too long.

Zac Lowther, Left-handed starter                               

Lowther has been nothing but consistent since being drafted out of Xavier in 2017, putting together one successful season after another as a starter in the minor leagues. He has yet to receive time in Triple-A, so the Orioles—who show a preference for giving their prospects time at the minor’s highest level before promoting them to the majors—will likely put him there to start next season. Though there is debate among analysts about whether Lowther profiles best as a reliever or a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, he is simply too polished for the Orioles to risk losing in the Rule 5 Draft.

Michael Baumann, Right-handed starter                   

Entering 2020, Baumann looked like a potential breakout candidate, thanks to a 2019 season that saw him post strong numbers across High-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie. He worked out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in Bowie this summer before being shutdown after suffering a right flexor strain in late August, but the Orioles reportedly do not believe it will have serious long-term implications and expect him to be ready by spring training. Provided that he is in good health, Baumann should open 2021 in Norfolk’s rotation and could be pitching for the Orioles by mid-summer if he turns in solid Triple-A numbers.

Rylan Bannon, Infielder                                                   

Had the 2020 minor-league season not been cancelled, it is easy to imagine that Bannon would have built off of his strong 2019 and made a case for an in-season promotion to Baltimore. While that is obviously not how things unfolded, Bannon is still a solid hitter who could prove to be a valuable role player because of his defensive versatility. The Orioles should protect him this offseason, let him return to Norfolk to start 2021 (he logged a brief stint there in 2019) and position him to reach the major-league roster when an opening arises. If they fail to protect him, it is easy to see another team taking a chance on Bannon by experimenting with him as a bench option who could take over at second base or third base—the two positions where he has the most experience—if needed.

Zach Pop, Right-handed reliever

Along with Diaz, Bannon, and right-handed pitcher Dean Kremer, Pop was a noteworthy prospect the Orioles received for Machado. Pop might have been the first among those prospects to reach the majors had he not required Tommy John surgery after suffering an elbow injury early in the 2019 season. By the time the 2021 campaign begins, Pop will not have pitched in competitive game action in two years, so any team taking him in the Rule 5 Draft with hopes that he can stick in the majors all of next year would be taking a major risk. However, Pop could be a risk worth taking, as his fastball touched 100 mph before the injury, he has the stuff to develop into an effective late inning reliever and is reportedly on track in his rehab. That could prompt the Orioles to protect him, with hopes that a successful recovery from his surgery makes him another emerging arm in their talented young relief corps.

Isaac Mattson, Right-handed reliever

One of three pitching prospects acquired from the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Dylan Bundy last offseason, Mattson worked out at the Orioles’ alternate training site this summer and never received any major-league time. That said, he is one of the more polished relievers in the Orioles system and did post a 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 110 strikeouts in 73.1 innings pitched across High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A during the 2019 campaign. How the Orioles sort through their bullpen depth over the offseason could determine whether Mattson makes the cut, but I imagine he is a player that the organization is concerned it would lose in the Rule 5 Draft. He was also part of a return in a trade for a major-league starter just a year ago, and his placement at the alternate training site shows that the Orioles are high on him.

On the Bubble

Alex Wells, Left-handed starter

In a different year, I would view Wells as a lock, but this off-season’s class of first-time Rule 5-eligible pitchers is exceptionally strong and the Orioles will only have so many spots available. Wells’ ceiling is not as high as any of the starting pitchers listed above—he came in 22^nd on our July list, with the then-unranked Mattson being the only pitcher from the previous category to place behind him— he lacks Pop’s high velocity, and, unlike Mattson, he did not workout at the club’s alternate training site this summer. However, he has displayed pinpoint control throughout his career, and leaves some hope of developing into a back-of-the-rotation starter or solid reliever who finds success with a mix of pitches that includes a fastball that typically runs in the high 80s, along with a curveball, slider, and changeup. If he does not make the 40-man, it might speak more to the number of players the Orioles must make room for than it does his track record.

Brian Gonzalez, Left-handed reliever

Gonzalez’s case is an interesting one. On one hand, he has slipped through the last two Rule 5 Drafts without being selected and did not have a chance to boost his prospect stock with competitive game action in 2020. On the other hand, he reportedly impressed the organization during his time at the alternate training site this summer. That came off a 2019 that saw Gonzalez—a third-round selection who was the Orioles’ top pick in the 2014 draft—improve after a move to the bullpen. The Orioles could add Gonzalez to give themselves more left-handed bullpen depth, but they might also get away with leaving him unprotected if their internal assessment is better than what other organizations’ reports have to say. Regardless, the Orioles could have to make a decision on his future soon, as he has spent six full seasons in the organization and could hit free agency.

Mason McCoy, Infielder

McCoy’s chances of making the 40-man could come down to how much the Orioles value his solid defense at second base and shortstop, and whether they believe another organization views the former sixth-round pick as someone that can hold on to to a reserve role in the majors for all of 2021. While McCoy broke out with a solid season at the plate between Frederick and Bowie in 2019, he unfortunately did not get the chance to build off of that in 2020, leaving questions about whether his bat will develop enough to make him an everyday player in the majors. Should the Orioles shakeup their infield depth in the coming weeks, they might find room for both Bannon and McCoy, who would be among a talented slate of infielders to open next season at Norfolk.

Brett Cumberland, Catcher

Cumberland was barely on my radar when I started working on this story, but a recent report from Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun labeled him and Gonzalez as “off-the-radar” players “who might not have the prospect profile but have thrived under the new player development system and are valued members of the organization.” Drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 2016 and traded to the Orioles as part of the Kevin Gausman/Darren O’Day deal in July 2018, Cumberland has had a reputation throughout his career as a bat-first catcher. He has only played 75 games in the Orioles system, but he did post some solid numbers at the plate (14.6 BB%, .395 OBP, 144 wRC+) over a 41-game sample at Bowie in 2019. My gut instinct is that the Orioles can afford to leave Cumberland unprotected (as they did last year), with hopes that a healthy season in the high minors next year puts him in line for a major-league bench role. However, if the organization is high on him internally and fears that another club views him as a worthy Rule 5 choice, it could make some surprising maneuvers to fit him on the 40-man.

Worth Noting

Brenan Hanifee, Right-handed starter

Hanifee posted less-than-stellar results as he struggled with command issues at Frederick in 2019, but some observers believed he was a bounce back candidate in 2020. He ultimately did not get a chance to shake off his struggles in competitive game action, and now finds himself Rule 5 eligible for the first time at just age 22. Unless there is a team that views Hanifee as a young, unproven talent that they are willing to work with, I think he will still be a part of the Orioles system following the Rule 5 Draft. If that is indeed the case, he will once again be in the conversation next season as a bounce back candidate.

Cody Sedlock, Right-handed reliever

Entering last year’s Rule 5 Draft, Sedlock looked like a player the Orioles could lose after leaving him unprotected. The former first rounder ultimately went unselected, perhaps because concerns over his extensive injury history and inconsistent production in the minors outweighed his numbers (2.84 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 95 innings) over a resurgent 2019 season spent between Frederick and Bowie. Since he went unchosen last year and did not get a chance in 2020 to prove that his 2019 numbers were a sign of better things to come, the Orioles will probably count on him remaining in the organization without a 40-man roster spot. If that is indeed the case, he will give the club relief depth at the high levels of the minors and could work his way into the major-league bullpen with a healthy and productive start to the 2021 season.