What a difference a year makes! After a 96 win season, and reaching the American League Championship Series in 2014; the Baltimore Orioles are 6 games under .500 (65-71), and in 4th place in the American League East.

The O’s are 6.5 games out of the 2nd Wild Card (Texas), with 6 teams in-between them and the Rangers.

As there will be no return to the post-season this year, the focus turns to 2016. Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Dan Szymborski (ESPN) for his thoughts on the questions the O’s will be facing this off-season.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: Based on the current assumption that Executive VP of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette will not be leaving the organization; what would you prioritize as the number one thing for the O’s to accomplish this Winter? An extension for Machado? Resigning Davis? Other?

Szymborski:  Signing Machado. Time is running out and the longer the O’s wait, the more expensive it will be. He’s the one player in the organization that they simply can’t replace, you can’t just develop another Manny Machado as he’s a generational type of player. And if they can’t sign Machado, then they have to give serious consideration to trading him for a gigantic package.

Baltimore Sports and Life: A 7 year deal for Machado would buy out his first 4 seasons of Free Agency, and give him the opportunity for another large contract in his early 30s. If the O’s offered him 7 years, $180M; does he say yes? Do those numbers look right to you?

Szymborski: I think it’s very possible that they could get him for 7/180 offered now – he’s a superstar player that’s years from his prime, but he still has three years until free agency. The biggest issue is that the team just doesn’t have much leverage at this point – the cheap years are already gone and given that he’s already had a signing bonus over $5 million, he ought to be in better financial straits than most players in his situation.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Last January, we asked Neil Weinberg (FanGraphs), and David Schoenfield (ESPN) what type of contract they would anticipate Davis signing for this coming off-season if Davis produced a 4.5 fWAR season in ’15. (The idea being somewhere between his 2012 and 2013 numbers.) Both analysts stated south of $100M, with Schoenfield suggesting 5 years, $80M. As of Labor Day, Davis is at 3.7 fWAR. What type of deal do you anticipate Davis signing for?

Szymborski: I’d suggest he gets something between 4/60 and 4/70, kinda like Nelson Cruz. Though I could be too conservative about some team making a really stupid offer – I did not envision, for instance, Shin-Soo Choo getting anywhere near what he did.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Should the O’s lose Davis, it’s plausible to think they may look for another impact bat elsewhere. Some of the best options would be the FA OF’s Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Jayson Heyward, and Yoenis Cespedes. Obviously the production, appeal, and contract would vary with each. If the O’s were to pursue one, who would you suggest they go after, and what contract would you offer?

Szymborski: Heyward and Gordon (assuming the latter declines the player option) are the more attractive players to me. They have a skillset that’s less likely to be part of a bidding war and the O’s aren’t giving out many $120 million contracts.

Baltimore Sports and Life: The overall profile of the O’s since 2012 has been pretty consistent. An offense reliant on it’s slugging, with middling on-base % skills. A strong defense, mediocre starting pitching, and a quality bullpen. To me, the primary difference of the ’14 and ’15 O’s was the performance of the starting rotation (and an improved AL East).

What do you see as the biggest difference in these last two seasons? What do you think has to change going forward (if you do think change has to happen) with how the O’s have profiled these last 4 years?

Szymborski: For one, the team isn’t getting much out of the rotation. While the O’s have struggled to get an ace type in the rotation, it had been at least a rotation that was generally adequate from top to bottom. This year, Wei-Yin Chen is the only starter with an ERA+ above 100. While the bullpen’s still very good, it’s tougher to make do with the rotation when the team is only sixth in runs scored instead of third or so. Also, Pythagoras has been mean to the O’s this year with the team five games worse than their run differential. I keep telling people that exceeding Pythag isn’t a predictive thing, but nobody seems to believe me!

Baltimore Sports and Life: There is an assumption from most in Baltimore that the O’s will not resign Wei-Yin Chen. While not elite, his innings would need to be replaced (As is, the O’s rotation will be comprised of Tillman, Jimenez, Gausman, Gonzalez, and a TBD 5th.) At the high end of the market, the O’s could pursue a Jordan Zimmermann, or a Jeff Samardzija. More realistic is going after the best available veteran, that would only be capable of receiving a 1 or 2 year deal. Who could you see fitting that description?

Szymborski: I’d love to see the O’s get Doug Fister. He’s having a real down season but if he’s on, the team’s excellent defensive infield could really maximize his value. The basic problem is that pitchers that receive one or two year contracts are, on the whole, just not all that exciting.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Britton has emerged as one of the league’s best relievers. 2015 Rookies Mike Wright, and Mychal Givens both showed their plus arms this year, and will likely join Britton, and the productive Brach in the O’s pen next year. Should the O’s attempt to resign O’Day? The reliever has been high quality each year of his career he has been healthy, but turns 33 in October. Is 2 years, $15M realistic for O’Day, or do you see him getting more on the open market?

Szymborski: I think at that price, you have to move on – the O’s simply aren’t going to be a $200 million team so it’s tough to spend $7-$8 million on individual relievers. And it pains me to say it as the O’s have such an awesome history with submariners (Todd Frohwirth, Chad Bradford, Mark Eichhorn, etc.)

Baltimore Sports and Life: In a survey of 28 Media Members before the 2015 season, 19 said the O’s should pursue an extension with Wieters. I think what we can expect is that the O’s will offer him a qualifying offer. If a qualifying offer is made, do you see him accepting that, or turning it down? Wieters back for a year would not be a horrible outcome, but Caleb Joseph has shown to be a very capable option (especially if you buy into pitch framing metrics). How do you see the O’s catcher situation playing out, and what would be the best outcome?

Szymborski:  I see the O’s making a qualifying offer for Wieters, Wieters turning it down, and the team signing a veteran catcher to a 1-or-2 year deal to split time with Joseph.

Baltimore Sports and Life: In the middle-infield the O’s have JJ Hardy and Jonathan Schoop.

’14, and especially ’15 has been a real struggle for Hardy offensively. For his career he’s always been a guy with pop, and low on-base skills. These last two years his ISO has been way down from career norms, as he has had trouble turning on balls. Some thought being that a lingering back issue has been the cause. Though to be fair, if back troubles have impacted at him at the plate, they have not hurt his defense which has remained elite. What percentage chance would you give the 33 year old of an offensive rebound (back to career norms) in ’16?

Schoop built off of his extended playing experience last year, and has taken a leap in Year 2. He has power, hits for average, is strong around the bag, and has as good of an arm as any 2nd baseman. The O’s will be hoping his BB to K rate improves going forward, but overall he has the look of a future All-Star.

Thoughts on the O’s duo going into next year?

Szymborski: I think Schoop will be fine. He’s always going to be a low-OBP guy, but a low-OBP middle infielder that can play defense and hit for some power is a really good player. I’m optimistic on Hardy having some kind of bounce-back year, though not likely all the way to his career averages.

Baltimore Sports and Life: July acquisition Gerardo Parra has some pop, and the ability to play all 3 OF positions. I was hoping the O’s could quickly get a 2 year done with him, as that would give them some added flexibility. I’m now wondering if Parra might get more years (4?) than I first anticipated. What type of deal do you see him getting?

Szymborski: I’d expect someone to give Parra 4/45 or something.

Baltimore Sports and Life: Whatever (positional adjustments?) led to the positive shift in Jones’ advanced defensive metrics last year was sustained here in ’15. I find Jones boring to discuss (but easy to appreciate) because you know what you are going to get from him. Any thoughts on the O’s CF?

Szymborski: I would not read too much into yearly trends in defensive numbers as defensive stats are just so volatile that even if there’s signal in small sample sizes (and a season is a pretty small sample size for defensive numbers, akin to about two months of offensive stats) it’s very hard to actually find it. I think the more likely explanation is that Jones was never as bad as his worst defensive statistics and maybe not quite as good as his last two. There’s also been significant disagreement between the two most-used systems – I still put Adam Jones in the solidly-average-but-overrated-by-many category.

Baltimore Sports and Life: By the Winter Meetings in early December, the Baltimore Orioles should have accomplished what?

Szymborski: Made an organizational decision whether to invest heavily in the team to try to win now or start a rebuilding process. The O’s roster, as currently constructed for 2016 isn’t really a contender. Baseball-Reference already has the team at $82.5 million baked in for 2016 when you consider arbitration, so the team’s going to have trouble simply spending to make up for losses, especially when that would just get the team *back to* where they are today, which is a .500 or so team in overall quality. And the farm system has mostly dried up, so they can’t count on replacements from the minors. One of the major causes of that depressing post-1997 decade is that the team refused to choose a direction, so unsurprisingly, they never found one.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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